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| Wednesday, August 7, 2024 |
| It's Vikings Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my baseline team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (16th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 25.7 (17th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 16.4 (27th) |
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| Notable coaching changes: |
| Nothing to see here! |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Nothing here either! |
| Generally speaking, continuity is a good thing. The infrastructure is in place. The organization continues to signal its belief in the Kevin O'Connell-led coaching staff. |
| Minnesota's offensive line returns all five starters from what was an above-average unit. This line is headlined by left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who has developed into one of the best young linemen in the NFL after the Vikings drafted him in Round 1 in 2021. Between Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill on the right side, Minnesota may have the league's best tackle combination. |
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| This offense has been a print shop for Fantasy points during O'Connell's tenure, particularly in the passing game. |
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| Those are the splits for O'Connell's career as a coordinator or head coach. Since joining the Vikings, O'Connell has passed 67% of the time in the red zone and produced 67% of total touchdowns via the pass. |
| Maybe O'Connell's initial two years as a coordinator are relevant as we look forward to a 2024 season without Kirk Cousins, though. O'Connell may well have evolved since then, but his first two offenses did not pass the ball at a high rate. In fact, the 2020 Rams (KOC's second season as an OC) produced just one more passing touchdown (20) than rushing touchdowns (19). That wasn't a Todd Gurley season. The passing offense just didn't work very well and the Rams leaned into the ground game. |
| In 2023, the Vikings were notably less pass-heavy without Cousins on the field. |
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| Things did look a bit different for Minnesota without Cousins, of course. |
| Justin Jefferson remained the same. In four healthy games without Cousins, Jefferson averaged 22 PPR points. He drew double-digit targets in all four games. |
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| Justin Jefferson sure looks like the best WR on the planet to my eyes |
| I've been watching 'Receiver' featuring Jefferson, Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle . It has been a much-needed reminder that 'Jets,' as Jefferson calls his on-field alter-ego, may truly be capable of transcending the offensive environment. The Davante Adams-focused moments in the documentary serve as a good reminder that even the best sometimes have no control over their circumstance. I do expect Jefferson's production to be impacted by the changes occurring around him in 2024. I am projecting the Vikings for 25 passing touchdowns after this offense has produced 30 in each of the past two seasons. The overall size of the receiving totals that Jefferson takes a percentage of is likely going to be smaller than ever before in his career. And I can envision a scenario where things get ugly for a Sam Darnold-led Vikings offense. Darnold has been so bad! I know that KOC is great at his job, but I don't feel any level of confidence in Darnold. |
| I looked up the play-action splits for Minnesota's two quarterback candidates because the Vikings have used a ton of play-action over the past two seasons. What I found for J.J. McCarthy was pretty exciting! What I found for Darnold was a simple reminder -- oh yeah, he has been the worst quarterback among players who hit the minimum opportunity threshold. |
| As a quick aside, you can find play-action splits for McCarthy and Darnold below. The Vikings ran 32 more play-action plays than the second-highest team in 2023. |
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| Let's get back to Jefferson. He seriously seems impossible to cover. He could simply continue to post massive Fantasy scores, regardless of who is at QB. O'Connell is highly competent, and he's motivated to get Jefferson the ball as much as possible. |
| 'Jets' is probably gonna be just fine. |
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| What about the rest of the pass-catchers? |
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| The way that I'm projecting this offense leaves Jefferson as the lone Fantasy survivor. When T.J. Hockenson returns, he has a chance to be Fantasy-relevant. But he projects as more of a fringe Fantasy option as a member of a more balanced and lower-scoring offense. Jefferson might be able to transcend a decrease in total routes and targets; he's one of the most efficient route runners of all time. Hockenson has been reliant on heavy target volume. |
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| I'm out on Jordan Addison for 2024 Fantasy too. |
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| This feels is one of the least-appealing backfields for Fantasy |
| We're leaving this team preview on a rather bleak note. These are all Fantasy-specific notes, though. Aaron Jones is awesome. He's one of my favorite running backs to watch, and he was still highly effective when healthy in 2023. Kevin O'Connell is awesome. J.J. McCarthy might be awesome. This offensive line is good. This absolutely might be a fun and exciting team to watch play football in the year 2024. |
| It is the team that I have the least exposure to in Fantasy. |
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| The Vikings have deprioritized the running back position under O'Connell, which likely is connected to the awesome pass-catching talent at the other positions but also could be related to the lack of talent at the actual RB spot relative to other teams. Jones could change the way that O'Connell uses the RB position. My median projection accounts for a shift back towards more running back usage for this offense, but not a dramatic one. And so, Jones looks sort of similar to Brian Robinson (with slightly better efficiency) in my projections. He projects sort of similarly to D'Andre Swift but with a lower range of projected targets. I project Ty Chandler mixing in, and there are simply not enough touchdowns to go around on an offense that I have projected for just the 27th-most rushing scores. |
| McCarthy is an intriguing pick for Superflex formats. If you want to bet on KOC's offense at a discount, this may be your only opportunity to do so in redraft formats. I expect McCarthy to play well when given opportunities. For Dynasty purposes, this season might present an awesome point in time to attempt to acquire Jefferson in trades. If Minnesota's offense looks rough early on, Jefferson might become available. That's rare. He is so good that he usually is simply off of the table when it comes to Dynasty trades. Similar logic could be applied to Addison or Hockenson if you want to bet on their long-term success. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday this season! Thursday, we will be covering the Detroit Lions, our final team preview! What a ride it has been! If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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