What we're watching today

Expect details of a new spending plan, updates on big bargains and a vision fueling the governor's reelection bid. Gov. Janet Mills has not begun campaigning yet ahead of her likely November showdown with former Gov. Paul LePage if you define campaigning as bus tours, downtown walks and speeches. Make no mistake: She is campaigning and the public-facing part starts in earnest with tonight's State of the State address.
The path toward this speech has been vintage Mills, coming in careful steps. She spent much of the last year traveling to push pieces of her plan to spend federal COVID-19 aid that rescued states from financial calamity at the pandemic's start. More recently, she has been teasing pieces of her upcoming plan to spend a large part of Maine's aid-fueled $800 million surplus. Over the last week, she waded further into the almost intractable issues of utility regulation, child welfare and tribal rights to hunt for compromises.
Her spending plan should be at the heart of tonight's speech. Mills has already indicated a desire to deal with Republicans on a giveback to taxpayers. She has teased other agenda items, including nearly $8 million to supplement wages at nursing homes and a similar amount for child welfare changes. Both of those items should be broadly supported.
But there is bound to be conflict. Republicans want at least half the surplus set aside for that giveback and have little incentive in an election year to settle for the governor's first offer. Top Democrats reeling from a ream of Mills vetoes will want to put their mark on an ultimate plan. They also want a $145 million state pension increase to account for recent inflation.
The governor also has not locked down her recent compromise proposals. Her utility accountability proposal was a shot at Central Maine Power Co., but those who want it replaced with a consumer-owned utility are still pursuing their plan. Many lawmakers want to be more aggressive on child welfare. Tribes that have sunk money and effort into their sovereignty push may not want to settle for less and progressives are on their side with the governor more skeptical.
As pomp and circumstance return to the State House, Mills will try to link all of this to an implicit cases for four more years. Republicans will dismiss it as a campaign speech. They always are in an election year, though. The policy environment around this one makes it all the more unusual with Mills looking to rally both flanks on some things, bring her party together on others and then convince Mainers to elect her over LePage.

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