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| Thursday, November 7, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I don't know how it happened, but the 2024 NFL season is officially halfway done. There are 18 weeks in the season, and nine of them are already in the books. |
| Since we're at the halfway point, we decided we're going to celebrate that today by having a midseason extravaganza: Not only will we be making some midseason Super Bowl predictions, but we'll also be handing out some midseason grades and making some bold predictions for the second half of the season. And of course, we'll also be breaking down the huge game in Baltimore between the Bengals and Ravens. |
| Basically, we have a busy day, so let's get to the rundown. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Bengals at Ravens |
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| For the second straight season, the NFL is sending the Bengals (4-5) to Baltimore in November for a Thursday night game. Last year, Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury in Baltimore. This year, he'll be looking to help the Bengals pull off an upset in a game where the Ravens (6-3) are favored by 6.5 points. |
| Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident: |
| Why the Bengals can win: When these two teams faced each other in Week 5, Joe Burrow threw for 392 yards and five touchdowns, and don't be surprised if he has another big game because not much has changed since then. The Ravens still have the worst passing defense in the NFL, and because of that, there's a very real chance Burrow could go off. If that happens, it could put the Bengals in a position to pull off the upset. The Ravens did win 41-38 in Week 5, but that only happened after Cincinnati missed a game-winning field goal attempt in overtime. Why the Ravens can win: The Ravens offense has been steamrolling everyone it has faced this year. Not only do the Ravens rank first in the NFL in rushing yards per game, but they also rank third in passing yards per game. With Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson leading the way, this offense put up a season-high 520 yards against the Bengals in Week 5 and there's no reason they can't do it again. Since that meeting, they've also added Diontae Johnson, which should make their offense even better. The Ravens should be able to move the ball against a Bengals defense that hasn't been great this year, and if Cincinnati can't slow Baltimore down, it could be a long night for the Bengals. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Tyler Sullivan by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. |
| ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Mike Gesicki OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM): The Bengals tight end has had two of his best games of the season over the past two weeks. In Week 8, he caught seven passes for 73 yards in a loss to the Eagles. In Week 9, he caught five passes for 100 yards in a win over the Raiders. Joe Burrow seems to have gotten really comfortable throwing to Gesicki, and with Tee Higgins not expected to play tonight, I could see the tight end having another big game. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Justin Tucker OVER 7.5 points (-125 at BetMGM): Justin Tucker got off to a slow start this year, but since the calendar flipped to October, he's been on fire. In Baltimore's five games since Oct. 1, Tucker has gone over 7.5 points four out of five times. He's also hit 10 of 11 field goals and 100% of his extra points since Oct. 1 after opening the season with three field goal misses in the first three weeks. Tucker is back to being good, and I think we could see him score in double digits, which is what happened when he scored 11 points against the Bengals back in Week 5. |
| And in case you're wondering, my props are 25-16 on the season (12-7 on kicker props and 13-9 on all other props). |
| We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here. |
| And finally, here are our picks for the game. |
| PICKS FOR 'TNF' |
Sullivan's pick: Ravens 30-23 over Bengals
Prisco's pick: Ravens 34-33 over Bengals
My pick: Bengals 34-31 over Ravens |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here. |
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| 2. Midseason Super Bowl predictions: Lions and Ravens are the most popular picks to get to New Orleans |
| With the NFL season officially at the midpoint, we've decided that now is the perfect time to hand out some Super Bowl predictions. We've been able to watch each team play for nine weeks, and after watching all 32 teams, it seems we can't really agree on who's going to win it all. |
| We had 22 experts make a midseason Super Bowl prediction and picked six different teams to take home the Lombardi Trophy. That's how wide open things are this year. |
| The Lions were the most popular team with 17 out of 22 of us predicting that they'll end up in New Orleans playing in Super Bowl LIX. The Ravens garnered 11 Super Bowl votes, which made them the most popular pick to come out of the AFC. |
| Let's take a look at our predictions: |
| Lions over Ravens (5 votes): Jordan Dajani, Bryan DeArdo, Leger Douzable, Chris Trapasso, Ryan WilsonChiefs over Lions (4 votes): Jared Dubin, Tyler Sullivan, Amy Trask, Brock VereenRavens over Lions (4 votes): Cody Benjamin, Logan Ryan, Mike Renner, Kyle StackpoleLions over Chiefs (2 votes): Jeff Kerr, Joel Corry Packers over Chiefs (1 vote): Bryant McFaddenRavens over Eagles (1 vote): Emory HuntBills over Lions (1 vote): Josh EdwardsRavens over Packers (1 vote): Garrett PodellPackers over Bills (1 vote): Pete PriscoBills over Rams (1 vote): Will BrinsonBengals over Lions (1 vote): John Breech |
| Before everyone laughs at me for my prediction, I would like everyone to know that Lions-Bengals was my preseason prediction and I always stick with my preseason prediction for as long as possible, although I might have to change my mind about the Bengals if they lose to the Ravens. As a matter of fact, if they do lose, I'd probably switch my prediction to Lions over Bills. |
| I also would like to note that no one had any faith in the Lions BEFORE the season started. Only three of us predicted them to get to the Super Bowl in our preseason predictions and I was one of them. |
| Anyway, we also handed out midseason awards, including MVP, and you can check those out here. |
| But wait, there's more. We also took a stab at predicting ALL 14 teams that will make the playoffs this year and you can check that out here. |
| 3. Bold predictions for the second half of the season |
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| Now that we've made our midseason Super Bowl predictions, we've got a few more midseason predictions coming your way, but they have nothing to do with the Super Bowl. Instead, Tyler Sullivan has some bold predictions about what's going to happen in the NFL over the final nine weeks of the season. |
| Let's check out three of the predictions on his list: |
| Chiefs go undefeated. "With the offense getting in stride to match a defense that has been stout throughout the first half of the year, they may be favored to win their remaining games. Possibly, their biggest test comes in Week 11 when they travel to Buffalo to face the Bills. If they leave Orchard Park with a win to move to 10-0, they then face the Panthers (road), Raiders (home), Chargers (home) and Browns (road) over the following month. If they are undefeated at that juncture, they'll be tested against the Houston Texans at home before visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas before wrapping up the season in Denver against the Broncos in what could be a monumental Week 18 game if they are still without a loss. Oh, and Mahomes is 40-9 as a starter in November and December in his career." Derrick Henry sets single-season rushing record. "The NFL's single-season rushing record is held by Eric Dickerson, who ran for 2,105 yards in 1984. Exactly 40 years later, that record will be surpassed by Derrick Henry."Cardinals win the NFC West. "At the moment, they have a game edge over the Rams and Niners in the win column and, more importantly, own the head-to-head tiebreaker against each of them thanks to wins earlier in the season. Even if the Cardinals lose to them down the stretch, nullifying the tiebreaker, they have the third-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, which should keep the rest of the division at arm's length so long as they take care of their own business." |
| Sullivan actually came up with five bold predictions, and you can check out his full list here. |
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| 4. Midseason grades: Three teams get an 'A+' at the halfway point |
| We are going to end our midseason extravaganza by handing out some midterm grades. Jeff Kerr put on his professor hat and graded all 32 teams based on how they looked through the first nine weeks of the season. |
| Only three teams were given an A+, and we're going to spoil the fun by revealing those teams below: |
| Lions (7-1). "What else is there to say about the Lions right now? They are the best team in the NFC and the Chiefs' biggest threat to a three-peat. They are first in the NFL in points per game, finding ways to score in all three phases."Chiefs (8-0). "The Chiefs just appear inevitable at this point. ... This team just knows how to win, and is on top of the AFC for a reason. Andy Reid and Mahomes are the best head coach-quarterback duo in football for a reason." Commanders (7-2). "Give credit where credit is due. Jayden Daniels has been the savior the Commanders franchise has needed, having one of the greatest rookie seasons for a quarterback in NFL history. ... The Commanders are a threat to win the NFC East, and have a very bright future with Daniels. This team isn't going away." |
| If you want to know how the other 29 teams graded out, you can check out Kerr's full story here. |
| 5. NFL playoff projections heading into Week 10 |
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| Now that we're officially halfway through the season, I think that means we're allowed to talk about the playoffs, so that's exactly what we're going to do. |
| To figure out who's going to make the playoffs this year, we had Stephen Oh of SportsLine simulate the rest of the season. We then used those simulations to project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs. |
| Here's how our projection breaks down for both conferences: |
AFC
1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Ravens
4. Texans
5. Chargers
6. Steelers
7. Broncos |
NFC
1. Lions
2. Commanders
3. Falcons
4. 49ers
5. Eagles
6. Packers
7. Vikings |
| The craziest thing about these projections is that 13 of the 14 teams that currently hold a playoff spot are projected to get in. The only team team that got left out was the Cardinals. The Cards are currently in first place in the NFC West, but Oh has them missing the playoffs with the 49ers winning the division. Tyler Sullivan clearly didn't see Oh's projection before making his bold predictions. |
| According to Oh's projections, the Chiefs are currently the team favored to win it all. If you want more details on the projections, including the individual playoff chances for each team in the NFL, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Trevor Lawrence unlikely to play this week |
| It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Jaguars unlikely to have Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars QB is dealing with a left shoulder injury that is likely going to prevent him from playing against the Vikings on Sunday. If Lawrence can't go, that means Mac Jones will get the start for Jacksonville. Dak Precott could miss more than a month. The diagnosis on Prescott's injury is that his hamstring tendon tore off the bone (details here). According to ESPN , this means that Prescott will likely need more than a month to heal. If he's placed on injured reserve, he'd have to miss at least four games, but due to the serious nature of the injury, it's possible he might miss more time than that. With Prescott out, Cooper Rush will be starting this week, although our Garrett Podell made the argument that Dallas should start Trey Lance instead. Chuba Hubbard gets extension from Panthers. One of the very few bright spots for the Panthers this season has been the play of Hubbard, who ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing yards with 665. The Panthers have rewarded his play with a four-year, $33.2 million extension that includes $15 million in guaranteed money. Although Hubbard has played well, it's an interesting use of resources for a Carolina team that just spent a 2024 second-round pick on running back Jonathon Brooks. Browns' non-committal about Deshaun Watson's future. During an interview Wednesday, Browns general manager Andrew Berry wouldn't commit to Watson as the QB of the future. Berry was asked if he thought Watson would suit up again as the Browns' starting QB and he could have said "yes." Instead, he said it's "possible," which isn't exactly a resounding vote of confidence. You can read our full story on Berry's comments here. Texans unveiling new red uniforms. The Texans will be unveiling a new look Sunday night when they face the Lions. The Texans came out with new uniforms in April, and they'll be going with their new all-red look for the first time. Not only will they be wearing red pants and a red jersey, but they'll also have a red helmet. You can see the full look here . (They've worn all-red before; this is just the first time they're wearing the new version that was unveiled in April.) |
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