| Good morning from Berlin. Germany’s centre-right Christian Democrats won a convincing victory in Sunday's national election, despite a far-right surge. But it’s still not certain what the next coalition will look like or how long it will take to form. What we do know is that Friedrich Merz is almost certain to be the country’s next chancellor. What this means for Europe is slowly coming into focus. Europe was barely mentioned during the campaign, which centred on migration and the economy. But when Merz has mentioned Europe, his comments have generally been encouraging. "Europe is waiting for us, for Germany, to take on a stronger leadership role again," Merz, a former MEP, said on Sunday evening after his victory. He added that Europe should prioritise finding a common position on the US's negotiations with Russia over Ukraine and pursue a course that sounds a lot like Emmanuel Macron’s ‘strategic autonomy’. ”For me, it will be an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA," Merz said, noting that "the Americans, at least this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.” That’s easier said than done, especially for Germany, which is particularly reliant on the US for its security. Still, Merz appears to understand the challenges that lie ahead. If he gets his wish for a two-way coalition with the Social Democrats, making progress on the security front will likely be much easier than in a three-way tie-up with the Greens. One thing to watch is whether the SPD’s Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defence minister, will remain in that role. As the country’s most popular politician, Pistorius would be an easy partner for Merz and someone who could sell the need for substantially more defence spending to the German public. Сумна Річниця. Berlin's political shift coincides with the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as Kyiv will host a summit today drawing leaders from across Europe and beyond. Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s worst nightmare has started to materialise as the Western pledge to support Kyiv for "as long as it takes" becomes harder to fulfil, writes Alexandra Brzozowski. | 