Today's edition is brought to you by Pyth Network - the leading blockchain oracle that has powered over $700B in transaction volume across 400+ applications and 70+ blockchains. 

Get rewarded for protecting DeFi with Pyth.

GM. This is Milk Road – the daily newsletter that pokes the market with a stick, to check for signs of life.

(Ooop! It just groaned).

Here’s what we got for you today:

WHEN WILL MARKETS MOVE HIGHER? (PART 1.5) 📈

We have a problem…

Our Milk Road PRO researchers are asking for a raise.

Here’s how it started:

Back in a simpler time (May), the team published a PRO Report, titled:
PRO | When will markets move higher?

The article contained a $BTC chart with a circle marking a period of potential sideways chop in the (then) coming months…

(Flash forward, and…)

Here’s how it’s going:

This morning, the PRO research team took a victory lap in our private Discord channel, posting this updated chart. 👇

Along with the following message:

Now, here’s where we’re headed:

We’re not going to bore you with the intricacies of internal contract negotiations – but what we will do is take a look at past cycles in order to gauge potential future movements.

1/ In the 2015-17 bull market we experienced close to a year of upward trending chop in the middle

2/ From 2019-21, we experienced a similar stretch of chop in the middle, w/ added volatility from COVID

Bad news: We’re still yet to see ~1 year of sideways price action in this cycle.

Good news is: There isn’t some hard and fast rule that says we have to experience a full year of chop before taking off – and in both of the previous cycles, Q4 - specifically October - marked periods of recovery/acceleration.

…so where to from here?

We employed our own cutting edge chart technology, in which the study of past performance is paired with capacitive touch technology, to generate this output:

(Patent-pending. Past results are not indicative of future performance).

P.S. Want the inside word on potential market moves like this in the future?

👉 Join Milk Road PRO! 

It’s less than a Brisket Burrito Bowl w/ Chips, Guac, and a Mexican Coke at Chipotle per month (seriously, we checked – $25 vs. $25.80). 👇

(The only difference is, PRO will probably pay for itself).

THE MEMECOIN LOTTERY VS. THE REAL LOTTERY 🥊

Buying memecoins is often compared to playing the lottery.

(Don’t worry, we’re not about to dispute that).

How could we?

Just look at the percentages on that…

…what we will argue is that – if you’re going to play the lottery – you may as well play the crypto lottery!

Check this out…

On the surface, IRL lottery odds don’t look too bad: 3.61% of Powerball players win!

…but what that stat leaves out is this percentage represents winnings of $4 or less – meaning, at best, these players will profit $2 after the cost of their ticket is taken into account.

As for the jackpot? The chance of winning that is – wait for it – 0.0000003422313%.

(We had to hunt for a percentage calculator that would factor down to that decimal place).

So, zooming out…

While Powerball has a clearer pitch: “A chance to win a prize in the hundreds of millions.”

Vs. that of memecoins: “A percentage share of a combined market cap that varies wildly – the profit from which will vary based on when you buy/sell.”

When you look at the basic percentage chances and the end profits they represent:

Memecoins = 3% chance of making $1000 or more

Powerball = 3.61% chance of making $2 or less

Memecoins appear to make for a way better lottery.

(So at least crypto has that to be proud of 🙃)

PRO “WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?” INDICATORS 🤔 

You know what makes the Giant Drop ride at Six Flags so scary?

(Apart from the 227-foot free fall?).

It’s the fact that you don’t know when it’s going to happen…you’re just sitting there… waiting 👇

Funnily enough, you can get the same gut-wrenching feeling by trading crypto.

One way to manage your emotions when the market feels like it’s in a Giant Drop-style free fall, is to check where we’re at in the crypto cycle.

In fact, doing so isn’t just good for your nerves — it’s crucial for capturing the best opportunities.

The goal is to spot the bull market peak before the inevitable bear market hits your bags hard.

Since timing the top perfectly is almost impossible, we use various indicators to give us a better shot at taking profits before it's too late.

Below are the 5 indicators we track, with a color-coded system to show how close they are to signalling the market peak:

🟢 Plenty of room to run 🏄

🟡 Getting closer to the top signal, but haven’t yet reached the mark ⚠️

🔴 We’ve hit the market top indicator 🚨

Every Tuesday, we update these 5 indicators exclusively for PRO members.

Our advice? Don't wait for all of them to hit 🔴. It's better to take profits as they get closer to that point.

Let's dive in and see if we're anywhere near the top of this bull market. 👇

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

Franklin Templeton has filed an S-1 form with the SEC to launch a new crypto index ETF. This ETF would be the first to combine $BTC and $ETH into a single fund.

The SEC has appealed a recent ruling in the Ripple case, arguing that it conflicts with a Supreme Court precedent related to securities laws. The appeal aims to challenge the court's decision that Ripple's $XRP token sales were not securities transactions.

Japan’s MetaPlanet boosts bitcoin holding via options. By leveraging the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, MetaPlanet earned 24 Bitcoin by selling put options.

Aerodrome, a decentralized exchange on Base, has surpassed $1 billion in total deposits, establishing itself as the dominant DeFi player on the network. Aerodrome has been a core contributor in pushing Base’s TVL across $2B.

We’re thrilled to announce that we’ll be at Permissionless III and would love to meet up with fellow attendees! Grab your tickets here, and don’t forget to use code MILK30 for 30% off.

MILKY MEMES 🤣

RATE TODAY’S EDITION

ROADIE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🥛

VITALIK PIC OF THE DAY

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.