MEF Dispatch: U.S. Islamists Celebrate the Ceasefire; On-the-Ground Report from Syria; Time for Change in Iran

MEF Dispatch: U.S. Islamists Celebrate the Ceasefire; On-the-Ground Report from Syria; Time for Change in Iran

By Winfield Myers ● Jan 24, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 7 mins...1909 words

American Islamists show a callous indifference to the suffering of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Demonizing Israel and praising President Trump was job one at the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) following the ceasefire. Overseas, the new administration could seize an excellent opportunity to work with Cyprus to detect efforts by terrorists to smuggle weapons of all types—biological, chemical, or radioactive—through seaports and airports in the region.

Syria, a country now at war for 14 years, is not yet at peace, writes Jonathan Spyer upon his return to Damascus and other areas closed to most outsiders for years. He finds that Islamic governance is being introduced to daily life, albeit slowly and with some resistance. Separately, we offer an interview with a soldier from the losing side of Syria’s conflict who continues to defend Assad from refuge in Lebanon, then explore the opportunities created by Russia’s loss of its naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus.

We examine Iran’s deteriorating internal condition and conclude that the Trump administration can be more effective in engaging the Iranian people—battered by a failing economy and a domestic energy crisis—to the detriment of the regime in Tehran. But to succeed, Trump must fulfill his promise of returning to a policy of “maximum pressure.” Finally, we correct revisionist historians who distort the historical record of the Islamic conquests throughout the Middle East and beyond, a process that was anything but “peaceful.”

ICYMI: “Israel’s Urban Warfare in Gaza: A Technical Analysis” with John Spencer

John Spencer, a leading expert on urban warfare, has made four trips to observe the Israel Defense Forces in Gaza since Oct. 7, 2023, during which he has studied both its efficacy and its morality. Putting the IDF’s conduct in a larger perspective, he asks fundamental questions: How has it fared compared to other Western armies? What are the special circumstances in Gaza? From an ethical point of view, how does the IDF rank?

John Spencer has advised senior U.S. Army leaders, including four-star generals. A former infantry soldier and commander, Spencer served in the US Army for 25 years, during which he undertook two combat deployments to Iraq. He is the chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point. He has published three books, most recently, Understanding Urban Warfare, (Howgate Publishing, 2022), and many articles. Since October 7, he has written and spoken extensively on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. He holds a BA from Arizona State University and an MA from Georgetown University.

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U.S. Islamists Use Ceasefire to Blame Biden, Praise Trump, Demonize Israel

The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has sparked notable reactions from U.S. Islamist organizations, revealing their nefarious ambitions and motivations.

Why it matters: These narratives can sway the public perception of the reality of the conflict, while continuing to demonize Israel and excuse Hamas’s atrocities.

U.S. Islamists' rhetoric are likely to influence certain voter demographics in upcoming elections.

CAIR's narrative: The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) criticized Biden while praising Trump, aligning with Hamas's rhetoric.

CAIR's statement lacked empathy for Israeli hostages held by Hamas, focusing instead on condemning Israel.

DAWN's stance: Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN) very briefly acknowledged Hamas's war crimes but later shifted focus to demonizing Israel.

Their initial acknowledgment of Hamas's actions was notable, contrasting with other Islamist organizations' silence.

What's next: The future reaction of these organizations towards potential Trump policies remains uncertain.

A shift in rhetoric may occur if Trump's actions don't align with their expectations.

To read the full article, click here.

Cyprus’ CYCLOPS Is the Perfect Partnership for the Trump Age

The Cyprus Center for Land, Open-seas, and Port Security (CYCLOPS) stands as a pivotal security training hub for Middle Eastern and other U.S. partners in the Trump era.

Why it matters: CYCLOPS enhances regional security by equipping partners to combat smuggling and terrorism effectively.

Its strategic location in Cyprus offers logistical advantages, reducing risks associated with training visas.

Training capabilities: The facility provides realistic training environments, including mock-ups of ships and passport controls.

Trainees practice detecting threats in simulated scenarios, improving their skills in counter-terror and customs operations.

Cyprus's role: As a non-NATO member, Cyprus demonstrates its commitment to security by hosting CYCLOPS.

The island's geography limits illegal movement, making it an ideal training ground.

The bigger picture: By investing in CYCLOPS, the U.S. strengthens its proactive security measures and builds reliable partnerships.

Continued funding could significantly enhance the center's efficacy, preventing large-scale threats before they reach U.S. shores.

To read the full article, click here.

On the Road to Damascus: Battle for Peace Continues

As Syria navigates post-Assad governance, the emergence of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) raises questions about the future direction of the country.

Why it matters: The potential shift towards an Islamist regime under HTS could reshape Syria's political landscape, affecting regional stability.

HTS's governance style diverges from past regimes and maintains strict Islamic law principles.

HTS's governance: While avoiding ISIS's extremes, HTS imposes conservative Islamic laws reminiscent of its Idlib rule.

Public executions and gender segregation reflect ultra-conservative policies.

Regional dynamics: HTS's control is not absolute, with the Syrian Democratic Forces and other groups maintaining influence.

The challenge lies in balancing Islamist goals with international relations and local acceptance.

What's next: The path forward for Syria remains fraught with uncertainty as HTS seeks to solidify its power without alienating allies or citizens.

Observers watch closely for signs of stability or further conflict in the region.

To read the full article, click here.

The Days of Assad’s Fall: Interview

An interview with a former member of Syria’s Local Defence Forces offers a rare glimpse into the final days of Assad's regime and the complex regional dynamics.

Why it matters: Insights from those on the ground reveal the intricacies of alliances and betrayals that shaped Syria's conflict.

Understanding these narratives can inform future geopolitical strategies.

Betrayal and collapse: The interviewee describes how internal betrayals and strategic withdrawals led to the regime's downfall.

Allegations of officer treachery and lack of resistance highlight the chaos during Assad's final days.

Iranian and Russian influences: The interviewee criticizes Russia's role, accusing it of self-interest and betrayal, while praising Iran's unwavering support.

These dynamics underscore the complexity of foreign influence in Syria.

Future outlook: The interviewee's defense of Assad and concerns about foreign influences reflect the ongoing tensions in post-Assad Syria.

As the region adjusts, the balance of power and allegiances remain in flux.

To read the full article, click here.

What Russia’s Exit from Its Syrian Base Should Teach the United States

Russia's withdrawal from its Syrian bases, including Tartus, offers critical insights for U.S. military strategy and global presence.

Why it matters: Understanding the dynamics of base transitions can help the U.S. strengthen its strategic positioning and counter adversarial influences.

The U.S. can capitalize on vacated bases to enhance its influence without the costs of new constructions.

Strategic acquisition: The closure of Russian bases like Tartus presents opportunities for the U.S. to expand its strategic footprint by taking over these key locations.

Acquiring such bases "for free" can enhance U.S. deterrence capabilities and fill strategic gaps.

Geopolitical shifts: The fluid nature of military bases underscores the need for the U.S. to adapt its global presence strategy.

Proactively preventing adversaries like China from filling these voids is crucial for maintaining regional stability.

What's next: The Pentagon must approach global basing with a strategic lens, ensuring that the U.S. remains agile and responsive to geopolitical changes.

Rethinking base locations and adversarial withdrawal strategies can ensure continued U.S. dominance on the global stage.

To read the full article, click here.

WATCH: Ilan Berman on Shaping Iran’s Future

Ilan Berman, VP of the American Foreign Policy Council, highlights key trends shaping Iran's future as it nears its 46th anniversary.

Why it matters: Iran's internal dynamics and international relations are pivotal for regional and global stability.

Understanding these shifts can inform U.S. foreign policy and strategic decisions.

Key trends: Iran faces economic struggles, secularization, and widespread regime rejection.

These challenges may push Iran towards technocratization, dependency on external allies, or a military-led future.

U.S. policy implications: America must navigate Iran's opposition landscape and consider the effects of potential regime changes.

A cohesive approach is needed to support democratic change and counter Iran's nuclear ambitions.

What's next: As Iran recalibrates its influence, the U.S. should engage with Iranian opposition groups and reassess its regional strategies.

Empowering the Iranian people and addressing nuclear threats are crucial steps forward.

To watch the full podcast, click here.

The Facts Behind Iran’s Gas and Electricity Shortages

Iran faces severe gas and electricity shortages despite its vast natural resources, highlighting systemic mismanagement and corruption.

Why it matters: The shortages cripple industries, increase operational costs, and exacerbate public frustration, negatively affecting Iran's stability and regional security.

Daily economic losses amount to millions, further straining an already fragile economy.

Systemic issues: Mismanagement and sanctions have stalled gas production, while unauthorized cryptocurrency mining strains the electricity grid.

Outdated infrastructure and inefficient distribution contribute to widespread blackouts.

Regime's priorities: The Iranian government prioritizes survival over infrastructure, channeling resources to maintain power and fund proxies like Hezbollah.

Public frustration grows amid proposals to raise fuel prices, risking a resurgence of protests.

What's next: As maximum pressure sanctions loom, Iran's energy crisis will deepen, potentially weakening the regime's grip on power.

A new uprising appears increasingly imminent as millions grapple with deteriorating conditions.

To read the full article, click here.

Did the Crusaders Spoil ‘Five Centuries of Peaceful Coexistence’ with Islam?

The narrative of "five centuries of peaceful coexistence" between Muslims and Christians before the Crusades is undermined by historical evidence of conflict and conquest.

Why it matters: Understanding the true history of significant events like the Crusades shapes our perspective on modern interfaith relations and geopolitical policies today.

Misrepresentations can influence cultural and political narratives, which can negatively influence today's policy decisions.

Historical realities: From 632 to 732, Muslims conquered vast Christian territories, contradicting claims of peace.

Atrocities committed during these conquests were often justified as jihad, challenging the narrative of coexistence.

The Crusades' origins: The First Crusade in 1095 was a response to centuries of conflict, not an abrupt break from peace.

Historical accounts detail violence against Christians, prompting the call to arms from Pope Urban II.

What's next: Recognizing and addressing historical inaccuracies is crucial for fostering genuine understanding and cooperation between faiths.

Academics and experts must ensure accurate portrayals of history to prevent "fake history" from influencing contemporary discourse.

To read the full article, click here.

Further Reading:

“Post-Assad Syria Faces Challenges in Building Unified Military”
By: Sirwan Kajjpo
Efforts to unify rebel factions in post-Assad Syria face distrust and competing agendas.

“Turkey Again Tops List of EU’s Food Safety Violations”
By: Abdullah Bozkurt
Last year, Turkish products accounted for the majority of alerts issued by the European Union’s Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed.

“A Conspiracy of Silence at Oberlin College?”
By: Benjamin Weinthal
The student newspaper has not published a story about the firing of an Islamic studies professor accused of sexual misconduct.

From Washington, D.C., to Damascus, Tehran, and beyond, MEF’s ongoing assessments seek to keep you abreast not just of changes felt from the Middle East to Foggy Bottom, but to suggest how best take advantage of opportunities while avoiding the inevitable pitfalls. Our next Dispatch will remain true to this tradition.

Sincerely,
Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, MEF
Director, Campus Watch

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