MEF Dispatch: The New Middle Eastern Chessboard – Allie s, Enemies, and Anomalies

MEF Dispatch: The New Middle Eastern Chessboard – Allies, Enemies, and Anomalies

By Winfield Myers ● Jan 27, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 8 mins...2184 words

We begin on a melancholy note with Jonathan Spyer’s second installment on his recent trip to Damascus, a city off-limits for years. Searching for the ancient Syrian capital’s Jewish community, 50,000 strong in 1900, he found, along with secret police from the new regime, “seven old Jews, a locked synagogue, and a ruin.” From there we report how the once-respectable British journal of medicine the Lancet lent what remains of its now-tattered reputation to Israel-bashing in grossly exaggerating even Hamas’s already-mendacious Gazan death count. Reporting additional anti-Israel news, we warn that Pakistan-backed South Asian terror networks could be next to target the Jewish state. From Kuwait, the arrest of a pro-Israel journalist shows that the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence remains pervasive there even as the broader Gulf Cooperation Council adopts a far more pragmatic approach to relations with Israel.

Iraq has through default acquired a more central role in Iran’s strategic calculations thanks to Tehran’s loss of proxies across the region—all the more reason for the U.S. to remain engaged and active in Iraq lest we hand Khamenei a victory by quitting the fight. Turkey remains a key concern as well. Years ago, its secret intelligence struck a deal with Sunni Islamists in Syria that saw terrorists refrain from attacks on Turkish soil in exchange for logistical support. Today, Turkey leverages its influence in Syria as part of Turkish President Erdoğan’s pursuit of a neo-Ottoman sphere of influence. Finally, we offer another critique of recent revisionist historians who claim falsely that negative images of Muhammad began in the West to justify the Crusades, when in fact criticisms of Islam’s prophet in Syriac sources date to two short years after his death.

ICYMI: “The Kurd’s Struggle in Iran” with Shukriya Bradost

The Kurds in Iran lag behind their co-ethnics in Iraq, Syria, and Türkiye in terms of asserting their rights. The movement for Kurdish autonomy has gained visibility but is limited by fragmentation. The Islamic Republic views Kurdish activism as a national security threat. How should the international community engage with the Kurds of Iran? Would external support bolster their cause or further escalate repression? How does Kurdish activism affect the regime’s stability?

Shukriya Bradost, an Iranian-Kurdish security analyst, is a doctoral candidate at Virginia Tech University. In addition she is non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and a contributor to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She has written for Al Jazeera, the Jerusalem Post, and the Observer. She holds a B.A. in law from the University of Salahaddin in Erbil, Iraq, and an M.A. in international security from the University of Leicester.

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

To subscribe to the Middle East Forum Podcast, click here.

The Last Jews of Damascus: A Journey Through Memory and Ruins

Damascus, once home to a vibrant Jewish community, now stands with only a handful of elderly Jewish residents, amidst a backdrop of ruins and memories.

A Community in Decline: The Jewish Quarter of Damascus, once bustling, now hosts merely seven or eight Jewish individuals, the last of Syria's ancient community.

Once divided into communities in Damascus, Aleppo, and Qamishli, the majority have departed, leaving behind a few elderly guardians.

Guardians of Abandoned Heritage: Fuad Hilwani, one of the last Jewish residents, watches over properties threatened by opportunistic claims.

His presence symbolizes a connection to a lost past.

Historic Sites Amidst Ruins: The Eliyahu Hanavi Synagogue, destroyed in 2014, stands as a testament to the Jewish history in Syria.

The site, now a pile of rubble, is a poignant reminder of the community that once thrived here.

What's Next: The legacy of Damascus's Jewish community hangs in the balance, reliant on a few remaining individuals and the preservation of their stories.

As the city transforms, the memory of its Jewish inhabitants continues to fade.

To read the full article, click here.

The ‘Lancet’ Quadruples Hamas’s Gazan Death Count

The Lancet, a renowned medical journal, grossly inflated Gaza's death toll figures, further ruining its tattered reputation.

Inflated Numbers: The Lancet claims Gaza's death toll is nearly 180,000, contradicting reports from Hamas's own sources.

The journal's figures starkly contrast with the 45,885 deaths reported by Gaza's Health Ministry.

Questionable Methodology: Critics, including the Henry Jackson Society, accuse the Lancet of using flawed data to portray Israel as deliberately targeting civilians.

The Society highlights the inclusion of natural deaths and misclassified fighters as civilians in the reported tolls.

Awaiting Accountability: While the Lancet focuses on Gaza, there is a noticeable absence of studies on the condition of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

The journal's selective reporting further exposes its anti-Israel agenda.

What's Next: As debates continue, there is a call for the Lancet to uphold rigorous standards and provide balanced perspectives in its publications.

Transparent methodologies and accountability are essential for maintaining the journal's credibility.

To read the full article, click here.

Get Ready for Pakistan-Backed Groups to Target Israel

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has exposed vulnerabilities, with Pakistan-backed terror networks emerging as a new threat to Israel and India.

New Alliances Forming: Anti-Israel cooperation is growing across Sunni and Shi’ite divides, with connections between groups in West and South Asia.

Evidence suggests increasing involvement of Pakistani Sunni extremists in the region's dynamics.

Historic Blind Spots: Israel's traditional reliance on diplomatic channels with Pakistan may no longer be sufficient.

The convergence of terror networks poses a significant security risk for both Israel and India.

Strategic Cooperation Needed: India and Israel must intensify military collaboration and intelligence sharing to counter these threats.

U.S. support and proactive measures are crucial to mitigate the potential impacts.

What's Next: As the geopolitical landscape shifts, vigilance and strategic alliances will be key to maintaining stability in the region.

Nations must remain alert to evolving terror strategies and prevent any escalation.

To read the full article, click here.

Arrest of Pro-Israel Kuwaiti Journalist Highlights Muslim Brotherhood’s Influence

The arrest of Fajr Al-Saeed, a pro-Israel Kuwaiti journalist, underlines the tension between ideological conservatism and pragmatic diplomacy in the Arab world.

A Pivotal Arrest: Al-Saeed's detention for advocating normalization with Israel highlights geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.

Her arrest reflects Kuwait's internal struggles and the broader regional dynamics at play.

Muslim Brotherhood's Influence: The Islamic Constitutional Movement, representing the Brotherhood in Kuwait, remains a significant force against Israel ties.

The Brotherhood's historical roots in Kuwait continue to shape its political discourse and policies.

Balancing Act: Kuwait faces a choice between embracing economic and technological cooperation with Israel or adhering to ideological stances.

Normalization could enhance Kuwait's security and global standing, but opposition remains strong.

What's Next: As GCC countries move towards pragmatic relations with Israel, Kuwait must navigate its internal divisions to align with regional trends.

The debate over normalization is a microcosm of broader ideological struggles in the Arab world.

To read the full article, click here.

MEF Action Alert: Tell Your Senators to Pass Legislation to Sanction ICC Officials

This week, the U.S. Senate is expected to advance the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act (ICCA), a bill to sanction International Criminal Court (ICC) officials for taking actions that threaten our national security interests and jeopardize the safety of millions of Americans.

Join the MEF Action campaign to call on your senators to sponsor and pass this crucial legislation.

The Issue: Unjustified Arrest Warrants: The ICC has wrongfully issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This move was orchestrated to damage Israel’s international standing and obstruct its mission to defeat Hamas.

Ongoing Investigation in Afghanistan: The ICC's investigation into alleged war crimes in Afghanistan directly endangers approximately 5.5 million American service members and officials who could be subject to prosecution without due process under U.S. law. This investigation is a direct challenge to our national and military sovereignty.

The Legislation: The ICCA, which passed in the House of Representatives on January 9, aims to sanction the ICC for these overreaches. This bill would:

Impose visa restrictions and property-blocking sanctions on ICC officials involved in investigations or prosecutions against U.S. personnel or those of our allies not party to the Rome Statute.

Protect the sovereignty of nations like the U.S. and Israel, which are not signatories to the Rome Statute, the treaty that created the ICC.

The ICC's actions not only challenge the sovereignty of nations but also risk setting a precedent that could affect U.S. personnel worldwide. Your action today could prevent a future where our national interests and the security of our service members are at risk.

To join the campaign, click here.

Will Iran’s Regime Rally in Iraq?

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maneuvers to strengthen its grip on Iraq, leveraging proxy militias to assert regional dominance.

Iran's Tactical Shift: As Tehran recalibrates post-October 7, Iraq becomes pivotal in its strategic calculus.

The IRGC backs militias like the Badr Corps and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq to infiltrate Iraqi institutions and weaken opposition.

Political Intrigue: Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani's compromised position benefits Iran, keeping him reliant on Tehran's support.

Domestic scandals and health issues among pro-Iran leaders complicate Iraq's political landscape.

Western Strategy: To curb Iran's influence, Western powers must demand stricter checks on Iranian cargo and personnel in Iraq.

Supporting Iraq to enforce these measures can prevent Iran from using Iraq as a land bridge to Syria.

What's Next: Targeted airstrikes and diplomatic pressure can weaken Iran-backed militias, offering Iraq a chance to regain control.

The West must remain engaged to prevent Iran from destabilizing the region and strengthening its "Axis of Resistance."

To read the full article, click here.

A Secret Turkish Intelligence Deal with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham Included No Attacks in Turkey

A secret between Turkey's intelligence agency and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) reveals Ankara's double game on terrorism, providing support to the group while publicly opposing it.

Secret Pact Unveiled: Turkish intelligence (MIT) struck a deal with HTS to avoid attacks on Turkish soil in exchange for support.

The agreement allowed HTS to operate freely, recruiting fighters and raising funds in Turkey.

Public Deception: Erdoğan's government portrayed compliance with U.N. resolutions, staging false crackdowns on HTS.

Despite formal designations, secret cooperation with HTS continued, revealing a facade of anti-terror efforts.

Implications for Regional Stability: The collaboration with HTS raises concerns about Turkey's role in regional conflicts.

Turkey's actions undermine global anti-terrorism efforts, complicating relations with international allies.

What's Next: As HTS gains power in Syria, Turkey's covert operations spotlight the need for transparency and accountability in regional politics.

The West must scrutinize Turkey's dual strategies to ensure a coordinated approach to terrorism.

To read the full article, click here.

How Turkey Leverages Itself Between East, Western Worlds to Maximize Geopolitical Clout

Turkey leverages its strategic position between East and West to maximize geopolitical influence, signaling a continuing shift away from traditional Western alliances.

Strategic Realignment: Turkey's interventions in Syria and Iraq highlight a deeper shift toward Russia and BRICS, challenging NATO cohesion.

Erdoğan's government embraces a neo-Ottoman vision, seeking leadership in the Sunni Muslim world.

Ideological Outreach: Ankara's support for political Islamist movements underscores its long-term investment in shaping political Islam across the Middle East and Europe.

Hosting conferences with Hamas leaders amplifies Turkey's ideological commitments.

Dual Approach: Turkey leverages NATO membership to cover for its pro-Islamist policies.

This allows Turkey to undermine the Western alliance from within, complicating its relationship with Western allies.What

What's Next: As Ankara pursues its ambitions, the West must engage with Turkey thoughtfully, balancing strategic cooperation with addressing the challenges posed by its foreign policy.

Turkey's actions could exacerbate regional tensions, demanding a measured response from the international community.

To read the full article, click here.

When — and Why — Christians First ‘Demonized’ Muhammad

Karen Armstrong's revisionist history claims Christians “demonized” Muhammad post-Crusades, but historical records suggest otherwise.

Early Perceptions: Christians viewed Muhammad as a "sinister figure" long before the Crusades.

Historical texts from the 7th century depict Muhammad as warlike, contradicting Armstrong's claims.

Historical Evidence: Early accounts describe violent conquests and massacres by Muhammad's followers.

Syriac and Coptic writings from the 630s portray him and his followers as oppressors and warmongers.

Debunking Myths: Armstrong's narrative mirrors other revisionist histories that absolve Islamic conquests of violence.

Similar to John Esposito, Armstrong shifts blame to Christian Crusaders, ignoring historical Muslim aggression.

Conclusion: A balanced historical perspective requires acknowledging the complexity of early Christian-Muslim relations.

Scholars must critically assess narratives to avoid whitewashing or scapegoating in historical discourse.

Understanding the true origins of these perceptions is crucial for informed interfaith dialogue today.

To read the full article, click here.

The loss of Syria’s once-thriving Jewish community, hostility to Israel from Western scientists and historians as well as from jihadis from the Middle East and beyond, and Turkey’s rising alliance with newly-empowered Islamists fill this issue of the Dispatch. We offer analyses of these and other developments in the belief that fulfilling MEF’s mission to promote American interests in the Middle East and protect Western values from Middle Eastern threats rests upon keeping you, our readers and supporters, informed and enlightened about these complex issues. Our next issue will arrive soon.

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