| | | | MEF Dispatch: Syria’s Ruins, Iran’s Patience, and Hamas’s Resilience By Winfield Myers ● Feb 02, 2025 Smart Brevity® count: 5 mins...1361 words Israel’s failure to destroy Hamas, which remains powerful, shows that “Israel’s over-rated security establishment has managed to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory,” writes Daniel Pipes. In Syria, Assad’s fall and the rise of Islamist rule is visible in the remains of the former regime and the symbols of the new one as captured by Jonathan Spyer in a special photo essay. In the West, a well-connected German think tank hosted a Princeton scholar and former Iranian diplomat during whose career regime opponents were assassinated in Europe. We analyze Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s survival strategy in the face of a new Trump administration: endure Trump while hoping for a future friendlier administration. Another Iran/Trump article bolster’s this claim, as we argue that Khamenei’s eagerness to cut a deal with Trump signals a tactical delay to outlast Trump for that hoped-for softer administration. Domestically, we decode the president’s new “travel ban” to reduce the issuance of visas to people from countries of concern over terrorism and conclude that it is much-needed and overdue. Finally, we offer another critique of revisionist history that blames the West for systemic problems found in many Muslim-majority nations. | ICYMI: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry President Trump's continued pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu to continue implementation of the hostage deal could cost Netanyahu his government. Yet Trump is also talking about depopulating Gaza and releasing previously suspended munitions to Israel. Where may all this be heading? What are the implications for Israel’s coalition and for Netanyahu’s political future?
To watch the full podcast, click here. | Israel’s Military Failure, Gaza’s Dismal Future By: Daniel Pipes Despite its military might, Israel has failed to dismantle Hamas 16 months after the 2023 massacre. Why it matters: The ongoing presence of Hamas complicates Gaza's governance and challenges Israel's strategic focus. Fury and impasse: Initial aggressive vows by Israeli leaders were stalled by hostage crises and regional pressures. The bottom line: Israel's military faces an evolving challenge in Gaza, necessitating a strategic reassessment. To read the full article, click here. | Syria in Transition: A Photo-Essay By: Jonathan Spyer Jonathan Spyer's recent visit to Syria captures a nation in flux following the Assad regime's collapse and the rise of an Islamist government. Why it matters: Syria's power shift has not led to stability, as various factions vie for control amidst ongoing uncertainty. The emergence of Ahmed Shara’a's regime does not guarantee peace, with competing interests still at play. Symbols of change: Former regime checkpoints now display rebel flags, highlighting the transition of power. The absence of any visible police presence in Damascus underscores the new regime's limited control. The bottom line: Syria's future remains ambiguous, with new Islamist rulers facing challenges to consolidate power in a fractured landscape. To read the full article, click here. | Kurds Must Avoid Repeating Iraq Pitfalls in Syria By: Loqman Radpey Kurdish negotiators in Syria must prioritize enforceable agreements to safeguard their interests amidst regional instability. Why it matters: The Kurds' control over a third of Syria and its oil resources is a significant bargaining chip. Past experiences in Iraq highlight the dangers of relying on unenforced promises. Strategic position: The Kurds should negotiate from strength, given their disciplined forces and the weakened Turkish-backed leadership in Damascus. Ensuring a return to Kurdish homes must be a pre-condition for negotiations. The bottom line: Kurdish leaders have an opportunity to secure a recognized entity in Syria, learning from the pitfalls they faced in Iraq. To read the full article, click here. | German Official Condemns Think Tank for Hosting Defender of Iranian Terror By: Benjamin Weinthal A German think tank linked to the Foreign Ministry faced backlash for hosting Seyed Hossein Mousavian, who served as an Iranian diplomat when regime opponents were assassinated in Europe. Why it matters: Hosting Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat, raises concerns over antisemitism and support for the Iranian regime. The Körber Foundation's actions contradict its stated principles of democracy and human rights. The controversy widens: It is an outrage that Princeton University employs the antisemitic, anti-American Mousavian as a scholar. Giving Mousavian a platform endangers U.S. national security and supports Iran's geopolitical agenda. The bottom line: Mousavian and his ilk should not be welcomed by Western institutions--much less employed by them--as such actions undermine their mission while lending a veneer of legitimacy to the Islamic Republic's worst apologists. To read the full article, click here. | Iran’s Strategy for Trump 2.0: Stay Afloat By: Saied Golkar Ayatollah Khamenei grapples with a weakened Iran amid a potentially hostile U.S. administration under Trump. Why it matters: Iran enters this phase economically and militarily diminished, with significant regional setbacks. The regime's anti-Americanism and its paranoid personality remain cornerstones of its ideology. Strategic pivots: Iran's leadership seeks to exploit divisions between Trump and his allies, leveraging regional relationships to buffer U.S. pressure. Efforts include renewing alliances and preparing for internal dissent. The bottom line: Khamenei's regime must navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, balancing survival tactics with the hope of divine intervention against a challenging Trump presidency.
To read the full article, click here. | Is Iran Sincere About Renewed Nuclear Negotiations with Trump? By: Michael Rubin As the 2015 nuclear deal nears expiration, Iran signals readiness for negotiations, but skepticism remains. Why it matters: The return of Trump, known for "maximum pressure" tactics, complicates Iran's strategic calculations. Iranian leaders fear renewed sanctions and potential Israeli military action. Strategic maneuvering: Iran's willingness to negotiate could be a temporary strategy to outlast Trump's presidency. Tehran aims to delay and divide international responses, leveraging geopolitical shifts. The bottom line: Trump's administration faces a critical decision: pursue a deal or set the stage for the permanent elimination of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and perhaps the regime itself. To read the full article, click here. | Decoding Trump’s Border Counterterrorism Order, Part 3 By: Todd Bensman President Trump's new executive order aims to expand the controversial travel ban, sparking debate over national security and immigration policies. Why it matters: The order seeks to enhance vetting processes for foreign nationals from countries with security risks. It includes a provision to deport individuals already in the U.S. if they pose threats. Strategic implications: The expanded travel ban could draw the same criticisms as the misnamed “Muslim ban” from President Trump’s previous term. The bottom line: As the administration moves to implement the order, it should stay the course and not be derailed by critics, keeping national security as a top priority for the new administration. To read the full article, click here. | Is Western Victimization the Root Cause of Islam’s Many Problems? By: Raymond Ibrahim The narrative that Western imperialism is the root cause of Islam's issues is challenged by historical realities and intrinsic problems within the Muslim world. Why it matters: Blaming the West for systemic problems in Muslim-majority lands is an ahistorical and dishonest means of relieving Islam of responsibility for the nature of rule and society it has often inspired. The first thousand years of relations between Islam and the West saw the conquest of formerly Christian lands by Muslim forces. Historical context: While European imperialism had its sins, it also introduced modernity and concepts of democracy to Muslim regions. Revisionist historians hold that Islam can do no wrong, and the West can do no right. The bottom line: Addressing the root causes of challenges within the Muslim world requires acknowledging both historical and internal factors that extend beyond Western victimization narratives. To read the full article, click here. | Further Reading: “Decoding Trump’s Border Counterterrorism Order, Part 2”
By: Todd Bensman
The executive order’s central thrust is to restore, repair, and expand national security vetting across every agency that might touch immigration. “Imprisonment by Syria’s State Security: Interview”
By: Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi
The Assad regime had no intention of reforming the police state, and had it won the war, it would likely have become even more repressive. “When Tarab Ruled: Oum Kalthoum and the Echoes of Arabism and Revolution”
By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour
The legacy of Oum Kalthoum remains one of the most spellbinding musical phenomena of the twentieth century. | | Thank you for counting on the Dispatch to bring you concise analyses of some of the day’s most pressing issues. Our next issue will include more on the new administration, the volatile Middle East, and other topics that matter most to you. Sincerely,
Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, MEF
Director, Campus Watch | | Was this edition useful?
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