⚡️ MEF Dispatch: Israel Invades Lebanon

Israel Pushes North: Lebanon Invasion Begins

By Gregg Roman ● Sep 30, 2024

Smart Brevity® count: 4.5 mins...1176 words

Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon marks a pivotal moment in the Middle East’s security landscape. In this newsletter, we explore the military, financial, and geopolitical ramifications of this move, along with other critical developments in the region. From the aftermath of Nasrallah’s assassination to Iran’s tightening grip on Iraq, these events are shaping the future of Israel and its neighbors.

Israel Invades Southern Lebanon

Israel has launched a significant ground invasion into southern Lebanon, marking a dramatic escalation in its conflict with Hezbollah.

Why it matters: This move aims to secure Israel’s northern border and dismantle Hezbollah’s military capabilities.

Hezbollah has been significantly weakened by recent Israeli operations, including the elimination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Driving the news:

The IDF has initiated “limited, localized, and targeted” raids, disrupting Hezbollah’s command and control structures.

The invasion involves special forces and artillery support, focusing on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure along the border.

Details:

Operations: Israeli forces have utilized tunnels and surface routes to launch incursions, with artillery support from M109A5 “Dohar” 155mm Self-Propelled Howitzers.

Leadership: The IDF has eliminated key Hezbollah leaders, including Eid Hassan Nashar, the commander of Hezbollah’s medium-range rocket force.

Airstrikes: Israeli airstrikes targeted the Mezzeh district of southwestern Damascus, demonstrating Israel’s commitment to disrupting Hezbollah’s support networks.

Withdrawal: The Lebanese Army has redeployed near the Litani River, and UNIFIL forces have begun evacuating their positions near the border.

What’s next:

International Response: The Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, and several embassies are evacuating non-essential staff.

Civilian Impact: The IDF has declared a closed military area near the communities of Metula, Meshgav Am, and Kfar Giladi. Residents in northern Israel must stay near protected areas until further notice.

The bottom line:

Comprehensive Approach: Israel’s comprehensive approach includes military, technological, economic, and diplomatic fronts.

Global Impact: The operation’s success will likely influence global counter-terrorism strategies, potentially redefining how nations address threats from non-state actors.

Impact of Nasrallah’s Assassination

Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination marks a significant moral and strategic blow to Hezbollah and Iran’s regional influence.

Why it matters: Nasrallah was a key figure in Iran’s bid for hegemony in the Arab world, leading Hezbollah with considerable power in Lebanon and beyond.

His leadership advanced Iran’s cause in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and other regions.

The big picture: The killing of Nasrallah, following a series of targeted strikes on Hezbollah’s leadership, weakens the group’s operational capabilities but does not eliminate its threat.

Hezbollah continues to launch attacks on Israel, maintaining its influence despite recent losses.

What’s next: The assassination could provoke further retaliation from Hezbollah or Iran, potentially escalating into broader regional conflict.

The identities of Iranian officers killed alongside Nasrallah may reveal further implications for Iran’s response.

Starving Hezbollah of Funds

Israel’s strategy to defeat Hezbollah must extend beyond the battlefield to cut off its financial resources.

Why it matters: Hezbollah’s financial networks fund their operations and influence, making economic warfare essential to undermine their capabilities.

Targeting these funds weakens Hezbollah’s ability to support its members and carry out attacks.

By the numbers: Hezbollah’s Captagon drug trade and cryptocurrency transactions are major revenue sources.

Coordinated efforts with law enforcement in the Middle East can disrupt these financial streams.

Driving the news: Recent targeted strikes have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s leadership, but financial warfare is crucial to sustain these gains.

Sanctions must extend to family members and associates, and heightened scrutiny is needed in banking sectors of countries like Lebanon, West Africa, and South America.

What’s next: International cooperation and advanced technologies can intercept bulk cash smuggling and dismantle Hezbollah’s financial networks.

Enhanced cooperation with global customs and border agencies can help intercept Hezbollah’s bulk cash smuggling operations.

Details: Infiltrating informal money transfer systems like hawala networks is essential.

Financial intelligence units must collaborate with local authorities to dismantle Hezbollah-linked operations in the Gulf states and Southeast Asia.

The bottom line: The battlefield has evolved, and new weapons are financial regulations, international cooperation, and cutting-edge technology.

Starving Hezbollah of funds can undermine the group’s military capabilities and global influence without firing a single shot.

Buffer Zone for Israel-Lebanon Peace

A demilitarized zone (DMZ) between Israel and Lebanon could deter violence by non-state actors and pave the way for reconciliation.

Why it matters: Establishing a DMZ would reduce the potential for armed conflict, creating a safer environment for dialogue and eventual peace.

It addresses the historical inability of the Lebanese government and international community to enforce compliance among non-state actors.

The big picture: The DMZ would extend from the Damour River to the Israeli border, prohibiting all military presence and monitored by police patrols.

This setup would help deny space to infiltrators, using drones, cameras, and other advanced technologies.

What’s next: Both the Lebanese and Israeli governments must agree to the DMZ, with global powers endorsing the arrangement.

The Lebanese people, exhausted by wars imposed by non-state actors, would likely support such a measure for lasting peace.

Iran Consolidates Power in Iraq

Iran is increasingly using Iraq as a hub for regional power projection through Shi’ite militias.

Why it matters: The consolidation of Iranian influence in Iraq poses significant implications for regional stability and the strategic balance in the Middle East.

The use of Iraq as a transit point for Iranian power affects neighboring regions, including Syria and Israel.

Driving the news: Recent drone attacks by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq on Israeli targets highlight the active role of Iranian-backed militias.

The attacks, though largely ineffective, demonstrate Iran’s growing influence and the militias’ commitment to supporting Palestinian and Lebanese groups.

The bottom line: Iran’s strategic positioning in Iraq strengthens its regional power axis, impacting geopolitical dynamics and security in the Middle East.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq by 2026 further facilitates Iran’s influence, with its militias gaining official status and economic control in the country.

Can Iraq Avoid Lebanon’s Fate?

Iraq faces a choice: follow Lebanon’s disastrous path or prioritize its own sovereignty.

Why it matters: The death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has created a power vacuum in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.”

Iraqi militia leaders like Qais al-Khazali or Muqtada al-Sadr may seek to fill this void, potentially dragging Iraq into conflict.

Driving the news:

Nasrallah was a key figure in the resistance front, and new leader Hashem Safieddine lacks his influence.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani must decide whether to defend Iran’s proxies or prioritize Iraq’s sovereignty.

The bottom line: Iraq’s leadership must act decisively to avoid Lebanon’s fate and ensure its sovereignty and development take precedence.

The United States' security interests in the Middle East hinge on stability and the defeat of terrorist organizations like Hezbollah. Israel’s decisive action in southern Lebanon is not just about securing its own borders—it directly impacts America’s broader strategic goals. A weakened Hezbollah, and by extension a diminished Iranian influence, would contribute to a more stable region. The best chance for peace, both for the Middle East and U.S. interests, is for Israel to win this war and neutralize the threats at its northern border.

Until next time.

Gregg Roman
Director
Middle East Forum

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