Recent statements about U.S. talks with Iran are cause for confusion—and concern. What, if any, are

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Iran Is Playing for Time; An Eastern Med. Alliance; Islamism Overseas; A New Bill on Special Interest Aliens

By Winfield Myers ● Apr 16, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 6.5 mins...1749 words

Recent statements about U.S. talks with Iran are cause for confusion—and concern. What, if any, are the concessions? And why? In their respective articles, Jonathan Spyer and Lazar Berman both warn that Iran benefits from dragging the talks out because—as we all know—the nuclear clock is ticking.

Gregg Roman advocates formalizing the 3 + 1 strategic alliance: Greece, Cyprus, and Israel plus the U.S., as a “beacon of stability in the tumultuous Eastern Mediterranean.” This counterweight to Turkey, Russia, and Iran is a strategic imperative for the U.S.

Dominic Green describes the parallel society that authorities in the U.K. have allowed to arise in areas heavily populated by Muslims. The result is cultural fragmentation and widespread security concerns. Still, says Green, it’s not time to write Britain off thanks to a “massive, massive public reaction against all of this.” In France, meanwhile, an AI-generated video about Paris in 50 years—based on up-to-date demographic projections—paints a frightening image of a sharia-compliant city.

We close with an analysis of a new House bill that, argues Todd Bensman, deserves bipartisan support for its promise of ending government secrecy on aliens from countries where Islamist terrorist organizations operate: special interest aliens (SIAs). Bensman dissects the bill and offers an amendment or two to strengthen it.

Iran Is Playing for Time in the U.S. Nuclear Talks

Iran prides itself on its strategic patience, intends to buy time, while avoiding any major and irreversible concessions. Whether President Donald Trump’s administration will prove willing to accommod...
By: Jonathan Spyer

The U.S. and Iran have kicked off nuclear talks in Oman, with Iran playing its usual game of strategic patience.

Why it matters: Contrary to some of the more overheated commentary of recent months, the Iranian regional project has not been destroyed, or even conclusively defeated. Rather, it has been weakened, significantly.

  • In light of this, Iran's strategy is clear: keep discussions tightly focused on nuclear issues, dodging any mention of its missile program or regional meddling.

What's next: Iran's game plan is simple—either secure a deal akin to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or drag out talks to dodge sanctions and military threats.

  • Iran’s strategy of proxy warfare, which had brought it unprecedented power and influence across the region, has suffered a number of very telling blows since October 2023.

Our thoughts: The stakes couldn't be higher for U.S. foreign policy.

  • Iran is banking on the U.S.'s eagerness for a deal, exploiting it to rebuild its strength while its adversaries watch warily.

  • Whether or not the regime manages to build them up again to their former capacity will be decided in Washington, and in Oman, in the coming months.

To read the full article, click here.

Event: “Syria in Transition: What Does the Future Look Like for Christians in an Islamist Syria?”

Syrian church

After nearly fourteen years of devastating civil war, the world witnessed Syria fall to Islamist militias in December 2024. While the collapse of the Assad regime was indeed a positive development for Syria and the world, the newly formed Syrian transitional government—dominated by Islamist extremists and foreign warlords who espouse al-Qaeda philosophy—presents an existential threat to Syria’s vulnerable, two-thousand-year-old Christian communities and threatens American interests in regional stability. Join IDC in examining what the future looks like for Christians in an Islamist Syria, and what the world community must do to avert civilizational catastrophe.

Featuring:

  • Gregg Roman (Middle East Forum)

  • Jonathan Schanzer (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)

  • Bassam Ishak (Syrian Democratic Council)

When: April 23, 2025 at 6:00PM

Where:
Institute on Religion & Democracy
1023 15th Street NW Suite 200
Washington, D.C.

To register, click here.

Iran Wants to Drag Out Talks, Trump Wants a Deal Now. Neither Is Good for Israel

Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and United States National Security Adviser Michael Waltz speak to the press outside the White House; Feb. 4, 2025. Shutterstock
By: Lazar Berman

The U.S. and Iran's nuclear talks in Oman have sparked unexpected optimism, but at what cost?

Why it matters: This diplomatic dance could severely undermine Israel's security and alter Middle Eastern power dynamics.

  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu could be looking at talks dragging out while Iran rebuilds its air defenses and its nuclear program. Israel’s military threat against Iran would be diminished, and he wouldn’t be able to criticize President Trump in front of Congress as he famously did Obama.

A new tune: Iran's shift from defiance to diplomacy is strategic, crafted to test U.S. resolve and buy time.

  • President Masoud Pezeshkian's earlier refusal to negotiate now contrasts sharply with the current "productive and positive" atmosphere painted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

What's next: As talks continue, the threat of Iran advancing its nuclear capabilities looms large, challenging the U.S.'s red lines.

  • A limited, interim deal may emerge, freezing some nuclear activities while granting Iran the time it desires to bolster its geopolitical leverage.

The bottom line: If talks don’t fall apart on their own, Israel will look to top U.S. officials like National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to convince Trump to use the ample leverage he has created to push Iran into a far stricter deal than it wants.

To read the full article, click here.

Securing the Future: Why the 3+1 Strategic Alliance Must Be Permanent

President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. Shutterstock
By: Gregg Roman

The "3+1" format—Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and the U.S.—is a strategic bulwark in the volatile Eastern Mediterranean.

Why it matters: Formalizing this alliance is essential to confronting ongoing aggression of Turkey, Russia, and Iran.

  • Greece and Israel provide critical military capabilities, while Cyprus enhances regional security through strategic programs, including port security, counter-terrorism, and detection of chemical, biological, and radiological threats.

The threat landscape: Turkey's belligerence and Russia’s regional ambitions demand a unified counter-response.

  • The alliance must act decisively to thwart these threats and maintain regional stability.

Economic and military benefits: Projects like the EastMed pipeline are vital but vulnerable without robust security.

  • Coordinated military efforts ensure these initiatives are shielded from military threats from Turkey, Russia, Iran, and others.

What's next: The "American-Hellenic-Israeli Eastern Mediterranean Counterterrorism and Maritime Security Partnership Act of 2025" is a critical step forward.

  • This alliance will secure crucial resources and align with U.S. strategic imperatives, protecting interests against destabilizing forces.

To read the full article, click here.

New Speakers Announced! – Register Now for Our 2025 Policy Conference

Conference

Register now for our 2025 policy conference, "Statecraft Reimagined" in Washington, D.C. – space is limited!

This conference will gather leading experts and policymakers to discuss the most urgent and complex issues shaping the future of the Middle East. This extraordinary event is poised to be the premier Middle East policy gathering in D.C. this year, offering unparalleled insights, networking, and strategic guidance.

To register, click here.

Dominic Green on Islamism in Britain

Dominic Green, historian and columnist, spoke on an MEF podcast.
By: Marilyn Stern

Dominic Green, historian and columnist, spoke to a recent Middle East Forum Podcast about the alarming growth of Islamism in the United Kingdom.

Why it matters: The U.K.'s leniency has allowed parallel Islamist societies to flourish, creating a breeding ground for extremism that threatens national security.

  • With 40,000 individuals under surveillance for Islamist activities, the nation stands on the brink of chaos.

A fractured society: Decades of misguided immigration policies have led to isolated communities resistant to assimilation.

  • Radical groups exploit the U.K.'s free speech traditions, operating with impunity.

  • For example, East London is peppered with Islamist institutions openly tied to terrorist organizations and enabled by the British historical “traditions of free speech and tolerance.”

The bottom line: As public anger mounts, the political establishment faces intense pressure to act decisively.

  • Without urgent reform, the U.K. risks descending into civil unrest, mirroring the Troubles’ territorial and sectarian strife.

  • “I think there’s going to be a massive, massive public reaction against all of this and it’s going to, with a bit of luck, change the nature of our governments and change their assumptions about what their responsibilities are.”

To read the full summary and watch the video, click here.

Eurabia: If AI Is More Real than Journalism

Image by ChatGPT 4.0
By: Giulio Meotti

An AI-generated video—based on current demographic projections—paints a stark picture of Paris in 2050, overtaken by Islamist influence—a chilling forecast that could prove accurate if Europe's trajectory remains unchanged.

Why it matters: This vision underscores the potential for seismic cultural shifts as Muslim demographics rise unchecked, transforming the heart of Europe.

  • Imagine the Eiffel Tower amid Muslims in prayer, a green flag waving, and the Seine under a "Purity through Obedience" banner.

A changing landscape: Marseille exemplifies this shift, as its Muslim population was between 30 and 40 percent over a decade ago. Today is has 80 Islamic worship sites.

  • Such changes echo past warnings of societal transformation and challenge the European identity of these and other cities.

The bottom line: Without decisive action, Europe risks succumbing to the future portrayed by the AI video—a future in which European culture has been swept away.

To read the full article, click here.

MTG’s ‘Special Interest Aliens’ Bill Deserves Democrat Support

Rep. Green’s bill would require the Department of Homeland Security to start sharing with Americans on a public website, for the first time, the damagingly long-held state secret of how many special i...
By: Todd Bensman

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green's "Special Interest Alien Reporting Act" targets the alarming secrecy around special interest aliens (SIAs) crossing U.S. borders.

Why it matters: This bill demands Department of Homeland Security (DHS) transparency on SIA entries from terrorist-linked countries, holding DHS accountable for border security lapses that have let potential threats slip through.

  • The attack on Chicago’s orthodox Jewish community by an SIA from Mauritania last October underscores the dire need for reform as mass-release policies crippled effective screenings.

Breaking the silence: For too long, DHS has concealed SIA crossing data and screening failures. Green's bill pulls back the curtain, pushing for public awareness and action.

  • Publishing these numbers could force a return to stringent screening processes, crucial for national safety.

The urgent call: Bensman’s proposed amendments seek not just transparency but accountability, demanding details on screening percentages and evolving threats.

  • The bill is an urgent call for bipartisan unity to ensure national security and prevent future border failures.

To read the full article, click here.

Further Reading:

nuclear iran

As talks with Iran continue and events across the Middle East develop daily, the Middle East Forum strives to keep you informed with concise analyses you can count on. As always, we invite you to forward this issue to a friend and to use the comments feature to let us know your thoughts on the Dispatch and the issues we cover.

Sincerely,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government.

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