MEF Dispatch: Iran in Turmoil; Why the Opposition Keeps Failing; Druze Leader Pleas for Help

Iran Is in Turmoil--but the Opposition Keeps Failing; Druze Leader Pleas for Help

By Winfield Myers ● Jul 18, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 8.5 mins...2289 words

Mardo Soghom and Dalga Khatinoglu say postwar Iran is in turmoil, with the resulting economic distress compounded by “a sense of political humiliation” that “permeates Iranian society.” Despite this, writes Potkin Azarmehr, the Iranian opposition spends more time and money flying to Western capitals and preening on social media than organizing a solid opposition inside Iran. Still, argues Benjamin Baird, a series of bills before Congress would, if passed, dramatically weaken the regime in Tehran and set the stage for its collapse.

Syrian Druze leader Hikmat Al-Hijri, in an emotional plea translated by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, asks President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu, “and all who possess a force and influence in this world … save al-Suwayda” from Syrian jihadis. “Save a people,” he says, “being killed for merely having demanded life and dignity.”

We also feature two articles by Michael Rubin—on Yemen and Somalia—and an analysis by Loqman Radpey of a call from the leader of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party for the organization to disband.

ICYMI: Israel and Civilization: The Fate of the Jewish Nation and the Destiny of the West with Josh Hammer

Rising antisemitism, multiculturalism, and postmodern relativism currently threaten the well being and security of Israel and the Jewish people. Josh Hammer argues that the West’s survival hinges on Israel’s strength and the Jewish people’s right to self-determination. From the trauma of October 7, 2023, to global anti-Israel sentiment, the stakes are clear: a proud Jewish heritage is vital to the West’s endurance. How does Israel stand as the West’s bulwark against Islamist terrorism and secular nihilism? What does a grand alliance of Jews and Christians mean for the future of civilization?

Josh Hammer is senior editor-at-large of Newsweek, and a fellow with the Edmund Burke Foundation and Palm Beach Freedom Institute. He hosts The Josh Hammer Show, a Newsweek podcast and syndicated radio program, and is a frequent pundit and essayist on political, legal, and cultural issues. He previously served as an editor at the Daily Wire, and his work has appeared in outlets including the Los Angeles Times, New York Post, Daily Mail, National Review, The Spectator, Townhall, Fortune, Fox Business, the Jerusalem Post, the Times of Israel, The Forward, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, and Jewish Journal. Josh holds a degree in economics from Duke University and a J.D. from the University of Chicago Law School.

To watch the full podcast, click here.

Iran’s Turmoil Deepens After War with Israel

Iran's economic and political challenges have intensified following a brief war with Israel, further exposing the regime's incompetence and inability to address its myriad issues.

The government's failure to manage the aftermath of the strikes has laid bare its structural weaknesses and eroded any remaining public confidence.

Why it matters: The conflict has severely shaken public trust, highlighting the regime's ineptitude in handling economic decline and energy shortages.

Iran's leadership is increasingly seen as incapable of stabilizing the economy, worsening the plight of its citizens.

By the numbers: Trade figures reveal the depth of economic distress, with non-oil exports plummeting by 12 percent and oil exports by 16 percent.

This stark decline, coupled with a 30 percent drop in oil revenues, underscores the regime's inability to manage its economic affairs effectively.

What's next: A sense of political humiliation permeates Iranian society. Israel’s airstrikes exposed the Islamic Republic’s inability to foresee or counter a major attack. This failure, many Iranians argue, has stripped away any remaining image of the regime as a strong or competent state.

The shock has only reinforced the perception of a government in terminal decline—a government whose structural weaknesses already had devastated its economy, environment, and social cohesion.

To read the full article, click here.

Why Iran’s Opposition Keeps Failing

Iranian opposition groups continue to falter in their attempts to oust the ruling regime, largely due to a lack of organization and strategic planning.

The entrenched security apparatus of the Islamic Republic effectively suppresses dissent, but the opposition's failure to build credible networks inside Iran is also to blame.

Why it matters: Many Iranians long for the secularism of the Pahlavi era, but nostalgia alone isn't enough to topple an authoritarian regime.

Unlike Khomeini's revolution, which was rooted in a network of mosques and grassroots mobilization, today's opposition lacks a coherent plan or structure inside Iran.

By the numbers: The Iranian opposition abroad has spent fortunes on conferences and summits, yet achieved little in terms of tangible results.

Instead of building internal networks, opposition leaders have become more focused on media appearances and social media debates.

What's next: Until Iran’s fractured opposition learns to match the regime’s efficiency with its own discipline and creates a real plan for the day after, nothing will change.

For the Iranian people to bring down the regime, Iran needs a full-time leader willing to abandon a comfortable life, take real risks, and build something real inside the country.

To read the full article, click here.

Announcing MEF’s Internship Program

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To apply: Send cover letter & resume to [email protected]

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Congress Can Crush Iran’s Regime Without Firing a Single Shot

The U.S. bombardment of Iranian nuclear facilities may have set back the regime’s ambitions, but without decisive Congressional action, Iran could recover.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian proxies pose ongoing threats with near-daily drone strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq.

Why it matters: A legislative package could neutralize Iran’s regime without military intervention.

Codifying Trump’s “maximum pressure” policies, imposing energy sanctions, and designating proxies as terrorist organizations could destabilize the regime.

The bottom line: The Republican Study Committee's proposals offer a path forward. The Maximum Pressure Act and related measures aim to close sanctions loopholes, empower Iranian citizens, and dismantle Iran’s proxy forces in Iraq.

The Maximum Support Act prioritizes internet freedom, providing secure Virtual Privacy Networks, satellite-to-cell technology, and anti-surveillance tools to bypass the regime’s censorship and blackouts.

Through the Iranian Terror Prevention Act, the U.S. can shut down the Popular Mobilization Forces and other Shiite militias that are part of Iraq’s state military structures.

What's next: It’s time to set partisanship aside, support the people of Iran, and crush Iran’s brutal and destructive regime.

The RSC's initiative provides tools to support Iranian freedom without deploying ground troops.

To read the full article, click here.

MEF Action Alert: Urge Congress to Protect Syrian Minorities from Sunni Islamists

Syria’s Alawite and Druze communities, along with Christians, Kurds, and other vulnerable minorities, face escalating atrocities under the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led government. From July 14 to July 17, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has documented 516 deaths in Suweida, including 86 Druze murdered in “field executions” carried out by government forces or allied militias. Reports detail looting, burning of homes, and humiliation of Druze leaders, with videos showing government-affiliated fighters desecrating Druze symbols. In March 2025, Reuters reported over 1,500 Alawites killed in coastal cities by Syrian security forces and affiliated militias. These acts fuel fears of genocide against Syria’s minorities, exacerbated by HTS’s jihadist roots and failure to curb sectarian violence.

Congress must act swiftly to address this crisis. Renewing sanctions against the HTS-led government would pressure it to halt abuses and protect minorities. Supporting Israel’s targeted strikes to defend the Druze, as seen in Suweida and Damascus, is critical to deter further aggression. Opening a humanitarian corridor into Jordan would provide safe passage for displaced civilians, addressing the dire needs of 16.5 million Syrians requiring aid in 2025.

Your voice can make a difference. By joining our campaign, you’ll send letters to Congress urging immediate action to stop the killings, protect vulnerable communities, and ensure humanitarian relief. The Alawites, Druze, and other minorities deserve safety and justice. Without intervention, sectarian violence risks destabilizing Syria further, threatening millions.

Click here to sign up now for our letter-writing campaign to demand Congress intervene on behalf of Syrian minorities!

Hikmat Al-Hijri’s Appeal for International Intervention to Help Al-Suwayda’

Hikmat al-Hijri, one of the three most senior Druze leader in Syria, has issued a statement, translated with commentary by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, appealing for international protection as government pressure mounts. Below are excerpts and explanations.

“We call on the free world and all the active forces therein, and we direct our call to his eminence President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, and his majesty King Abdullah II, and all who possess a force and influence in this world … save al-Suwayda.”

The message, shared via Facebook, addresses global leaders, including Israel’s prime minister, urging intervention.

Why it matters: Hijri's statement highlights existential threats to the Druze community in al-Suwayda’, citing systematic massacres and destruction.

“The mask has fallen from the face of this oppressive, tyrannical ruling gang.”

The stakes: The Syrian government's potential use of force to solidify control could escalate if external interventions, such as Israeli airstrikes, increase.

“We have never been enemies or adversaries, and we are no longer able to live with a regime that only knows how to rule by iron and fire, and only knows how to exert authority through force and inflicting harm.”

What's next: Hijri's translation emphasizes a desperate plea for global powers and regional leaders to act before the situation deteriorates further.

“Our call to you is not political, but humanitarian and ethical, before it’s too late. Save a people being killed for merely having demanded life and dignity.”

To read the full statement, click here.

Kick Islah Out of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council

Western diplomats and the U.N. deserve criticism for ignoring evidence of Amjad Khaled's terrorist activities. Khaled, a former Yemeni military commander, is accused of aligning with terrorist groups while under the political cover of Islah, Yemen's Muslim Brotherhood affiliate.

Why it matters: Khaled's case highlights Islah as a Trojan Horse within Yemen's government, complicating efforts to stabilize the region.

The failure to address Khaled's links to Al Qaeda and the Houthis has perpetuated Yemen’s insecurity.

The bottom line: Islah’s influence has enabled terrorist activities under the guise of political participation.

International acknowledgment of Islah’s role is crucial to ending backdoor support for terrorism.

What's next: If the United States and the international community hope to stabilize Yemen, it is time to end the backdoor support for terrorists that Islah represents and Khaled’s case proves.

Ending support for groups linked to terrorism is key to stabilizing the region and supporting anti-Houthi efforts.

To read the full article, click here.

Öcalan’s U-Turn from Resisting to Embracing Turkey

On July 9, 2025, Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), proposed steps toward "Peace and Democratic Society" in Turkey, suggesting the PKK disband. The PKK, a Kurdish militant and political organization, has historically sought autonomy for Kurds in Turkey.

Why it matters: Öcalan's proposal could dissolve the Kurdish movement into the Turkish state, a paradoxical shift given its foundation on resisting Kurdish denial.

The PKK was born out of the denial of Kurdish existence within Turkey. The idea that the Kurdistan question can be resolved by joining the framework that necessitated armed resistance to begin with appears historically naive at best, and politically irresponsible at worst.

The stakes: Without Turkish concessions or guarantees, this move risks disarming the Kurdish movement with no tangible benefits.

Öcalan's optimism overlooks ongoing conflicts and the lack of genuine reforms.

What's next: Öcalan's call risks squandering a rare historical moment—one in which regional shifts, following Israel’s decapitation of Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran’s exposed weakness in the eyes of the world—that could offer the Kurds a once-in-a-century opportunity to establish second and third Kurdish entities in Syria and Iran.

The absence of state obligations or international mediation could squander this rare historical opportunity.

To read the full article, click here.

It’s Time to Cut Off Somalia’s Military Assistance

The United States, European Union, and African Union have heavily invested in Somalia's military to combat Al-Shabaab, yet these efforts are undermined by the country's pervasive corruption and mismanagement.

Despite $100 million annually from the U.S. for military support, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's regime diverts resources from the anti-Al-Shabaab campaign.

Why it matters: Somalia, under Mohamud, ranks as the world's second most corrupt nation, with Western aid enabling rather than curbing corruption.

Transparency International's ratings reflect systemic issues that compromise donor intentions.

The stakes: Mohamud's actions, such as approving arms to Laascanood, demonstrate a focus on personal political gains over national security.

Western support inadvertently props up a regime that fails to prioritize the fight against Al-Shabaab.

What's next: Neither President Donald Trump nor Secretary of State Marco Rubio are afraid to break diplomatic china.

Rather than repeat the failures of Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden and Secretaries Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, and Antony Blinken, Trump and Rubio should stop throwing good money after bad and recognize that Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s corruption and cynicism post as much of a threat to peace and stability as Al-Shabaab.

To read the full article, click here.

We hope you enjoyed this issue of the Dispatch and that it was useful in understanding the complex issues central to MEF’s mission. If you enjoyed it, please pass it along to a friend, and please share your thoughts in the comments.

Thank you,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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