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| Wednesday, December 11, 2024 |
It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! Instead of only focusing on passing games and following the typical Wednesday structure of examining pass rush and coverage type notes specifically, today
I am going to highlight any pertinent matchup notes relating to players who may be in the fringe start/sit range for managers in the Fantasy playoffs. I'll get to as much as I can, I hope it helps you feel better about important decisions this week! |
| In case you missed it: Dan and I just finished recording this week's Beyond the Box Score Part Two! We discussed basically every Fantasy-relevant player from every team to help you feel more informed about the recent usage trends around the league. Pair that with matchup notes, and you are about as close as one can get to a reasonable confidence about what might happen in Fantasy football. |
| I wanted to get into more start/sit discussions with Dan on that podcast, but we ran out of time. That's why I'm combining the typical two-day matchup note process into one today -- Friday's newsletter will be devoted to detailing start/sit decisions, including flex questions. I have to make a decision between Christian Watson, Mark Andrews, and Jaylen Warren in one league. What a weird group of players to try to evaluate relative to one another! |
| We'll do our best this week, I hope to see you back in this space next week for the semifinal round! |
| For reference, here are the players who I ended up highlighting today: |
| Arizona Cardinals with emphasis on MHJRhamondre StevensonCleveland Browns with an emphasis on Jerry JeudyAmari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson WilliamsDavante Adams and Garrett WilsonJakobi Meyers, Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloudRico Dowdle and CeeDee Lamb Chuba Hubbard and Adam Thielen |
| It's a long one. |
| Week 15 Matchup Notes |
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Can we trust Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals?
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| It has been a rocky ride at times with Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., and even James Conner and Trey McBride. Since the bye week, McBride has been locked in as the every-week target hog, and he's been the only one who has not given at least one bust performance over that three-week span. |
| On paper, the Week 15 outlook is fantastic. |
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| Below are the opponents to face the Patriots over the past couple of months: |
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| All but the Chicago Bears put up productive days (at least 70 combined team-wide Fantasy points), with several teams (including the Jets, Jaguars, and Titans) putting up huge totals. There's upside for 120+ combined PPR points for the Arizona Cardinals, which leaves open the possibility for any of their offensive players to be week-winners. Take that into consideration. I know it has been frustrating to roster some of these players. |
| This could be the MHJ breakout game. Jaylen Waddle got his season going to the tune of 9-144-1 vs. the Pats in Week 12. Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, and Garrett Wilson all went for 100+ yards vs. the Pats. Brian Thomas Jr. caught five of five targets for 89 yards vs. New England in Week 7. Christian Gonzalez is a stud. He can't play 1 vs. 11. This Patriots defense has been leaky as a unit, there's only so much any one player can do. |
| I'm intrigued by this matchup for MHJ because the Pats use a ton of man (39% - 3rd most in the NFL) and press coverage (65% - 8th). MHJ has crushed against press coverage and has strong man coverage splits as well. I don't want to go overboard with expectations (he's currently the WR23 in my rankings) because of the occasional-hit-but-often-miss nature of the Murray-MHJ connection (and the Gonzo matchup), but there's definitely more upside than usual because of this matchup. In Friday's newsletter, I'll discuss ranges of outcomes and which players feel the "safest" vs. the higher risk-reward players to hopefully help you evaluate how to attack your Week 15 Fantasy matchup. |
| Because I am aiming to cover so much ground this week to help people make tough decisions, I won't spend as much time on the following players (including James Conner): |
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| You might be surprised to find rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (currently catching passes -- attempting to, at least -- from Mac Jones) among this group. If so, here is some (and even more, if you're a visual learner) content for you: |
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| Alrighty, before we leave this Arizona game, I do want to highlight Rhamondre Stevenson. |
| Rhamondre Stevenson is a risky bet. |
| I wouldn't blame anyone for preferring some of the recent waiver wire RB additions in Week 15. |
| The Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites. This game could get ugly if Kyler Murray and Trey McBride are FINALLY able to connect for some touchdowns together. We could see Drake Maye make mistakes against a Cardinals defense that is unusual and drops a ton of secondary defenders back to have eyes on the QB. There are paths to this game getting ugly. |
| When games have gotten ugly for New England, we've seen that Stevenson's RB rush share (typically one of the highest in the NFL) can actually approach the 50-50 split range. |
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| Antonio Gibson has played really well lately and earned passing downs reps. We could see him cut into Stevenson's workload if the Pats fall behind early. |
| The Cardinals are a defense that typically funnels opposing offensive touches to the RB position, so there's certainly upside for Stevenson. I do worry that he could finish with only a few points if the game script gets away from the Pats in Week 15. |
| Forming expectations for Patrick Mahomes vs. Jameis Winston |
| The over/under for Chiefs-Browns sits at 44.5 points. So far, 2024 games involving Winston have yielded 49.3 combined points on average. Three of the six have gone under 44.5 points, those games involved the Steelers (twice) and the Chargers (the Browns only scored 10 points). Will Winston and the Browns be able to move the ball against the Chiefs? That will likely be the deciding factor in how high-scoring this game becomes. |
| The Browns have faced some really good defenses, and outside of turning the ball over, Cleveland has moved the chains effectively. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs turn Winston over. Only the Raiders and Jaguars have a lower takeaway number than Kansas City's defense. |
| If the Browns are successful in moving the ball, it will almost certainly come through the air. The ground game has been struggling, and the Chiefs are one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL. Opponents have found some success through the air vs. KC recently, especially since Jaylen Watson's injury opened a revolving door of new faces at the CB2 spot. Cedric Tillman (expected to return) will face the left CB the most. He's spent 40% of his routes on the left side. Jerry Jeudy (30%) spends a decent amount of time on the left, as the Browns move him all over. Trent McDuffie may follow Jeudy, though. |
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| None of the Browns receivers have performed well vs. press coverage in 2024. If betting on one, Tillman is who I'd have the most confidence in (relative to expectations) of the group, as he has the size to win contested catches and likely will draw the easiest individual matchup on most plays. You could use him as a desperation play. I'd prefer to mostly avoid the Browns receivers, including Jeudy. |
| This leads us to David Njoku. The offense has funneled more towards him in the short-area lately, with back-to-back games resulting in a first-read target share above 30% for Njoku. |
| Tight ends have been able to beat this Chiefs defense: |
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| The other important aspect of Kansas City's defense is the blitz/pressure rates. Of course we can't forget about that wily ole future hall of famer at DC. |
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| The Chiefs have the third-highest blitz rate (37%) defensively, and Winston's results have been right around league average vs. the blitz. I credit that to him. His off-target rate vs. the blitz is better than league average, falling in the same range as Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, and Baker Mayfield. Yet his catchable target rate vs. the blitz is one of the lowest in the NFL. How's that make sense? I don't think that his pass-catchers have been winning all that effectively. A big first step towards creating a catchable target is for the targeted-player to create separation and get open. When targeting a player who was charted as "open," "wide open," or with "one step of separation," (source: Fantasy Points Data Suite), Winston has delivered an 85% catchable target rate. That's identical to Patrick Mahomes and better than Josh Allen. |
| This brings me back to Jeudy and the matchup vs. McDuffie. I'm afraid that this game is going to ride on that matchup and how effectively Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman can win vs. secondary coverage cornerbacks. Because Winston has really focused on his receivers when bltized. Njoku has just a 18% target per route run rate when Winston has been blitzed. Jeudy and Moore have 26% rates. Jeudy has accounted for a whopping 53% of Winston's passing yardage vs. the blitz this season. Jeudy has been his guy. |
| The Browns have one of the lowest implied point totals for Week 15, and that might simply be the answer. |
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| This has been a long-winded way of me explaining why I'm so low on Jeudy. Because I am, turns out, I am way lower than consensus on him in Week 15. The expert consensus rankings have Jeudy at WR19. I have him ranked as the WR31. |
| Below, you'll see the range that he falls into in my rankings. I underlined the consensus rankings for all of the receivers who I have ranked ahead of him to give you an idea of where I fall relative to the general opinion. |
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| I believe you can justify starting Jeudy ahead of anyone pictured here. He leads the NFL in catchable air yardage over the past month. The Browns offense has been a cheat code for Fantasy. I also think that you could justify benching Jeudy for anyone pictured here based on matchup concerns. It comes down to your risk tolerance. In my opinion, Darnell Mooney, Khalil Shakir, Jordan Addison, Adam Thielen, Zay Flowers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Davante Adams, and Garrett Wilson all profile as "safer" plays. |
| Below is the range that Tillman and Moore fall into for me. Best of luck to you! |
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| On the Chiefs side of things, unless Winston is able to power a magical shootout, I expect this to be a run-heavy game. The offensive tackle spots have been a huge issue for Kansas City, and I wouldn't expect the Chiefs to test the dropback game vs. Myles Garrett unless forced to. |
| Amari Cooper's risk-reward proposition in a potential shootout |
| The over/under for the Bills-Lions game continues to shoot up. As of this writing, that O/U sits at 54.5 points, no other game has a number above 50. |
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| Last week's shootout resulted in the highest single air yardage mark of the 2024 season. We saw the Bills funnel a 44% first-read target share Cooper's way while playing from behind. That type of potential exists again in Week 15, and a much larger Fantasy outcome for Cooper could follow if he and Allen are able to convert on deep shots. |
| The range of outcomes opened up because of this matchup is extremely wide. I can't emphasize that enough. The Lions have the second-lowest catchable target rate (56%) allowed on throws of 10+ air yards. Over the past month, Detroit's rate is 45%, no other defense is below 50%. |
| The Lions defense is extremely aggressive. No defense uses more man coverage. Only four use more press coverage. Dan Campbell stares opponents dead in the eyes and asks, "can you beat us?" |
| Among 42 qualified receivers, Cooper ranks eighth in targets and 15th in yards per route run (1.72) vs. press coverage in 2024. He's still got it. He averaged a massive 2.57 yards per route run vs. press last year. One of the 14 qualified receivers with a better YPRR vs. press coverage is Keon Coleman. Defenses have tested the rookie, and he's occasionally beaten them for big plays as an answer. Both Coleman and Dalton Kincaid returned to Wednesday practice and appear on track to suit up in Week 15. You could let those two further muddle your outlook for Cooper, but I'm not so sure that makes sense; I think that we're most-likely looking at a handful of deep shots for Cooper, regardless of who suits up for Buffalo. And if the game turns into a shootout, that handful could turn into two. If you need to take a shot on Cooper's multi-TD upside, feel free to do so with the understanding that the margins for error are razor-thin. You could get cut from the playoffs because of this single decision! |
| What about Khalil Shakir? |
| Before the Coleman/Kincaid news, I viewed Shakir as basically locked into lineups. Adding those two to the equation could complicate things for him, especially if the Bills want to keep Curtis Samuel (only one fewer route run than Cooper in Week 14) involved. |
| This isn't necessarily a great schematic fit for Shakir. Preferably, we use him when the Bills are facing a zone-heavy defense. The Lions defense profiles similarly to KC, ranking top-five in blitz rate and man coverage rate. Shakir has improved his man coverage splits from a 2023 in which he was almost entirely dependent on finding holes in zone coverage to produce, but he's still clearly best against zone. Shakir has a 21% target and 1.94 yard per route run rate vs. man, compared to rates of 32% and 2.94 vs. zone coverage in 2024. |
| Check back later in the week to see where I land on Shakir's rank. I think that he'll be an important piece of Buffalo's offense regardless in a high-flying game, so I don't want to overreact to the matchup notes. I'll update his ranking after thinking about it more. |
| Can we trust Sam LaPorta? |
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| Hopefully there are enough wide receiver options on your roster for you to not need to trust Cooper. That's less-likely to be true at the tight end position for anyone who rosters LaPorta. Like Cooper, LaPorta's Week 15 Fantasy outcome is likely predicated on finding the end zone. |
| This has absolutely not been a defense to attack with tight ends, and Matt Milano's return to the field makes it an even scarier matchup. |
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| Jameson Williams is the Lions player who I like this matchup the most for. The Bills rank top-five in two-high safety coverage use, and Williams is top-five in yards per route run (2.74) vs. two-high. His target per route run rate has risen from 19% vs. single-high to 24% vs. two-high. |
| Do we just keep starting Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson? |
| Speaking of two-high safeties, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets face a unique Jacksonville Jaguars defense in Week 15. The NFL's most-common coverage scheme is a single-high zone scheme -- Cover-3. The Jags rank last in the NFL with just a 12% rate. The Lions and Chiefs (each at 16%) are the only other teams with a rate below 20%. |
| Rodgers has been dreadful against Cover-3 in 2024. He ranks 34th out of 36th qualifiers in completion percentage over expectation vs. Cover-3. Anthony Richardson is the only qualified QB with a higher off-target rate than Rodgers vs. Cover-3. We've seen that bleed into the receiving rates for Wilson and Adams, even though Cover-3 typically results in boosts for WR1 types. |
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| Against a Jags defense that almost never uses Cover-3 and instead employs the use of man coverage (second-highest rate in the NFL - 41%) and a myriad of two-high zones, maybe we can trust Rodgers to deliver the ball to his two stud receivers. |
| If simply removing Cover-3 from the data set, Rodgers moves to middle of the pack in most metrics and actually has the third-highest 'highly-accurate throw' rate. With Cover-3 removed, Wilson (2.20) and Adams (1.93) each actually have decent yard per route run rate (only including the games played together). Adams has a higher target share and lower average depth of target within that split; that's right in line with the role that we've seen these two settle into -- Wilson offers more upside, Adams sees more bankable short targets. |
| Desmond Ridder complicates things, but I'm totally fine starting Jakobi Meyers vs. the Falcons |
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| Desmond Ridder revenge game! What could go wrong? For what it's worth, Meyers was Ridder's most-targeted player in Week 14. Six of 10 of his targets came after Ridder took over at QB. |
| The top two teams in catchable target rate allowed on throws of 10+ air yards face off this weekend. Will Ridder and Kirk Cousins be able to assist in the completions of catches enough to take advantage of such a spot? Vegas feels more confidence in Atlanta (24-point implied total) than the Raiders (20), and generally seems unenthused by this game. That's fair, but we've seen Falcons defensive backs literally falling over themselves and looking in the opposite direction of balls in the air lately. |
| I bring Meyers up because I have him ranked notably lower than consensus. I have him directly behind Darnell Mooney. To me, both are the 1B in their offense (to be fair, Meyers has led the Raiders in first-read target rate in two of the past three games), and I feel slightly more confident in Mooney's offense. The Falcons moved the ball last week, turnovers just were killer. |
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| I have Meyers ranked ahead of some really good real-life players. I'm totally fine starting him. The matchup is good. There are just a surprising number of receivers who I feel excited for in Week 15. |
| Both the Raiders and Falcons play pretty hands-off -- each defense ranks bottom-10 in press coverage rate and pressure rate. Both have neutral defensive schemes. Both allow catchable targets at a high rate. This leaves it up to the QB play to facilitate good offense. |
| The one outlier note that I found for either defense, and it was that the Raiders defense has the league's highest opponent pass rate over expectation. Opposing offenses have attacked the Raiders with the pass. Makes sense, it's been easy to create catchable targets against the Raiders. It all comes down to Kirk Cousins. |
| Kirk Cousins has honestly been pretty good when kept clean in 2024 |
| When throwing from a clean pocket, Cousins ranks seventh in highly-accurate throws and 12th in catchable ball rate. It's been a bit messier when pressured. |
| Drake London has been by far the most sensitive splits -- when it comes to filtering out pressure or no pressure on Cousins, London's yard per route run rate drops from 2.72 all the way to 1.04. When kept clean, Cousins has found his guys. |
| Target per route run rate when Cousins is not pressured: |
33% -- London
25% -- Mooney
22% -- Bijan Robinson
21% -- Ray-Ray McCloud
19% -- Kyle Pitts |
| I feel good about all of the Falcons (well, it's nearly impossible to feel good about Pitts at the moment) in a game where Cousins will simply be asked to read and deliver quick throws. I believe he can do that. The Raiders are tied for the fewest takeaways in football. This feels like the cleanest and most-confident that I've been on the Falcons in a long time. What could go wrong? |
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| Rico Dowdle draws another favorable matchup |
| The Panthers have the second-lowest defensive EPA on inside zone runs, and Rico Dowdle has the highest inside zone run rate (40%) among qualified backs. The Cowboys run game has been working quite well recently, and I expect that we'll see it functional against Carolina as well. Surprisingly, the Cowboys have still posted a positive pass rate over expectation in each of the past three games, even with Dowdle running so effectively. |
| Carolina has the fifth-lowest opponent pass rate over expectation. It makes sense to me that the Cowboys will attack this defense the same way that many before them have -- with the ground game. But we could also see the boys just continue attacking with short passing. A recipe of heavy passing and picking the right spots to run has mostly worked lately. The Cowboys beat the Commanders on the road three weeks ago. Dallas almost beat Cincinnati last week. |
| And still, Vegas only has the Cowboys (2.5-point road dogs) implied for 20 points vs. the Panthers. Carolina's offense has played well enough that we could reasonably expect a big point total (putting pressure on the Cowboys to pass) in this one. If the Cowboys do pass a lot, then CeeDee Lamb could pile up a massive PPR point total. Carolina has the lowest pressure rate by far in spite of a relatively high blitz rate. Lately, the Panthers have blitzed like crazy! Carolina blitzed Jalen Hurts on 57% of his dropbacks last week. Before that, the blitz rate was 36% vs. Baker Mayfield. When blitzed, Cooper Rush has fed a 39% target per route run rate to Lamb. |
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| On paper, this is an easy matchup for the Panthers |
| The Cowboys have the third-worst defensive EPA per opponent RB rush attempt, and their opponent pass rate over expectation is the seventh-lowest. Chuba Hubbard probably puts in work in this spot. The Cowboys have been especially awful against man/gap runs; Hubbard is used primarily on outside zone and inside man/gap runs. He'll probably gash the Cowboys up the middle, and we may just see this game end quickly as both offenses lean on the running backs. |
| The Cowboys defense is healthier than it has been in some time, and I don't think the year-long pass defense statistics are representative of the current unit. The Cowboys have faced really good pass games in 2024. The "worst" opposing WR1 that Dallas has faced to this point might be Amari Cooper in Week 1. I guess Deebo Samuel is probably the answer. It's been a really crazy run of opposing WR1's for the Cowboys to contend with. |
| I bring that up because the Cowboys have the league's third-highest opponent first-read rate allowed. No defense has seen a higher percentage of opponent targets go to boundary wide receivers. Are these stats due to Dallas being an easy matchup for opposing WR1's, or are these really just telling us that the Cowboys have had to try to slow down Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Malik Nabers, Ja'Marr Chase, and a bunch of other receivers who are in the top-15 discussion? |
| Adam Thielen feels like a really foolproof play for Week 15. Bryce Young has had some really good moments and looked much more decisive vs. pressure lately. He still ranks just middle-of-the-pack in most accuracy metrics lately. And he's been much more likely to find Thielen (29% target per route run rate) when not pressured than when under pressure (18%). The Cowboys rank top-five in pressure rate. Micah Parsons is healthy. It is realistic that the Panthers pass-game could fall apart, and I just want to point that out because I feel a bit irresponsible about how high I have a 34-year-old Thielen ranked. |
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| I'm way above consensus in this spot. I think it makes sense! The Panthers are in the same range as the Seahawks and Jets in terms of implied points for Week 15. Thielen blows the above players out of the water in terms of underlying target volume rates. I feel better about his chances of getting double-digit PPR points than just a select group of receivers in Week 15. But he's not a sure thing, we know better than to assume anything with this Panthers team. |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube! |
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