| |
|
| Wednesday, December 4, 2024 |
| It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! Today's matchups will be pass-game-centric, with Thursday's newsletter focused more on the run game. |
| Dan and I just finished recording this week's Beyond the Box Score Part Two, check it out! |
| Under Pressure -- how might blitz/pressure rates impact Week 14? |
| |
Derek Carr, Juwan Johnson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling may be viable streamers vs. the Giants
|
| The New York Giants have the lowest pressure rate over the past month, and Dexter Lawrence just joined Azeez Ojulari on the IR. Those two rank fourth and second, respectively, in pressure rate on non-blitz plays. The Giants haven't created a pressure rate above 20% in either of the past two games. |
| Derek Carr is the QB6 in passer rating (out of 38 qualifiers) on non-pressured dropbacks in 2024. He's QB7 in 'catchable ball' rate and QB15 in 'highly accurate throw' rate when not pressured, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite. |
| In Week 13, Juwan Johnson set a new season-high with a 77% route rate. The Saints have slow-rolled his return from an offseason foot surgery (he's currently dealing with a "foot issue" to start the Week 14 practice cycle), and he now appears ready to handle a full-time role. His Week 13 first-read target rate (26%) led the Saints, and we could see that grow further with Taysom Hill out for the season. |
| Nothing about the matchup stands out as particularly inviting for MVS, who is of course always a risky play. If the depleted Giants defensive front struggles to create pressure, the Saints may have more time to dial up play action deep shots. |
| Will Levis has aired it out when not pressured |
| Levis has the 17th-highest average depth of target (out of 36 qualifiers) when pressured and the seventh-highest aDOT when not pressured. When Levis has not been pressured, Calvin Ridley has an average depth of target of 19.1 yards. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has an aDOT of 14.6 yards when Levis has not been pressured. |
| In Week 14, the Titans face a Jaguars defense that has the second-lowest pressure rate over the past month and ranks 30th on the year. No defense has blitzed less than Jacksonville's. |
| Both Titans wide receivers are startable this week. Westbrook-Ikhine actually led the team in first-read targets last week. And on the year, only two of his 11 receptions coming from the hand of the Mayo Man have come when Levis was pressured. He's only been targeted on five percent of his routes run on plays when Levis was under pressure. |
| Target per route run rate when Levis has not been pressured: |
27% -- Ridley
22% -- Westbrook-Ikhine |
| Yards per route run when Levis has not been pressured: |
2.81 -- Westbrook-Ikhine
2.24 -- Ridley |
| Mike Evans needs 96 receiving yards per game from this point on to keep the 1k streak alive |
| He's averaged 93 yards in his first two games and was limited somewhat in the first one. And I think we could see Evans run it up for 200+ against the Raiders in Week 14. |
| |
| |
| Baker Mayfield has been pretty sensitive to pressure. He's much more likely to scramble when pressured, and he's more likely to stand in and take shots down the field when not. |
| The Raiders rank 27th in pressure rate on the year, and Maxx Crosby just has not presented the pressure problem that he has in the past. The FP Data Suite suggests that this is the most advantageous pass protection matchup of the week: |
| |
| Also potentially working in the favor of Evans is the fact that the Raiders have the highest opponent pass rate over expectation. Opposing offenses have chosen to pass more than expected given the circumstances of any given play at a higher rate against the Raiders than any defense in the NFL. Baker and the Bucs certainly are happy to air it out, and that may be even more so the case if Tampa wants to limit the workload for Bucky Irving (hip). |
| Oh by the way, Evans has accumulated 160 of his 186 yards when Mayfield has not been pressured over the past two weeks. He has a gargantuan 45% target per route run rate when Mayfield has been kept clean since returning to play as the unquestioned alpha WR1 without Chris Godwin. Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are the only two receivers who I have ranked ahead of Evans for Week 14. |
| Week 14 Coverage Data |
| |
| Huge upside exists for the Packers receivers against Detroit |
| The Packers have been extremely run-heavy in the red zone recently, which has led to some massive Fantasy point totals for Josh Jacobs. We may see more of that in Week 14. Whether it comes on the ground or through the air, I think we can feel reasonably confident in Green Bay's offense producing some touchdowns in this matchup. The over/under (51.5 points) is the highest in the NFL. |
| Jordan Love did drop back to pass 39 times against Detroit in Week 9, and the Lions have the sixth-highest opponent pass rate over expectation, so it feels like a decent week to place a bet on increased target upside for Jayden Reed and the boys. Reed is who had the big performance (5-113 receiving on 6 targets) against the Lions last time, and Christian Watson was the one who left a ton of empty air yards on the field. Both of those results make sense to me, based on the matchup. The Lions have been a defense to attack with slots and use more man coverage than any defense. Reed shreds man coverage, of course. He has an elite 3.59 yards per route run when facing individual man coverage in 2024, per the FP Data Suite. Romeo Doubs (2.22) and Watson (1.99) also have decent splits vs. man. Each of those three rates were pulled from games that Jordan Love played in, I excluded the Malik Willis games. |
| The Lions also use a ton of press coverage, which leaves open upside for a huge Watson game. Watson's 3.21 yards per route run when facing press coverage and receiving targets from Love in 2024 is an elite rate. Since the start of 2023 (with Love on the field), Watson leads Green Bay in targets, first downs, and yards per route run vs. press. He's a risky play, like always, but there's upside for big catches and multiple touchdowns against the Lions. |
| Jakobi Meyers a borderline Fantasy WR1 vs. the Bucs? |
| |
| |
| The Raiders take on a Buccaneers defense that has been blitzing even more than usual lately and actually leads the NFL in pressure rate over the past month. I worry about Aidan O'Connell's limited mobility in this matchup, but we did see him put up huge numbers against the Chiefs last week. Vegas (the line setters, not the city that backs this team) has the Raiders implied for a respectable point total against the Bucs, so we may see big receiving volume created for Brock Bowers and company once again. |
| Particularly, I'm interested in Meyers in this matchup. Start Bowers, of course. Play him in DFS. Meyers feels like maybe the more overlooked of the two, and he has great splits vs. Cover-3 and vs. the blitz. Tampa ranks top of the league in both. This is an insanely small sample size, but with all three of O'Connell, Bowers, and Meyers on the field, the top target drawer vs. the blitz and vs. Cover-3 has been Meyers. Meyers has been targeted on 8 of 16 routes vs. Cover-3 within that split. Is he as dominant as Bowers? No, but he has been similarly involved as a focal point of the offense. His 33% first-read target rate in Week 13 barely trailed Bowers (38%). In Week 12, it was Meyers (34%) who led the team in first-read target rate. He projects as one of the best WR plays on the board in Week 14. |
| D.J. Moore and the Bears are only 3.5-point underdogs vs. the 49ers |
| |
| |
| NIck Bosa is still sidelined at Niners practice. I'm not sure what we can expect from San Francisco going forward, but the vibes have been bad for some time and now we find the Bears as just slight underdogs on the road. Pretty interesting! |
| The 49ers have used more Cover-3 as the year has progressed, and only four defenses have a higher Cover-3 rate (45%) over the past month. San Francisco's single-high rate is up to 68% during that time, and only the Bengals have a higher Fantasy point per dropback allowed from single-high safety looks. |
| Of the Bears receivers, DJ Moore is the one who has fared the best vs. single-high coverage. And since the offensive coordinator change, Moore has an elite 30% target per route run rate to go with 2.65 yards per route run vs. single-high. Keenan Allen is the other player who has benefited from single-high and Cover-3 looks, specifically. And if looking at the three games since switching offensive play-callers, Allen (32% first-read target share) and Moore (29%) are the two pass-catchers who have benefited the most. No receiver had more 'expected fantasy points' than Moore in Week 13, according to Fantasy Points Data's model. It's always dicey rolling with the Bears, but this may be a decent week to take that risk. |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube! |
| |
| | | | | College Basketball | | Serie A | Can Arizona return to win column against Southern Utah? Watch live this Saturday at 2 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network.
Watch Live
| | Serie A is back on broadcast with a matchup between Juventus and Bologna! See who comes out on top this Saturday at 12 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
