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• G7 Israel Support: Leaders express support for Israel while calling Iran a source of regional instability - diplomatic alignment firming
• New Zealand-China Talks: PM's first China visit focusing on trade, tourism, and security cooperation - Pacific relationship balancing
• US-UK Trade Progress: Countries announce trade deal, though steel import issues remain unresolved - Brexit benefits materializing slowly
• Israeli Evacuation Flights: Slovakia and the Czech Republic receiving evacuees from the conflict zone - European humanitarian response
• Gaza Aid Tragedy: Israeli tank shelling kills 51 awaiting aid trucks, according to the ministry - humanitarian crisis deepening
• Taiwan Defense Deal: Island seals Ukraine combat-tested drone software agreement to help deter China - defense technology transfer
• Pentagon Iran Assessment: Defense chief says Trump still aiming for Iran deal despite escalation - diplomatic channels remaining open

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) ADM earns a “Buy” rating with a $66 target, backed by margin recovery and $200–300M in 2025 cost savings. The agricultural giant plans up to $750M in savings over 3–5 years through efficiency upgrades and workforce cuts. Despite weaker crush margins and falling insurance recoveries, ADM’s Decatur-East plant offers fresh leverage. With a 4.16% yield and 50 years of dividend growth, FY26 EPS is forecast at $4.70—above street estimates—as cost discipline drives earnings rebound. (Current price: $54.16, Analyst expectation: $66)

Geopolitical Risk Reset: Monday's cease-fire optimism proving premature as Iran-Israel conflict enters fifth day with Trump's Tehran evacuation call escalating tensions. Focus on energy security plays and defense contractors while avoiding Middle East-exposed consumer discretionary names vulnerable to sustained conflict.

Solar Sector Policy Shock: Senate Republicans' proposal to phase out solar/wind credits by 2028 creates massive sector headwind while extending hydro, nuclear, and geothermal through 2036. Rotate from renewable energy into traditional utilities and nuclear power plays benefiting from policy preference shifts.

Fed Meeting Preparation: Two-day FOMC begins today with rate decision Wednesday, though 3% cut probability suggests Powell's press conference will drive market direction. Oxford Economics notes prolonged oil conflict could accelerate dovish Fed pivot if growth concerns outweigh inflation fears.

Biotech Acquisition Appetite: Verve Therapeutics' 88% surge on Lilly acquisition talks ($1.3B deal) shows Big Pharma's continued appetite for gene editing innovation. Target smaller biotechs with compelling platforms and reasonable valuations ahead of a potential consolidation wave.

Retail Sales Reality Check: May data expected to show -0.5% headline vs +0.2% core retail sales, providing Fed additional ammunition for patient approach. Consumer spending resilience remains crucial for the soft landing narrative amid geopolitical and policy uncertainties.

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What happens when a crypto firm merges with a theme park toy company and adds Trump family connections into the mix?

That’s the case with Tron, the blockchain company led by controversial figure Justin Sun, now set to go public through a $210 million merger with SRM Entertainment. The result? A renamed entity, Tron Inc., which plans to invest company funds directly into its own cryptocurrency.

But here’s where it gets more intriguing. SRM’s shares surged 534% after the announcement. And another $100 million in stock is set to be issued to a mystery investor—money that will also go toward purchasing Tron tokens. Sounds familiar? It mirrors MicroStrategy’s playbook, with Michael Saylor loading up on Bitcoin as part of corporate treasury strategy.

Now add in Eric and Donald Trump Jr. Both have ties to Dominari Securities, the deal’s exclusive placement agent, and reportedly serve on the board of its parent company. There’s speculation Eric may even take an executive role at Tron.

Meanwhile, Sun, a self-declared “TOP fan” of Donald Trump, remains in the SEC’s crosshairs for alleged securities violations. Yet with the case reportedly on hold to “explore a potential resolution,” the timing of this deal—and its players—raises more than a few questions.

Could this be crypto’s latest power play? Or just another twist in a market that loves drama as much as disruption?

USD – 

• Core Retail Sales m/m – Actual: 0.2% | Forecast: 0.1%

• Retail Sales m/m – Actual: -0.5% | Forecast: 0.1%

• Import Prices m/m – Actual: -0.2% | Forecast: 0.1%

• Capacity Utilization Rate – Actual: 77.7% | Forecast: 77.7%

• Industrial Production m/m – Actual: 0.0% | Forecast: 0.0%

• Business Inventories m/m – Actual: 0.0% | Forecast: 0.1%

• NAHB Housing Market Index – Actual: 36 | Forecast: 34

• API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

Major earnings expected today:

• Jabil (JBL): Q3 results are expected before the open, with nearly a 23% profit increase expected as investors focus on margin stability across sectors
• John Wiley & Sons: Publishing company quarterly update
• La-Z-Boy: Furniture retailer earnings amid housing market pressures

Fed Rate Cut Conflict Catalyst: Oxford Economics argues prolonged Israel-Iran conflict could push Federal Reserve toward earlier rate cuts as sustained oil price rises threaten growth more than inflation. Chief economist Ryan Sweet notes sudden spikes historically cause temporary inflation Fed overlooks, but persistent surge poses bigger threat to jobs than prices with economy already softening.

Citi Sees Gold Below $3,000: Bank lowered short and long-term gold targets, projecting prices below $3,000/oz by late 2025 or early 2026 driven by declining investment demand and improving global growth outlook. Revised 0-3 month target to $3,300 from $3,500 and 6-12 month to $2,800 from $3,000 as "Trump popularity and US growth put" kicks in ahead of midterms.

Indonesian Coal Industry Warning: Jakarta-based Energy Shift report says world's biggest coal exporter facing mounting pressure as China and India cut imports of heavily polluting fuel. Industry accounting for 3.6% of economic activity and employing tens of thousands, needs diversification now or risks a costly forced transition later, despite a record 836 million tons 2024 production.

Goldman's China 'Prominent 10': Investment bank names large-cap Chinese companies expected to grow market share, including Tencent, Alibaba, and BYD as China's answer to "Magnificent Seven." Ten largest companies account for 17% of China's stock market vs 33% in U.S., offering fragmentation opportunity.

Western Brands China Retreat: Häagen-Dazs and Starbucks mulling overhauls to fend off powerful local rivals, with General Mills working on potential sale of 250+ China stores and Starbucks sounding out business interest. Decathlon also started process selling 30% of China operations as Western premium positioning faces local competition.

German Defense Startup Surge: Helsing raises €600 million led by Spotify founder Daniel Ek, valuing AI defense firm at $12 billion and positioning among Europe's top five private tech companies. Munich-based startup specializing in AI software and drone/aircraft production benefits from rising geopolitical tensions driving defense spending.

Iron Ore Demand Concerns: Futures headed for lowest close since September as Chinese mills curb steel output during rainy season slowdown. May steel production showed weakest showing since 2018, down 7% year-over-year on daily basis, while construction activity slows in southern China.

Google India Safety Expansion: Tech giant unveils Safety Charter expanding AI-led fraud detection as digital fraud grows 85% year-over-year to ₹11 billion. The company launched its fourth global security engineering center in India after Dublin, Munich, and Malaga to combat UPI payment scams and digital arrest frauds.

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Verve Therapeutics (⬆️ 88% to $11.77): The gene editing startup was served a biotech feast, as reports indicate Eli Lilly is in advanced talks to acquire the company for up to $1.3 billion! Financial Times sources suggest Lilly would pay almost $1 billion upfront and an additional $300 million based on clinical milestones. When Big Pharma comes knocking with an acquisition appetite, biotech shareholders always get the premium treatment.

Digital Turbine (APPS ⬆️ 7%): The tech firm jumped after posting upbeat Q4 results and issuing FY2026 guidance above Wall Street expectations. The company expects adjusted EBITDA of $85-90 million (midpoint $87.5M vs $85.2M estimate) and annual revenue of $515-525 million (midpoint $520M vs $519.5M estimate). Sometimes beating expectations is the perfect recipe for investor satisfaction.

Lennar (LEN ⬆️ 2.5%): The homebuilder rose despite mixed Q2 results, as revenue topped expectations while earnings missed at $1.90 vs $1.94 expected on $8.4 billion revenue. Average home sales price fell 9% to $389,000, but management's focus on volume, pace, and operational efficiency amid softening conditions had investors returning for more. Q3 guidance for 22,000-23,000 home deliveries and new orders provides visibility despite lower pricing expectations.

AMD (⬆️ 0.4% premarket): The chipmaker continues Monday's 8.8% surge momentum - its largest daily gain since April 9's nearly 24% jump. Analysts remain bullish on the company's new AI chips, the Instinct MI350 series, designed to compete with market leader Nvidia. When you're cooking up Nvidia competition, investors always want a taste.

Nvidia (NVDA ⬆️ 0.3% premarket): Even the AI chip king maintains modest gains, extending Monday's 1.9% advance as the AI infrastructure story continues attracting investment appetite despite geopolitical uncertainty.

Sunrun (RUN ⬇️ 27%): Residential solar leader getting burned by subsidy elimination fears

Enphase Energy (ENPH ⬇️ 16%): Solar inverter specialist suffering from policy uncertainty

First Solar (FSLR ⬇️ 9%): Utility-scale solar manufacturer feeling the heat

SolarEdge (⬇️ 19%): Power optimizer company getting scorched by credit concerns

Array Technologies (⬇️ 9%): Solar tracker maker tracking downward on policy fears, The Solar Energy Industries Association warned the bill could severely undermine the domestic solar market, while hydro, nuclear, and geothermal get extended incentives through 2036. Sometimes, policy changes can instantly spoil an entire sector's appetite.

Eli Lilly (⬇️ 0.3%): The pharmaceutical giant takes a small hit despite being the acquirer in the Verve Therapeutics deal, as $1.3 billion acquisition costs always require some digestive adjustment for shareholders.

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ETF Gainers:

• Volatility Shares Trust XRP 2X ETF (⬆️ 20.12%): Ripple bulls getting crypto satisfaction with 78.8K volume
• Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (⬆️ 19.64%): Another XRP play feeding optimists with 607.4K volume
• GraniteShares 2x Long AMD ETF (⬆️ 17.73%): AMD leverage amplifying chip gains with massive 54.6M volume
• Direxion Daily AMD Bull 2X Shares (⬆️ 17.50%): Semiconductor appetite doubling down with 401.4K volume
• Leverage Shares 2X Long AMD ETF (⬆️ 17.47%): Third AMD leveraged play serving bulls with 273.9K volume

ETF Losers:

• GraniteShares 2x Short COIN ETF (⬇️ 15.26%): Coinbase pessimists getting their revenge with 3.3M volume
• 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (⬇️ 14.13%): Volatility appetite cooling with 15.6M volume
• ProShares UltraShort Ether ETF (⬇️ 10.65%): Ethereum bears feasting with 838.3K volume
• ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (⬇️ 10.47%): Fear factor fading with 22.7M volume
• Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SMCI ETF (⬇️ 9.87%): Super Micro shorts getting satisfaction with 2.8M volume

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🥡 Tourism Backlash Grips Barcelona: As protests erupt against spiraling rents and overcrowding, the Spanish government is clamping down on Airbnb listings, signaling a growing battle over the impact of tourism on local life—What does this mean for the future of tourism?

🥡 James Webb Telescope Ups Lunar Impact Odds: New observations of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 reveal a 4.3% chance it will hit the moon in December 2032, though Earth remains safe—What does this precision tracking mean for planetary defense?

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For more information and to verify the accuracy of the claims made in this email, please consult the following reliable sources:

• G7 expresses support for Israel, calls Iran a source of instability – Reuters
• New Zealand PM to discuss trade, tourism, security in first visit to China – Reuters
• US-UK trade deal to be completed ‘very soon’, says Starmer – Reuters
• Flights with evacuees from Israel arrive in Slovakia and Czech Republic – Reuters
• Israeli tank shelling kills 45 people awaiting aid trucks, Gaza ministry says – Reuters
• Taiwan seals Ukraine combat-tested drone software deal to help deter China – Reuters
• Seeking unity, G7 meets amid escalating Ukraine and Middle East conflicts – Reuters
• Pentagon chief says Trump still aiming for deal with Iran – Reuters
• Stock movers – Barron’s
• Biggest stock movers Tuesday: Solar stocks and more – Seeking Alpha
• S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones outlook – Seeking Alpha
• One way a prolonged Israel-Iran conflict could accelerate Fed rate cuts – Yahoo Finance
• Citi sees gold below $3,000 as gains capped – Yahoo Finance
• Indonesian coal industry risking tough export controls – Yahoo Finance
• Goldman Sachs says these 10 stocks are primed to shine – Yahoo Finance
• Häagen-Dazs, Starbucks mull new product collaborations in Asia – Yahoo Finance
• China’s oil demand to peak earlier than expected – Yahoo Finance
• Iron ore extends drop as demand weakens – Yahoo Finance
• World oil demand to keep growing through 2030, says IEA – Yahoo Finance
• Google and Scale AI partner on AI-powered fraud detection – Yahoo Finance

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