Keys to what's driving corn and wheat prices and what targets to keep an eye on. To view this email as a web page,
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We've shared our corn and wheat analysis below, with updates to be released this Friday - start your free trial today to get our latest fundamental and technical analysis for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, cattle, hogs and feed. Start free trial.
Analysis (from 5/20 Pro Farmer newsletter)
Corn: The corn market seems to be caught in a cycle of falling prices prompting previous buyers to cancel orders, which in turn causes further losses and fresh cancellations. Last week’s USDA Export Sales Report showed a net reduction of 339,000 metric tons (MT) of old-crop sales during the week prior, sparking a futures plunge before the market rebounded. New-crop prices are also under pressure from accelerated planting in most states and prospects for favorable short-term rainfall. North Dakota remains a wild card with corn plantings lagging badly and the final crop insurance planting date (May 25) looming. Extended rebounds should be sold. Wheat:
SRW — The comparative size of the SRW crop versus the HRW crop in particular is keeping prices for the former under pressure. Falling corn prices are also lowering the floor for wheat. Expect the HRW/SRW spread to remain historically wide through harvest.
HRW — HRW futures garnered little support from the Wheat Quality Council tour of Kansas HRW fields finding an average yield of 30 bu. per acre, because USDA’s initial estimate was 29 bu. per acre. Late-season rains could stabilize yield prospects for some of the crop but came too late for many areas. Still, expect harvest pressure.
HRS — North Dakota HRS plantings are lagging badly with the insurance deadline looming on May 31. Seeding of increased Canadian acres lags as well, but late-May conditions seem conducive to a surge. Nearby HRS futures have moved premium to HRW as the winter wheat harvest looms. We expect more of the same. | | |
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