Michigan’s primary election earlier this month showed that politics is not only about ideas and policy and money-raising and dealmaking. It’s about people and personality – and power and payback.
A couple big names – Levin and Meijer – went down to defeat. Another big name – Whitmer – was in the shadows. And the biggest name of all showed it’s a force to be reckoned with as we head for the Nov. 8 general election: Former President Donald Trump.
“I think this was very much a litmus test of Trump's hold on the Republican Party,” said Simon Schuster, a reporter on MLive’s politics team. That influence showed up prominently in two races, he says: The Republican primary for governor, and the 3rd Congressional District race near Grand Rapids.
In the former, Tudor Dixon surged to a huge win over four other GOP contenders for governor; in the latter, newcomer John Gibbs edged incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer by a slim margin. Trump threw his endorsement behind both eventual winners.
Schuster found it interesting that Dixon was polling close to her opponents throughout the campaign cycle – until Trump endorsed her on the eve of the election. She won by double-digit percentage points. And Trump’s role in the Meijer-Gibbs race … well, that was personal, Schuster notes.
“He wanted Meijer out of office, all because Meijer had voted for the former president's impeachment in the wake of the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol,” he said. “And the fact that (Trump) succeeded in that is really a testament in a big way to the hold that former President Trump still has on the Republican Party.”
The Meijer loss also highlighted an aspect of politics that some consider seamy: The ends justifying the means. Specifically, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poured $400,000 into ads that appeared to attack Gibbs, labeling him “too conservative” for west Michigan.
Truth is, the Democrats knew that label was a dog whistle that motivated Trump supporters to come out and vote for Gibbs. The Democrats think he is more beatable in the general election than Meijer.
“This ad, which wasn't hidden behind a front group, is really sort of the definition of a ‘gambit,’” Schuster said. “People identified with the intended effect here pretty quickly. And with the amount of money that was spent, it'd be hard to say that this didn't have some sort of effect on the final outcome of the election.”
So, our eyes turn to the general election and specifically, the marquee race: For the governor’s seat. Democratic incumbent Whitmer has been quiet for the better part of a year, following a period early in the COVID pandemic when she became a national avatar for social mandates and shutdowns. But outside the public eye, she has been busy doing a couple things: Raising money and following through very visibly on an iconic campaign pledge.
“In 2018, you really saw a masterful campaign and her ability to pivot to the center and stick to a message and hammer it – ‘fix the damn roads’ all the way into the governor's office. A lot of pollsters and consultants I've talked to note you see orange construction barrels everywhere,” Schuster said. “But I think that this year is going to have to be a lot more multifaceted for the governor.”
That is in part because Dixon already has been calling Whitmer “the shutdown queen,” which signals the GOP is going to focus on the polarizing effects of Whitmer’s policies in the thick of the public health crisis.
“I'm really interested in how (Whitmer) has transformed and what she looks like as a candidate in 2022 versus 2018,” Schuster said. “Because there's marked changes and I think they're worth informing readers about.”
How Whitmer campaigns, and how Michigan voters react, will be fascinating to observe, chronicle and analyze. The election is on Nov. 8 – but it really began when the polls closed on Aug. 2.
🎧 In this episode, John Hiner and Eric Hultgren talk with Simon Schuster about what just happened in the 2022 Michigan midterm election. Listen here.
###
John Hiner is the vice president of content for MLive Media Group. If you have questions you’d like him to answer, or topics to explore, share your thoughts at [email protected].
