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Tuesday, June 24, 2025
A nightmare season for the Diamondbacks got even worse Monday. Josh Naylor left Monday's game with a shoulder injury, while Eugenio Suarez left with a hand injury, and that wasn't even the bad news for the Diamondbacks. 
The bad news is that Corbin Carroll has a chip fracture in his left wrist and will be going on the IL. How long he will be going on the IL for hasn't been announced, and this specific injury doesn't have a ton of precedent to point to that I could find. But there is one high-profile example, and it's not going to make you feel good: Aaron Judge suffered a chip fracture in his right wrist back in 2018, and he missed 49 days while recovering – and he hit just .220/.333/.341 after returning, with one homer in 51 plate appearances. 
Of course, that's just a sample of one. It doesn't mean Carroll will miss the same amount of time or struggle in exactly the same way. But the timetable probably won't look much different than that, at least -- according to Baseball Prospectus' Recovery Dashboard tool, hitters miss an average of 60 days with fractured wrists, with a median timetable of 50 days. Maybe Carroll's won't be that bad, but you should be preparing for a lengthy absence. 
Which means it's time to look for some replacement options. We talked about a bunch on Monday's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, and we'll kick off today's newsletter with nine more names to know, covering the gamut from "available in just shallower leagues" to "available pretty much everywhere." None of them will be a one-to-one replacement for Carroll, but if you're looking to replace a difference maker, these nine could have upside worth chasing:
  • Cam Smith, Astros (72%) – The hope here is Smith is starting to live up to all of that upside, though he followed up a seven-hits-in-two-games stretch by going 2 for 16 over his next four, so it hasn't quite locked in yet. But he's a high-upside play. 
  • Joshua Lowe, Rays (71%) – The Rays have played nine games against lefty starters since Lowe came back from his injury, and he has started five of them. So, not quite every day, which is always the concern here. He also hasn't quite gotten going, but there is obviously plenty of upside here – he had 20 homers and 32 steals in 2023. 
  • Addison Barger, Blue Jays (65%) – Barger is the hot hand play, with an OPS north of .850 since May 1. And he has the underlying numbers to back it up, if not the track record. There are also some platoon concerns here, but he has started four of seven against lefties this month. 
  • Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox (63%) – Earlier in the season, Rafaela had excellent underlying numbers and mediocre production. Now he's actually hot with five homers and a .394 OPS in the month of June and mediocre .326 expected wOBA. Temper expectations, in other words, but give him a look if you want some speed and pop. 
  • Jurickson Profar, Braves (59%) – This one won't be an immediate help, though if you play in a league with weekly lineup locks, it won't matter much. Profar is suspended until July 2, but he'll be back at the top of the Braves lineup by then, and if he's anything like the 2024 version of himself, that's a must-start player in all formats. 
  • Chandler Simpson , OF, Rays (47%) – Simpson is being recalled from Triple-A Tuesday, and he continues to have a very Fantasy-friendly skill set – remember, he hit .285 with 19 steals in 35 games before his demotion. The question is whether his defense will ever be good enough to keep him in the lineup. It's a bet worth making, because a .285 average isn't the ceiling for him. Not even close. 
  • Tyler O'Neill, Orioles (45%) – O'Neill is, as he often is, dealing with an injury. But he's back on his rehab assignment and still has plenty of upside if he can ever get and then remain healthy – remember, he hit 31 homers in just 113 games last season. 
  • Parker Meadows, Tigers (33%) – Meadows hasn't done much since coming off the IL, but the underlying data actually looks great – his .350 xwOBA would be a significant improvement over last season's, and his .260 xBA will play in any format. There's 20-20 upside if he gets going here. 
  • Chase DeLauter, Guardians (19%) – Let's toss one real long shot with real upside in here. DeLauter returned from hernia surgery about a month ago and has done what he has always done when healthy – raked. He is hitting .297/.418/.486 in 21 games at Triple-A and could be an option to boost the Guardians' pitiful right field situation. I think he's got a real chance of getting called up very soon. 
Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB
Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Diamondbacks (62%) – Here's a full list of pitchers with more 10-strikeout games than Rodriguez this season: Logan Webb, Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Cole Ragans. That's not quite a list of the five best pitchers in baseball, but it's pretty impressive company. Yes, I'm aware that his ERA for the season is now down to 5.40, and that his six shutout innings Monday came against the White Sox, and those are reasonable arguments for being skeptical of what Rodriguez has done. But his peripheral stats suggest there's been some bad luck there, as Rodriguez entered this start with a much more palatable 3.92 xERA. The highs have been high and the lows have been low, but I think Rodriguez is going to be more useful than not moving forward. 
Austin Hays, OF, Reds (48%) – Hays is working his way back from a foot injury and will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday, with the hope he'll be activated from the IL by this weekend. Hays has missed a lot of time so far, but he's been a perfect fit for Cincinnati's small ballpark, hitting .303/.346/.555 through 31 games. He isn't quite that good, but his .354 xwOBA is the best of his career, and his home park should continue to help. He should absolutely be on your list of Corbin Carroll replacements. 
Trevor Rogers, SP, Orioles (6%) – Rogers' three starts so far have confirmed one thing for me: He is still capable of being a competent MLB pitcher. That's not nothing! At the beginning of the season, I'm not sure anyone would have bet on that being the case. But here he sits with a 1.62 ERA and 0.78 WHIP through his first 16.2 innings of work this season. He obviously isn't that good, but Rogers has rediscovered most of his lost velocity, and his changeup has looked pretty good so far, too.
I just don't really buy that he's much more than competent. He had just four strikeouts in his eight innings of work Monday against the Rangers, with just eight swinging strikes on 101 pitches. Competent-but-unspectacular pitchers have great starts all of the time, and they can even be useful for Fantasy. I just don't think Rogers is likely to really be much more than that. 
Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pirates (7%) – Gonzales might just be tapping into some of the upside that made him a top-10 pick back in 2020. I'm not saying he's going to be a star or anything, but he has chopped another few points off his strikeout rate (it's down to 16.3%, a legitimately good mark!) without sacrificing anything in the way of contact quality. He had two doubles as part of a five-hit game Monday, and his quality of contact metrics are the best they've ever been. As a 2B in a deeper league or a middle infield option, Gonzales looks pretty solid. One thing that could make him even more interesting is if he turned his 89th percentile sprint speed into actual steals, as he has unsuccessfully attempted just one in 19 games. 
Dylan Lee, RP, Braves (10%) – Lee might just be the Braves closer now. It's impossible to say that with any degree of confidence, of course, as Monday was their first save since May 16, but it came in awfully impressive circumstances: With Raisel Iglesias allowing consecutive two-out singles in the eighth inning, Lee came in to face Juan Soto to get out of the inning, and he then retired the side in order in the ninth for his second save. There haven't been many opportunities lately, but the Braves still clearly don't trust Iglesias as a shutdown bullpen arm, while Lee has been exactly that, sporting a 1.77 ERA with better than a strikeout per inning and good control. And he had a 2.11 ERA last season, so it might not be a fluke. I expect Iglesias to get back the ninth inning role at some point, but Lee could factor in until then. 
Monday's standouts
Elly De La Cruz , SS, Reds – I usually stick hitters at the bottom of the standouts when I write about them, but De La Cruz's recent run is worth focusing on. He went 3 for 4 with a homer and a triple Monday, pushing his line in the month of June to .333/.422/.750 with seven homers. We've seen stretches like this from De La Cruz, who has been a notoriously streaky hitter in his MLB career, and I suspect this will go down as another hot streak. But I'm highlighting this because his strikeout rate is down to 18% in 20 June games, the lowest of any 20-game stretch in his career; his previous low was 20% last August and into early September. Extend it to his past 25 games, and it's down to 16% – his previous low over a 25-game stretch is 23%. What if writing this off as just another hot streak is the wrong move? What if this is just what it looks like when De La Cruz finally figures it out?
Bailey Ober, Twins vs. SEA: 7 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – That's one of the stranger lines you'll ever see, but the bottom line is that it's another terrible disappointing showing from Ober, who has now allowed seven runs in two of his past four starts, with an overall 8.51 ERA in that stretch. He's been dealing with a hip injury and has talked about some mechanical issues, but Ober is now up to a 4.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, with the worst peripheral and expected stats of his career. I don't think Ober is this bad, but the hip issue may make it tougher for him to get right, and I wonder if he would already be on the IL if not for the Twins rotation issues. I'd prefer not to drop Ober, but if you need the roster spot, I can't really argue against it, either. 
Nick Lodolo, Reds vs. NYY: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Weird start. Lodolo's stuff was decent, and he generated 11 whiffs on 94 pitches to go along with the strong strikeout rate, but he was also probably lucky the Yankees didn't do more damage against him – he had nine hard hits allowed and a 92.6 mph average exit velocity against. Lodolo got off to a solid start to the season, but he's been struggling for the better part of two months, with a 4.56 ERA since the start of May. I fear you may have missed your sell-high window here. 
Matthew Liberatore, Cardinals vs. CHC: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Liberatore has struggled with fatigue lately, but this was another nice bounce-back, giving him two quality starts in a row. But the problem is, he already surpassed last year's innings total with this start, and I just worry things are going to keep getting worse for him, even if the bottom never totally falls out. The strikeouts have already started to fade, leaving Liberatore even more reliant on his suddenly excellent control for success. Maybe he can keep it up, but in the long run, I'm betting against it. 
Ben Brown, Cubs @STL: 5 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – With Shota Imanaga on his way back from a hamstring injury, Brown might have been pitching for his rotation spot in this one. And if he was, he probably lost that competition with this one. There have been flashes there for him, but his limited repertoire just hasn't let him find any kind of consistent success. Maybe he goes to the bullpen, where his dominant curveball can play up. Or maybe he goes back to Triple-A to try to work on finding that elusive third pitch. Whatever the case may be, I don't think Brown's next appearance is going to come in the Cubs rotation. And I don't think he really needs to be rostered in most Fantasy leagues. 
Shane Smith , White Sox vs. ARI: 2 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Smith has had some bright spots, but he hasn't quite looked like a finished product even when things were going well – his command was often shaky, and his velocity would sometimes slip as he got deeper into his starts. That wasn't an issue in this one, of course, because he was chased after just two innings. Smith has a 5.81 ERA over the past six starts, and his command has only gotten worse. I think Smith can be a useful Fantasy pitcher, but he's certainly not enough of a sure thing to be worth holding when things aren't going well. It's fine to view him as a streamer these days. 
News and notes
Kenley Jansen entered into Monday's game in a non-save situation, threw four pitches, and left with a trainer. His velocity was down significantly, which is obviously concerning. If he has to miss time, I'd bet on Reid Detmers to get the next save chance for the Angels; he got off to a rocky start to the season but has 27 strikeouts in his past 18 innings of work with just one earned run allowed. He's worth a speculative add. 
Brian Snitker said that the Braves fully anticipate Chris Sale will pitch again this season, but they won't have a timetable until they see how Sale's left rib cage heals. You just have to hold him for as long as it takes. 
Shota Imanaga will rejoin the Cubs this Thursday to face the Cardinals. He got up to 72 pitches in his final rehab outing, so while he may not be fully stretched out, I don't think he'll be limited for more than one start.
Tyler Glasnow tossed two scoreless innings in his rehab start at Triple-A on Sunday. He got up to 48 pitches, so we're probably still looking at multiple more starts before he's an option for the Dodgers as he works his way back from a shoulder injury. 
Eugenio Suarez left after getting hit by a pitch in his right hand. Thankfully, X-rays came back negative, so hopefully it's not more than a short-term absence. 
Josh Naylor was removed from Monday's game due to right shoulder discomfort. He'll be re-evaluated on Tuesday, which feels more concerning than Suarez's issue. 
Keibert Ruiz left Monday night after getting struck by a foul ball in the dugout.
Jordan Westburg has missed two straight with a sprained left index finger but could return as soon as Tuesday.
Matthew Boyd has been cleared to make his next start Wednesday. He was removed from his last outing after being hit by a comebacker in his left shoulder.
Brandon Woodruff completed a 60-pitch sim game Monday and will go on a rehab assignment later this week. He is working his way back from shoulder surgery, and while I hope I'm wrong, my expectations are pretty low for him at this point. He is still 84% rostered, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me. 
Spencer Arrighetti could throw a bullpen on Tuesday. He's working his way back from a fractured right thumb and is almost certainly looking at a second-half return at this point. 
The Giants optioned Tyler Fitzgerald to Triple-A. They'll likely go with Brett Wisely and Christian Koss in the meantime, with Casey Schmitt looking likely to shift to second base when Matt Chapman is healthy. 
The Reds reinstated Jeimer Candelario and designated him for assignment.
 
 
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