| | | | Wednesday, September 11, 2024 | | I want to say I don't know what to expect from Jacob deGrom. When he makes his season debut Friday, he'll do so as a 36-year-old coming back from his second Tommy John surgery, and that carries a lot of inherent uncertainty with it. Just ask Walker Buehler, who has been an outright disaster in his comeback from his own second Tommy John surgery. | | But let's be real. We know exactly what to expect from Jacob deGrom: Utter dominance. | | Is that an absolute certainty? Would I bet my life on it? Well, I guess I wouldn't go that far, but … Yeah, I'm expecting deGrom to go out there and pitch like one of the best pitchers in baseball. That's what he's been for the better part of a decade, and I saw no reason to doubt he can still be that during his minor-league rehab assignment, where he struck out 15 over 10.2 innings where he more or less looked like himself. | | | | We have Statcast data for deGrom's rehab assignment when he was at Triple-A, and he was averaging 98.2 mph with his four-seamer and had a 43% whiff rate on his slider and a 50% whiff rate on his changeup – all in small samples, of course, as he threw just 67 pitches total. But still, it was enough to convince me that deGrom is still deGrom. | | Now, the next question is, "How excited should we be for Fantasy?" And, I'll grant, that's one I have less certainty of. deGrom maxed out at four innings and 49 pitches in his rehab assignment, and with the Rangers more or less playing for 2025 at this point, I do expect them to be pretty cautious with him. I'd be pretty shocked if we saw six innings from deGrom in his first start back in the majors in 17 months. And that makes it pretty tough to trust him for Fantasy purposes. | | But, what's that you say? He's facing the Mariners? The Mariners, who still have the highest strikeout rate of any non-COVID-shortened season team in MLB history? Well, okay then, yeah, I'm probably starting deGrom in his first start back. Maybe not in all H2H points leagues – getting a win and a quality start is a lot more important in that format – but in Roto? Yeah, I'd expect him to be very helpful in the ratio stats and strikeouts, so I'll throw him out there. | | Maybe it won't work out. There are no certainties in this life. But there aren't many more certainties in Fantasy Baseball, especially with starting pitching, and especially in September. So, yeah, I'll roll the dice with the greatest pitcher of the past decade in his first start back. Let's do it. | | | | Wednesday's waiver targets | | | | Keider Montero, SP, Tigers (12%) – I always feel weird about situations where a player accomplishes something genuinely noteworthy and impressive, and my reaction for Fantasy is … to shrug. Montero tossed a complete game shutout Tuesday, making him just the 16th player to do so this season, which ain't nothing. But when you look at the list of names, you see some real superstars, but you've also got some complete nonfactors like Tyler Phillips, Joey Estes, and Braxton Garrett, plus some decent, but not dominant guys like Gavin Stone , Luis Severino, and Kevin Gausman . Which is all to say, yes, this was an impressive performance from Montero, but I'm not sure it should radically alter your view of him. He's not entirely without merit – his slider and curveball both seem like pretty decent pitches, and both generated a bunch of swings and misses and weak contact in this one. But if you're asking if I think Montero put himself in the "must-add" conversation for the stretch run with this one, no, I don't. | | Parker Meadows , OF, Tigers (28%) – Now, here's a player on the Tigers I do think is a difference maker for the stretch run. Meadows has been one since coming off the IL in early August, hitting .308 with four homers, 21 runs, 20 RBI, and five steals in 30 games. And, for those of you worried about him not playing every day, he has started 29 of 34 games in that stretch, so I'm not actually sure that's an issue anymore. The Tigers are giving him a chance to play every day, and he's taking advantage of it, to the point where I think he might actually be a viable option even in H2H points leagues right now. | | Albert Suarez, SP, Orioles (32%) – I'm not sure where this came from for Suarez, who has been decent at times this season, but rarely as a bat-misser. He generated 21 whiffs on 101 pitches against a tough Red Sox lineup, en route to an eight-strikeout quality start. He threw his curveball and changeup about twice as often as usual, and maybe that was just enough to let everything else in his arsenal play up. Suarez now has a 2.43 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his past seven starts, albeit with much less than a strikeout per inning, so I'm not totally buying in. On the other hand, he might be a two-start pitcher in Week 27, with matchups on the way against the Giants and Tigers, which should make him a viable streamer. | | Rhett Lowder, SP, Reds (42%) – The book on Lowder when he came up from the minors was that, while he was a recent first-round pick and pretty highly touted prospect, it was more in a "high-floor, low-ceiling" kind of way. Pitchers are always tough to classify in that manner because we're never as good at projecting either floor or ceiling as we think we are, but in Lowder's case, it looks bang on. He has a 0.59 ERA over his first three career starts, however with just a 1.24 WHIP and 7.0 K/9, which is pretty uninspiring. He does get a decent matchup against the Pirates next week, so I'm fine starting him for that one in deeper leagues, at least. | | Matt Wallner, OF, Twins () – I don't know if it's because people were burned by him earlier in the year, but Wallner's low roster rate just doesn't make much sense to me. Sure, his limitations are obvious, but the thing is, they haven't been holding him back lately; Wallner is hitting .290 with an OPS north of 1.000 over his past 50 games despite a 34% strikeout rate. He probably can't keep that up forever, but his quality of contact numbers are massive (94.6 mph average exit velocity, 21% barrel rate), which indicates that it isn't just a fluke. Wallner will sit against some lefties, but he has started 45 of 55 games since coming back from Triple-A, so even that isn't that big of an impediment. If it wasn't for Meadows, I'd say Wallner might be the most under-rostered player in Fantasy right now. | | | | News and Notes | | Reynaldo Lopez left Tuesday's start due to right shoulder tightness. His velocity was way down, over 3 mph on his fastball, and while he hasn't been ruled out for the season or anything, I'd be surprised if we got much from Lopez. He's thrown more innings than any season since 2019 and has now had elbow and shoulder injuries this summer. It's been a tremendous season, but this might be too much to overcome this late. | | Luis Castillo was placed on the IL with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. That's probably the end of his regular season, at least. | | Tyler Glasnow felt good after his bullpen Tuesday and will face hitters in a simulated game over the weekend. If all goes well, he could be back in the rotation next week, albeit likely on a limited basis as the Dodgers simply try to get him right for the playoffs. | | Kyle Schwarber left Tuesday's game with left elbow discomfort. We'll keep a close eye on this one because Schwarber is obviously a must-start player when healthy. | | Jacob deGrom will make his season debut Friday against the Mariners. Max Scherzer will make his return Saturday against the Mariners. I am significantly less interested in starting Scherzer than deGrom at this point. | | Teoscar Hernandez was out Tuesday and has now missed four straight after fouling a ball off his ankle last Friday. | | Connor Norby was scratched from the lineup for an unknown reason. | | Ben Joyce was placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. I guess Hunter Strickland or Roansy Contreras would be next up for saves, but I'd prefer not to have to rely on either on a bad team. | | Ben Lively left his start early after getting hit in the leg by a comebacker. | | Osvaldo Bido was placed on the IL with right wrist flexor tendinitis. Brado Basso was recalled and is a name to watch in deeper leagues. | | Robbie Ray is scheduled to throw 50-60 pitches in a bullpen Wednesday. He's on the IL with a hamstring strain but could be back next week if all goes well, perhaps. | | Tylor Megill is sticking in the Mets' rotation for at least one more start following his great outing on Monday. | | Anthony Rendon was placed on the IL with a left oblique strain, retroactive to Sunday. | | Tuesday's standouts | | Pablo Lopez, Twins vs. LAA: 7 IP, 8 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Remember this next summer, when you're freaking out about some high-ranked pitcher with good peripherals who is nonetheless struggling to keep runs off the board: Pablo Lopez has a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his past 14 starts. The absolute worst thing you can do in that scenario is sell low on a struggling star with strong underlying skills because you're doubling up on the pain – you're locking in the poor performances and trading them for a less talented player. It's usually a mistake. | | Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers vs. CHC: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – For a first start back from the IL from a shoulder injury, that went about as well as you could have hoped. I'm not sure Yamamoto is a must-start Fantasy option coming off a 59-pitch outing, because I'd be surprised if he threw more than 75 or so the next time out. But that should be enough for at least five innings if Yamamoto pitches well, and that should give him a decent chance for a win, plus a bunch of strikeouts. And with two starts, against the Rockies (away from Coors) and the Braves, I'm probably just starting him in all leagues next week. | | Seth Lugo, Royals @NYY: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – I'll be honest, I did think Lugo's drop-off in the second half would be more dramatic, and before his most recent three starts, it was. But all of a sudden, he has a 3.82 ERA since the All-Star break – not the dominant numbers he was putting up earlier in the year, but pretty solid for a guy who pitches deep into games as consistently as Lugo does. He's not an ace, but I think Lugo has established himself as a very good starting pitcher for 2025. | | Spencer Arrighetti, Astros vs. OAK: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I feel like there might be some frustration toward Arrighetti, whose two worst starts lately have come when he had the highest expectations on him. That was less than ideal, but even still, he has a 3.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his past 11 starts, with 78 strikeouts and 62.2 innings pitched. I think he's clearly still a high-variance pitcher, but he is one I'm pretty comfortable starting next week against the Angels. | | Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. NYM: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Bassitt is an enigma, and I can't say I'm particularly interested in drafting him for 2025 – his 1.41 WHIP for the season is especially harmful, even if the strikeout and ERA numbers are pretty solid. However, I'm probably just keeping him in my lineup moving forward, especially for a two-start week with the Rangers and Rays on the way next week. | | Yu Darvish, Padres @SEA: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – The hope here is now that Darvish has settled in from his first two starts off the IL, he'll get a bit more leash moving forward. He came back without a rehab assignment, so the fact that he's been limited to 63 pitches in each of his first two starts back shouldn't be too big of a red flag. He has the Astros and White Sox on the way for a two-start week next week, so I'm going to start him for that one, at least. | | Ranger Suarez, Phillies vs. TB: 5.1 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – In four starts since coming off the IL, Suarez has a 4.19 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 19.1 innings of work. And I don't want to be too dismissive and just say that's what we should expect from him forevermore, because obviously, he pitched much better than that early in the season, and it's possible he just isn't 100% right after that back injury. But Suarez's career has been defined by inconsistency as much as anything, and those fleeting glimpses of stardom have never quite stuck. Clearly, they haven't here, though he's a decent start with the Brewers and Mets on the schedule next week. | | Kutter Crawford, Red Sox vs. BAL: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I'll be honest: I thought Crawford's flyball-heavy approach was doomed when the weather started heating up. And it was certainly a problem in August, with six homers allowed in 31.1 innings leading to a 6.32 ERA. But he finished the month up with a quality start and has followed that up with two more to open September, so maybe all hope isn't lost. He's not a star, by any means, but Crawford is solid, at least, and I wasn't sure we could say that coming into the year. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals vs. ATL: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Sigh. I'll admit, I was buying back in. Gore had been terrific in his previous three starts, as he had rediscovered his fastball and was back to generating a bunch of whiffs. Well, his velocity regressed in this one, and his fastball got absolutely crushed, with a 93.4 mph average exit velocity on eight balls in play. I think Gore can still be a good pitcher, but if the margin for error is around 1 mph of fastball velocity, unfortunately, I don't know how you could really trust him at this point. I want to believe in him, but he has never made it easy, has he? | | David Peterson, Mets @TOR: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – I've never had much faith in Peterson, so his stumble Tuesday is a lot easier to stomach. He got hot and generated an unusual amount of whiffs with his fastball, but it just never felt particularly sustainable to me. Peterson is likely a two-start pitcher for next week, and the first of them is against a very beatable Nationals lineup. But he has the Phillies on the schedule after that, and I just don't think I would want my championship hopes riding on that. | | | | | | | | USL | | WNBA | Birmingham Legion FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies face off in a USL matchup tonight at 8 PM ET on CBS Sports Network!
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