| | | | Thursday, August 22, 2024 | | On the Fantasy Baseball Today Podcast, we like to fire up a segment every week or so called the "Drop-O-Meter," which has a fairly straightforward, obvious goal: To give actionable takes about how droppable a given player is. Simple enough. | | Before we get to the rest of Wednesday's action, I've got four starting pitchers I want to throw on the Drop-O-Meter, with a 1 representing "No way am I dropping them" and a 10 meaning, "Yeah, set them free." | | We'll start with one guy we thought might be an ace for much of the season: | | Garrett Crochet, White Sox (87%) – 10 on the Drop-O-Meter | | It was, at one point, one of the best stories in baseball, and it would be a shame to let the bad feelings of Crochet's limited usage here in the second half wreck that. I can't wait to draft him next season, because I genuinely believe he is one of the most talented pitchers in the majors right now – I think I'll rank him in the SP15-20 range for 2025. But Crochet hasn't given us more than four innings in a start since June, and he's been under 60 pitches in each of his last two. There's just no path for even in-start upside at this point. | | Luis Gil, Yankees (100%) – 5 | | Gil's injury isn't considered too serious, but he was placed on the IL after leaving Monday's start with a back issue, which means he's out until at least Sept. 5. So this one really depends on your league context: If you're in a win-or-go-home situation over the next 15 days and you absolutely need the roster spot, dropping Gil might be advisable – especially because I could see the Yankees using this as an excuse to limit his innings when he does return in September. I probably wouldn't do it in a Roto league, but it's worth considering otherwise. | | | | Jordan Montgomery, Diamondbacks (66%) – 10 | | Montgomery has shown some flashes of his former self, but if he's going to give up six runs in 5.2 innings against the Marlins, like he did Wednesday, what's the point in waiting on him? It doesn't mean there won't be useful starts, but if you can't trust him against that matchup, who could you actually start him against and feel good about it? | | Matt Waldron, Padres (70%) – 9 | | Welp, it was fun while it lasted. Waldron had an ERA as low as 3.59 in mid-July, but things have fallen apart for the knuckleballer since, hitting a new low with a 10-run outing Wednesday that drove his ERA to 4.79 for the season. I like to say knuckleball pitchers are the ultimate random number generators, so if he got the feel back for his pitch and turned it around down the stretch, that really wouldn't be a surprise. But "randomness" works both ways, and if he had an ERA north of 6.00 the rest of the way, I would be equally unsurprised. It feels like the league has figured out his one weird trick, though. | | The problem with all of these, of course, is that there just haven't been many pitchers emerging on the waiver wire lately, and you should never drop a player until you have a better option. And, as you'll see in the rest of today's newsletter, there aren't many options on the wire worth considering these days: | | | | Thursday's waiver targets | | | | Parker Meadows, OF, Tigers (23%) – Meadows entered the season with a bit of hype, and then totally flamed out, earning a trip back to Triple-A by May 6, with an OPS below .450. Then he went down to Triple-A and was terrific, played well for three games, and then went on the IL for about a month. However, he's been red hot since coming back from the IL and is now hitting .354 with 10 extra-base hits and six steals in 17 games since his return from Triple-A. He has started 13 of 16 games since his return from the IL, too, so I don't think there are really any playing time concerns here. Meadows might just be a must-roster player in all categories leagues. | | Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox (75%) – I've written about Yoshida a bunch over the past few weeks, so would you all do me a favor and add him in the remaining leagues where he's available so I don't have to do it anymore? He had an .898 OPS in the month of July and has been even better so far in August, hitting .353/.423/.588 after going 2 for 4 with a steal Wednesday. He's not as good as he has looked over the past couple of months, but Yoshida is a strong hitter who can really make an impact when he's locked in like this. Ride it as long as it lasts. | | Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Rockies (37%) – It's been a roller coaster ride for Rodgers, whose monthly OPS over the past three has gone from .990 to .604 to, now, 1.009 during August. He went 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI Wednesday, and has three homers in 17 games in the month. His track record suggests that Rodgers won't be able to keep this up, but the good news is, he's got seven games at Coors Field next week, so he should be pretty good for that one, at least – he has an .867 OPS at home this season. | | | | Mitch Spence, SP, Athletics (8%) – Well, that was pretty interesting. Spence hasn't given us many reasons to be excited about him before this, but on Wednesday night, he went out and struck out 10 in seven innings against the Rays, while generating 15 swinging strikes. Of course, he also gave up four earned runs in those seven innings, so I don't think you need to rush out and add him in all formats. But he made his slider his most used pitch, and that's probably not a bad idea since it's been his best pitch this season. In deeper leagues, I'm keeping an eye on Spence's next start against Cincinnati to see how he follows up on this one. | | Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays (22%) – It's been a bit of an up-and-down rookie season for Horwitz, but he's been pretty useful for long stretches, and it looks like he's in one again. He homered for the second game in a row Wednesday, and went 2 for 3 with a couple of walks and a double in addition to the homer, pushing his August OPS to .814. He's done a good job getting on base all season and looks like a solid option in either OBP or points leagues. | | Will Warren, SP, Yankees (5%) – With Gil going on the IL, it looks like Will Warren is going to get a few turns in the Yankees rotation, and while his overall production this season leaves an awful lot to be desired, I think he's still worth a look in deeper leagues. For one thing, his most recent start last week at the MLB level was his best yet, with five strikeouts over five innings while allowing two runs and generating 11 swinging strikes on 94 pitches. Now, we're still talking about someone with a 6.11 ERA in Triple-A, so I'm not expecting him to just hit the majors and dominate. But he remains a very good strikeout pitcher (27% in Triple-A) and could catch fire with Gil out. | | Jhonkensy Noel, 1B, Guardians (21%) – The strikeouts are a problem, but Noel looks like he needs to be in the Guardians lineup pretty regularly moving forward. He's up to a .915 line for the season after he hit his 10th homer of the season Wednesday, and all of a sudden he has started eight of the past 10 games for the Guardians. Noel now has 29 homers in 102 games between Triple-A and the majors this season, and he might just be forcing the Guardians to keep him as a bigger part of their plans, especially as much of the rest of the lineup has started to slow down. If you need power on the wire, give Noel a look. | | News and Notes | | Luis Gil was placed on the IL with a lower back strain Wednesday. Aaron Boone said the injury is considered minor, and the Yankees are hopeful Gil can return when first eligible on September 5. Will Warren was recalled to take Gil's spot in the rotation for now. | | Clarke Schmidt will start his rehab assignment this Friday and could be back before Gil at this point. He's 57% rostered and was having a breakout season, so I think he's well worth stashing – potentially even a higher priority than Gil at this point. | | Apparently, Tyler Glasnow has yet to begin playing catch. Dave Roberts added that Glasnow likely won't be activated when he's first eligible on August 31. | | Jazz Chisholm took batting practice on the field Wednesday, his first time swinging a bat since being diagnosed with a sprained left elbow. | | Alex Bregman returned to the Astros lineup as the DH. He went 1-4 with his 20th homer, a good sign that this injury hopefully won't limit him too much. | | Nolan Gorman was optioned to Triple-A. He was batting just .203 with a 38% K rate and a .671 OPS for the season despite a few positive stretches. He can be dropped in pretty much all leagues, even if I suspect we'll see him again when rosters expand this September. | | Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw a simulated game Wednesday, his second sim game since landing on the IL. He's out until September, but seems to be recovering from his shoulder injury well and should pitch again at some point this season. | | Max Scherzer will make a rehab start at Double-A on Friday and is on track to return early next week. My expectations remain pretty low at this point, but maybe he'll surprise me. | | Jared Jones dominated his latest rehab start, striking out 10 over five scoreless innings at Triple-A Tuesday. He should be back in the majors sometime next week, I would think. | | Victor Vodnik was placed on the IL with right bicep inflammation. Angel Chivilli picked up the save on Tuesday, and I'm assuming he's ahead of Tyler Kinley in the pecking order right now. | | Jorge Soler has been running the bases and remains on track to return this weekend. | | Camilo Doval is expected to be recalled during the Giants' upcoming road trip. I think they probably want him to get back to the closer role, so it'll be interesting to see how they deploy him. I wouldn't drop Ryan Walker just yet, but I also think Doval remains worth stashing. | | Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Ryne Nelson is tentatively scheduled to start Friday against the Red Sox. He's been pretty solid recently and probably has a better case to remain in the rotation than Jordan Montgomery if it's just about their merits as a pitcher right now. | | Anthony Rizzo is closing in on a rehab assignment. He's been out since mid-June with a fractured right forearm. | | One of the best of this generation, Joey Votto officially announced his retirement. He's one of my absolute favorite players ever, an absolute wizard at the plate with one of the best eyes I've ever seen. And he is also, by pretty much all accounts, one of the best and most interesting people in the game. He's going into the Hall of Fame someday, and it'll be well deserved. | | Wednesday's Standouts | | Logan Gilbert, Mariners @LAD: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – I'm filing this one under " Dodgers Happen." Gilbert continues to lead with his slider in this one, throwing it 44% of the time, and based on what happened when he threw his other pitchers, maybe he should have leaned on it even more heavily; he generated nine of his 15 swinging strikes with the pitch while allowing eight balls in play with an 83.4 mph average exit velocity, compared to a 95.6 mph average exit velocity on the other pitches. Gilbert still has a 2.63 ERA in the month of August, and a 3.04 mark for the season, so I can't say I'm particularly worried here. | | Logan Webb, Giants vs. CHW: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Webb's sinker is back in fine form, and that seems to be the key. The whiff rate was below 20% for the first few months of the season, right when Webb's ERA was at its most inflated. But he got that whiff rate up to 22.5% in July, and it's been north of 30% in August, and it's been his best month of the season. Start him with confidence moving forward. | | Max Fried, Braves vs. PHI: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – This is the right time to run into the Phillies if you have to, and Fried turned in his best start since coming back from the IL earlier this month. He had been uncharacteristically wild in his previous three starts, walking 11 over 13.2 innings of work, so this was a good return to form. I remain a bit concerned about how trustworthy Fried will be down the stretch, but I'm probably just keeping him in my lineup moving forward and hoping for more like this. | | Justin Verlander, Astros vs. BOS: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I'll be honest: that went a lot better than I expected. Verlander's velocity was up a bit in his first start in two months and he generated six swinging strikes with his four-seamer among the 10 he garnered on just 76 pitches. Verlander has maintained the ability to limit damage on contact, and seeing him flash some strikeout upside in his return from the IL is a very good sign. He's not an ace anymore, but I'm probably starting him next week against a cold Phillies lineup. | | Sean Manaea, Mets vs. BAL: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Maybe it's time to start taking Manaea a bit more seriously? This was a really impressive performance against a very tough Orioles lineup, and he did it with both the strikeouts and a bunch of weak contact when the Orioles did put the ball in play. Manaea is leaning more on his four-seamer and especially sweeper, and the latter has clearly been his best pitch this season, sporting a .217 xwOBA and 41% whiff rate. I feel like Manaea has let us down so many times in the past that I'm wary of buying in – and his mediocre 4.13 xERA doesn't instill much confidence – but he's been good enough for long enough that it just doesn't make much sense to keep dismissing it. | | Andrew Heaney, Rangers vs. PIT: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – I actually think Heaney and Manaea are pretty similar, in that both are capable of very good starts and even longer stretches, but it never quite feels sustainable. If you remember, Heaney actually had a 2.72 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 49.2 innings from the beginning of June through the first start of the season half and then followed that up with a 6.66 ERA in his next five starts before this one. I guess that's just what separates the legitimately good pitchers from the also-rans – the consistency to keep it together for more than a few weeks. Heaney remains just a streamer, I think. | | Michael Lorenzen, Royals vs. LAA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – I think Lorenzen is just on the lower end of the same scale Heaney and Manaea are on. Even when things are going well, he is rarely all that valuable – he has a 2.01 ERA since joining the Royals but with just 16 strikeouts while finishing six innings just once in four tries. Against the right matchups, Lorenzen probably won't hurt you, but he's rarely someone I have much interest in starting, and I really don't have much interest in his next start against the Guardians. | | Mitchell Parker, Nationals vs. COL: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Parker got back on track with this one, which doesn't come as much of a surprise, given the opponent. The problem is, he was tagged for nine runs in three innings in his previous outing against the Phillies and has a 5.93 since the start of July, which makes it tough to get excited about this one against this matchup. Parker has had a pretty solid rookie season, but I just don't see a path to a ton of upside here unless he gets more comfortable throwing his legitimately very good splitter more frequently. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, he's just another streamer. | | A couple of bullpen notes … | | Orioles: Seranthony Dominguez got the 9th in a tie game against the Mets and he gave up a walk-off homer to Jesse Winker, the second walk-off homer Dominguez has given up this week. The problem is, Craig Kimbrel also pitched in this game in the eighth and gave up a solo homer of his own. I think the Orioles want Kimbrel to take the closer's role back at some point down the stretch, and the fact that Dominguez hasn't run away with the job himself makes that more likely. But for now, I think you probably want to avoid this situation if you can. | | Rays: Manuel Rodriguez got the save Wednesday against the Athletics, working a perfect ninth inning with a strikeout, which is bad news for Edwin Uceta, who got the first save with Pete Fairbanks out, right? Well, not exactly – Uceta pitched 1.1 innings to get that save Tuesday and had worked three of the previous four nights, so he just might not have been available Wednesday. The Rays rarely lean on just one ninth-inning option, so maybe Rodriguez and Uceta are in a committee? But I wouldn't just write off the possibility that Uceta is the closer here just because he didn't get the save Wednesday. Let's see what this weekend holds. | | | | | | | | |
|
|
