What we know about Latter-day Saint votes in Utah, Arizona
The competition for Latter-day Saint votes in Arizona in this week’s U.S. presidential election certainly appears justified now.
It likely will be some time before any kind of exit polling, if any will exist, provides direct information into the voting patterns of members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in what became one of the key states in the election. And clearly, Latino voters had a major impact on swinging Arizona to Joe Biden.
But one poll conducted shortly before the election included an oversample of church members in Arizona and provides clear insight into the kind of impact they might have had.
Y2 Analytics surveyed 216 church members in Arizona from Oct. 15-24 with a plus/minus rating of 7%. Early voting in Arizona began on Oct. 7, so the poll was in the field while voting was underway.
The poll found that 75% of church members Arizona reported voting for President Donald Trump in 2016 and that 76% said they would vote for him this time.
But while support for the president was steady, support rose significantly for his opponent.
Just 9% of Arizona Latter-day Saints said they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to the survey. Support for Biden doubled that figure.
So Trump’s visit to Arizona last week may have shored up his base and kept them in his camp. The same may be true of Utah Sen. Mike Lee’s appearance with the president.
Trump plainly did better in Utah, however.
“Some of those Latter-day Saints who abandoned Trump for third-party candidates last time came home to Trump in Utah, and others went to Biden,” Y2’s Quin Monson said of Tuesday’s results. “They sort of split” third-party candidate Evan McMullin’s 2016 votes, he added. |
|
The 2016 Utah vote looked like this: Trump 45.5% Clinton 27.5% McMullin 21.5%. The 2020 Utah returns, as of Wednesday afternoon looked like this: Trump 58% Biden 38% “Biden outperformed Clinton, I mean, that's very clear. That's clear both in Utah and Arizona,” Monson said.
“From the limited data available,” he added, “Trump doesn't seem to have done a lot better than he did in 2016 among Latter-day Saints in Arizona, but Biden does better than Clinton did. It’s not a big group, so it doesn't change things dramatically, but it does change things at the margin, and I think it adds up to significant pile of votes.”
Y2 Analytics estimated there are 200,000 Latter-day Saint voters in Arizona, so Biden’s additional 9 percentage points over Clinton may have been 18,000 votes in a state where Biden, according to results available Wednesday afternoon, leads by fewer than 100,000 votes. |
|
| Download the free Deseret News app for access to more news right from your pocket. |
|
|
| What I’m Reading ... My colleague Dennis Romboy wrote a new story on a figure I mentioned last week: “Meet the highest-ranking Latter-day Saint in the Trump administration.”
This article had an irresistible headline, despite the outdated moniker: “Ruthie’s introduces Portland to ‘Mormon cooking.’ Don’t knock it till you’ve tried it.”
In the latest Church News podcast, Sarah Weaver interviews the stake presidents who guided their flocks through the devastating wildfires in Chico, California, and Medford, Oregon.
The Ensign had an update on the new hymnbook being prepared by church leaders and a committee assigned to the project, according to LDS Living.
An NFL player named DK Metcalf displayed stunning speed when he shockingly sprinted the length of the field and caught from behind a player who had a big head start and was carrying an interception toward the end zone. Jayson Jenks creatively reported (paywall) on how fast Metcalf ran. He reached a max of 22.64 mph on the play, the second-fastest a player has run while making a tackle this year. Then Jenks asked a mathematician how fast Metcalf was. She determined that he ran the equivalent of 10.52 seconds in the 100 meters, faster than some of the runners at the 2019 World Championships. She also said someone running a five-minute mile pace would need a 37-yard head start to beat him in a 100-yard race.
One of my favorite movies is “The Hunt for Red October,” which cemented me as a huge fan of Sean Connery. I had loved his character in “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade,” too. I’ll never forget what an enjoyable surprise it was to see him pop up as King Richard at the end of “Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves.” It’s safe to say I loved his Scottish accent, too. So I was sad to see that he died Saturday at age 90. I enjoyed this short piece on Connery and the accompanying personal video from his “Red October” co-star, Alec Baldwin. |
|
| | | The ceremonial shovels used during the Taylorsville Temple groundbreaking included gold-colored metal tips and an imprint honoring the event and date. The event had been scheduled for Oct. 10 but was moved to Saturday, Oct. 31, 2020. |
|
| | | Mark Rupp watches as his daughter Hannah, 8, prepares to turn a shovelful of dirt during the groundbreaking ceremony that symbolized the start of construction for the Taylorsville Utah Temple on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2020. |
|
|
|
|
