Whatâs Going On Here?JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs kicked off earnings season with stronger-than-expected second-quarter results on Tuesday, setting the tone for their investment banking rivals to come. What Does This Mean?Both JPMorgan and Goldman saw their profits shoot past expectations, sure, but the real story could be found elsewhere. Revenue from their trading businesses was down versus the same time last year, although â as JPMorganâs CEO pointed out last month â that was all but inevitable when activity was so high this time last year. Dealmaking revenue, meanwhile, was firing on all cylinders: Goldmanâs segment â which advises businesses on stock market listings and company acquisitions â had its second-best ever quarter, while JPMorganâs did a brisk, expectation-beating business too. Why Should I Care?Zooming in: Big banks have divergent futures.
Itâs easy to lump big US banks together, but to understand why JPMorganâs share price has only risen 24% this year versus Goldmanâs 44%, itâs worth looking at where they differ. JPMorgan is widely seen as a trading powerhouse, particularly in currencies, commodities, and âfixed incomeâ (i.e. bonds). A post-pandemic recovery, then, isnât great for the bank, since thereâll be a lot less volatility to trade on. Goldman, on the other hand, is a deal factory. And since dealmakingâs on track for a record year â and since that momentum is expected to continue for at least a couple more â the bank should benefit in the long term.
The bigger picture: Europeâs banks are waiting in the wings.
JPMorgan also announced that itâd keep buying back its own shares, which shouldnât come as much of a surprise: US banks have been rewarding their investors ever since the Federal Reserve â which banned buybacks during the pandemic â gave them the go-ahead last month. Europeâs central bank isnât being quite so generous, but investors are hopeful that itâll let the regionâs banks loose later this year too. | 