| April 19, 2023 | | | | | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| | | | Observations & Insight | | |
Garry Jones' Career Is One New Market after Another NovaFori
JohnLothianNews.com
Garry Jones says his career has mirrored the evolution of the markets, from the days of open outcry, voice trading, faxed confirmations and more.
Jones was interviewed by John Lothian News at the FIA International Futures Conference in Boca Raton, FL for the History of Financial Futures video series.
Watch the video »
| | | | | | Lead Stories | | | The VIX is telling stock-market investors it's dangerous to bet on Fed rate cuts
William Watts - MarketWatch
Investors once again penciling in a pivot to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve aren't getting any backup from a closely watched gauge of expected stock-market volatility, one Wall Street analyst warned Wednesday.
The Cboe Volatility Index, commonly referred to by its ticker symbol, "VIX," closed Tuesday at 16.83, its lowest finish since Jan. 3, 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The options-based index measures expectations for S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days. It remains well below its long-term average of around 20.
/jlne.ws/3GY2s5D
There Are Strange Rumblings Under Earnings Season's Surface
Steven M. Sears - Barron's
The future is on trial.
It's so hard to decipher what is happening inside and outside of markets that earnings season has become an unusually high-stakes debate over what happens next in the economy.
The tense dynamic always exists, but there is little to no margin for error this time around. Investors are worried that stock valuations could decline if corporate earnings are worse than expected and analysts lower future estimates.
/jlne.ws/41lfDWj
Stocks Haven't Looked This Calm Since 2021
Eric Wallerstein - WSJ
It's one of the most keenly watched bank earnings seasons in years. Traders aren't springing into action.
Stock-market volatility, measured by the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is at its lowest since around the Nasdaq Composite's peak in November 2021.
/jlne.ws/3Af6liw
Barclays to Shut 21 ETNs a Year After 'Staggering' Note Blunder
Katherine Greifeld - Bloomberg
Barclays Plc is axing nearly half of its US-listed exchange-traded notes a year after revealing a paperwork error tied to its products that cost the bank hundreds of millions of dollars.
The UK-based lender announced Tuesday it will redeem 21 of about 50 ETNs in June. The $71 million iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (ticker JJC) is the largest of the notes being closed, which hold around $533 million assets in total.
/jlne.ws/3ou2n2R
Bank Failures Shook Markets, May Hit Growth, Credit: Goldman's Solomon
Theron Mohamed - Markets Insider
The banking debacle sent shockwaves through financial markets, and now threatens to curb lending and public fundraising, David Solomon has warned.
The Goldman Sachs CEO underlined the sweeping, historic fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. The bank failures sparked a flurry of credit-rating downgrades and hefty valuation declines in the financial sector, and spurred Swiss regulators to arrange an emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, he noted.
/jlne.ws/43NWOgc
| | | | | | Exchanges | | | Washington Carbon Allowance Market Posts Record Volumes and First Options Trade on Nodal Exchange
Nodal Exchange
Nodal Exchange and IncubEx are pleased to announce a record volume day and week in the Washington Carbon Allowance (WCA) market as well as the first WCA options trade. Nodal posted a record daily volume of 565 lots (equal to 565,000 WCAs) on April 13th and 815 WCA lots for the week representing 815,000 metric tons of greenhouse-gas emissions. Last week also marked a key milestone, as IVG Energy Ltd, a leading brokerage of environmental commodities and markets, brokered the first-ever WCA option trade on Nodal. The option trade was executed on WCA December-2023 $50.00 puts.
/jlne.ws/3GYeA6C
| | | | | | Strategy | | | How Recent VIX, SPX Moves Could Impact Options
Rocky White - Yahoo Finance
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been trudging higher recently. The index is now up about 7.5% over last month's low, and up 16% off the lows of last October. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures implied volatilities on SPX options and usually moves in the opposite direction as the index, closed below 17 for the first time since January of 2022.
Since 1993 (as far back as we have daily data on the VIX), the VIX averages a level of around 20 with a median of about 18. Options are pricing in less volatility than normal for the SPX. In the analysis below, I look at how the SPX and VIX behaved in the past on moves below 17 and how SPY options have performed over the past several years at various VIX levels.
/jlne.ws/41FmVnp
Low Volatility Could Strengthen Stocks' Rally: Strategas
Hardika Singh - WSJ
Declining stock volatility could be good news for returns.
Wall Street's fear gaugeâthe Cboe Volatility Indexâis trading below a historical median of 17.9 after falling for most of 2023. That is associated with an average 12-month S&P 500 return of about 9%, a Strategas note said, citing data going back to 1990.
/jlne.ws/3ovqD52
U.K. inflation shock sparks fear U.S. markets will get caught off guard again
Vivien Lou Chen - MarketWatch
Persistent double-digit inflation in the U.K. is raising fresh questions in U.S. markets about whether traders and investors are once again off the mark about the most likely trajectory for price gains.
The U.K.'s year-over-year 10.1% rate for March marked the seventh straight month that inflation has been in the double digits. It's also the highest level of any country in the Group of Seven, which also includes the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan. As Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, put it: "Once again, expectations that U.K. inflation would finally fall to single digits for the first time since last summer have been dashed."
/jlne.ws/41kYtYF
Sell in May, Go Away
Cboe (Video)
In #Vol411, @JoeTigay covers today's $VIX expiration (lowest level since Dec 2021), the 10 stocks driving the vast majority of gains in $SPX & that old #markets saying, "sell in May and go away." #options #trading
/jlne.ws/3MWVSA7
| | | | | | Miscellaneous | | | What happens when quants go 'Mad Men'
Gillian Tett - Financial Times
Not long after the 2008 global financial crisis ended, I bumped into a banker who had previously hired "rocket scientists" â the label given to graduates with good engineering and maths skills â to work in the derivatives market. Since banking had, temporarily, been dented, I asked where these whizz kids were now heading if they wanted to make money. "Adtech!" he replied with a chuckle.
/jlne.ws/3KQ63Uq
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