 | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| Lead Stories | | | Oil Options Suggest Price Spike Likely to Be Temporary
Mandy Xu - Cboe
WTI oil 1M implied volatility surged over 20 pts last week to near a 3-year high of 51% on the back of the Iran-Israel conflict. The surge in implied vol far outpaced the increase in realized vol (+10 pts) as the implied-realized spread widened on the back of escalation fears. The 1M volatility risk premium for oil, at over 16 pts currently, ranks as the richest across asset classes (higher even than bitcoin).
/jlne.ws/444ipSb
Wall Street leans on stock traders to cushion dealmaking slowdown; Volatility is keeping market-making desks active at a time when mergers and issuance have slowed
Martin Arnold, Kate Duguid and Akila Quinio - Financial Times
Wall Street executives are counting on their traders to offset tepid deal fees this quarter, after Donald Trump's trade war threats made markets gyrate.
Senior bankers say the market swings prompted by the US president's "liberation day" declaration of higher tariffs led to a flurry of buying and selling by investors, even as corporate boardrooms put deals on ice.
/jlne.ws/45o6st2
Hedge fund Millennium valued at $14bn in minority stake sale talks; Izzy Englander's group working with Petershill Partners as it opens up to external investors for the first time
Harriet Agnew - Financial Times
Millennium Management, one of the world's largest hedge funds, is in talks about selling a minority stake to external investors at a $14bn valuation, as it presses ahead with plans to open up its ownership for the first time. People familiar with the discussions said that Millennium was working with Goldman Sachs' Petershill Partners to identify potential buyers for a 10-15 per cent equity stake in Millennium's management company. It is the first time a formal valuation has been put on the hedge fund.
/jlne.ws/3HLnGGY
Bitcoin, Ethereum Fall as Israel-Iran Conflict Keeps Cryptos on Edge
Brian Swint - Barron's
The price of Bitcoin and other cryptos was falling Tuesday as financial markets more generally paused for breath while the Israel-Iran conflict continued.
Stocks and cryptos fell sharply on Friday, when Israel launched new attacks on its neighbor, but started to recover on Monday. By early Tuesday, the picture was more subdued. Index futures were slipping. Cryptocurrencies were mostly down over the past 24 hours.
/jlne.ws/3ZDilrr
Oil Fluctuates as Israel-Iran Conflict Fuels Market Volatility; Bitcoin, which is viewed as a proxy for risk, lost ground
Sherry Qin - The Wall Street Journal
Oil prices were volatile in Asian trading Tuesday, as markets weighed the odds of a resolution to the Israel-Iran conflict against the prospects of escalation.
Crude prices bounced at the start of the day as news of fresh attacks rolled in, including another wave of Iranian missiles launched at Israel and more Israeli strikes on Iran.
/jlne.ws/3G49yYT
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| Exchanges | | | IDX 2025 opening remarks: Forging our future
Walt Lukken - FIA
Welcome to sunny London and the kick-off of IDX. It's wonderful to see so many friends and colleagues.
The letter X contained in IDX is a perfect symbol for the crossroads that London represents. For generations, London is where the international community has come together to freely exchange goods, ideas and cultures.
IDX feels like a global family reunion among friends and colleagues. There are always hugs, laughter and double-cheeked kisses throughout the week. I'm glad to be a part of such a welcoming global community during such interesting times.
/jlne.ws/406QH6c
CME Group to Launch Futures on Mexico's IPC Index
CME Group
E-mini S&P BMV IPC Index futures to be available for trading on August 18
CHICAGO, June 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, today announced it will launch E-Mini S&P BMV IPC Index futures, pending regulatory review.
The S&P BMV IPC Index, Mexico's main equity index, provides broad exposure to the Mexican equity market and tracks the most liquid stocks listed on Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV).
/jlne.ws/4l3H00y
ICE Launches Average Prime Offer Rates (APOR) Index
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today announced the launch of the ICE Average Prime Offer Rates Index (ICE APOR), which is updated weekly on the ICE Index Platform and publicly available. The ICE APOR Index represents the annual percentage rates derived from average interest rates, points, fees and other terms on mortgages that are offered to consumers. ICE APOR uses the same data from ICE Mortgage Technology's loan origination system, Encompass , that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) uses as the foundation of the weekly APOR rates it calculates and publishes.
/jlne.ws/4l2wTJo
India's NSE Shifts Expiry Day in Derivatives Turf War With BSE
Savio Shetty and Chiranjivi Chakraborty - Bloomberg
The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. said it has received the market regulator's approval to move all its derivatives expiries to Tuesday from Thursday, marking the latest shake-up in the world's largest market for the contracts. The decision came shortly after smaller rival BSE Ltd. announced a similar approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India to shift its expiries to Thursday. Both exchanges will implement the changes from Sept. 1, according to separate statements.
/jlne.ws/4jZTYLP
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| Strategy | | | How to trade the S&P 500's march to record highs using options as volatility remains elevated
Jeff Kilburg - CNBC
Equity bears are growling, and bulls are sharpening their horns. I see an imminent retest of the S & P 500's all-time high as a market melt-up seems to be underway. I want to use options to carefully capture another leg up after the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has bounced 21% since "liberation day" lows back in April and geopolitical tensions ratchet up. In the wake of President Donald Trump announcing his surprising trade tariff plans back in April, there were calls for a recession, a repeat of Black Monday and hyper-inflation. In addition, a cackle of analysts scrambled to reconfigure their bullish 2025 S & P 500 price targets substantially lower after a nearly 20% acute drop in the benchmark equity index.
/jlne.ws/3HFYv8V
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