What’s going on here?

JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon issued a warning against complacent trading, suggesting that markets could change on a dime…on.

What does this mean?

Dimon believes investors may be underestimating the risk of an economic slowdown. That’s partly because, he argued, many younger ones have never seen a real downturn firsthand. So at JPMorgan’s investor day, Dimon laid out all the things that he thinks are worth worrying about: rising inflation, tense geopolitical relationships, volatile tariffs, and risky credit markets. (Credit ratings agency Moody’s did just downgrade the US, after all.) Now, Dimon still seems confident – but cautiously so. He left JPMorgan’s full-year outlook unchanged while warning of less dealmaking ahead and adding nearly $1 billion to the bank’s reserve for bad loans.

Why should I care?

For markets: Something isn’t adding up…

Dimon’s warning is a pointed callout of investors’ behavior. See, the combination of a volatile environment, high borrowing costs, worsening corporate predictions, and murky economic outlooks should push investors out of markets. But they’re piling in instead. Case in point: retail investors spent over $4 billion buying US stocks on Monday – their biggest buying spree on record – after news of Moody’s US credit rating downgrade. That included stocks like Tesla and Palantir that have recently erred riskier, with investors pushing a collective $1 billion into the duo.

The big picture: Power to the people.

Retail investors are now responsible for up to a third of the S&P 500’s daily trades. So despite previously being dismissed as sideline spectators, they currently have a serious say in asset prices. No wonder private companies are taking modern investors so seriously. Reddit, for example, reserved shares for the platform’s most loyal users ahead of its public listing. You, too, will want to keep retail investors in mind: their moods – which can change faster than political policy or corporate earnings – could dictate the direction your portfolio goes in.

What’s going on here?

Poland’s benchmark WIG stock index has risen 29% this year – enough to rank the country’s offerings among the world’s most sizzlin’ stocks.

What does this mean?

You can see why investors have taken to Polish stocks. The country’s economy was Europe’s second-best performer last quarter, picking up 3.8% versus the same time last year. And Polish companies seriously heated up their dividend payments as earnings grew, nearly doubling them over the past two years. The, uh, grilled onions on top: Poland’s stocks have been trading at a 15% discount to the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

Investors have reason to stick around, too. Around three-quarters of Poland’s trade happens within European borders, meaning companies there may be sheltered from the full effect of US tariffs. Germany’s plan to spend more cash could be a boon too, if the country drops some of that dough on Polish exports.

Why should I care?

Zooming out: Maybe Pitbull was right about going worldwide.

Over the last decade, investors have been rewarded for keeping their proverbial eggs in America’s basket. But this year, that one-and-done approach would have resulted in a few broken yolks. So it’s not only Poland receiving newfound attention: investors have also lately been trusting China, Brazil, and Europe with their cash. They’ve been rewarded for it so far – and that could be the case for some time. Many of America’s biggest stocks are close to record-high valuations, which come with lofty, hard-to-meet expectations. Investors, then, could find that international alternatives have more room to grow.

The bigger picture: Think twice.

Poland has benefited from “second-order thinking”: the process of identifying countries, markets, or assets that could indirectly benefit from change elsewhere. Like those Polish stocks preemptively reaping the reward of Germany’s spending plans. Just bear in mind that the easy money has often already been made by the time that thinking becomes the consensus, so you’ll probably need to be one step ahead.