| | | | Tuesday, September 24, 2024 | | I was already planning on writing about starting pitchers this week as I start to wrap my head around the tall task of actually ranking them for 2025, and the Tigers gave me an easy topic to hit on Monday when they announced the promotion of top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe. | | The Tigers are in the midst of a frankly astonishing run for an American League Wild Card spot, having had odds as low as 9.9% to make the playoffs as recently as Sept. 15, per FanGraphs' playoff odds, to over 70% as of Monday. And to help that run, they are calling up Jobe, the top pitching prospect in baseball for the final week of the season. But, while Jobe is someone we think has superstar upside in the long run, he's probably not someone you need to run out and add for Fantasy this week. | | But he is absolutely a name you need to know for 2025. | | The Tigers are calling Jobe up to pitch out of the bullpen, adding another live arm to what has been arguably the team's biggest strong all season long. The Tigers have the sixth-best bullpen ERA in the majors this season, led by the late-inning combination of closer Jason Foley, Tyler Holston, and WIll Vest , among others. Jobe will likely slot into the late-inning hierarchy somewhere below the closer's role -- especially with Foley pitching well lately, allowing just four earned runs in 21.1 innings since the start of September. | | | | If Jobe hits the ground running, he could pair with Holton to dramatically shorten games down the stretch and into the playoffs (if they get there), giving them two potential shutdown relievers who are comfortable going multiple innings at a time. That could be very potent for the Tigers and would give Jobe experience pitching in live action against major-leaguers in high-leverage situations after the Triple-A season has already ended, and he would otherwise be sitting at home. That could be a big deal for his development. | | But it probably won't matter for Fantasy. Not unless the team decides to be even more aggressive and give Jobe legitimate high-leverage innings in the ninth inning immediately. It's not out of the question they get there quickly, but with just six games left in the season, I'd be surprised if it happened before the postseason – though he could be an absolute weapon there, the same way David Price was in the Rays' World Series run back in 2008. | | So, the bigger deal here from a Fantasy perspective is that we're going to get a chance to see Jobe pitch against major-leaguers before he tries to take a rotation role next season. If this audition goes well, it almost certainly guarantees Jobe a spot in the starting five to open next season, something that otherwise might not have been a sure thing after he made just two starts at Triple-A this season. | | And that's certainly something to get excited about. Jobe has had some trouble staying healthy as a professional, though he has avoided any arm or upper body issues this season, instead missing time with a hamstring injury earlier in 2024. But when he's been on the mound, he has been electric, striking out 261 batters in 233 innings with a 2.97 ERA. He's been even better at preventing runs this season (2.36), though his 25.6% strikeout rate across three levels is merely more good than dominant. | | But there's every reason to think he has dominant upside. For one thing, it's worth noting that Jobe has basically had to reinvent himself as a pitcher on the fly since becoming a pro. His calling card originally was a high-spin, big-breaking curveball that scouts loved, but hitters generally spit on as he struggled to throw consistent strikes with it before scrapping it altogether after a back injury in 2023. When he came back, he came armed with a high-80s cutter and a low-80s sweeper, both of which rate out well by Stuff+ despite being relatively new pitches for him, in large part thanks to that ability to generate huge spin that he showed with the curveball. | | | | Out of the bullpen, Jobe figures to sit even higher than his 96.5 mph average fastball velocity from his two Triple-A starts, and he might not need his full arsenal to be a weapon in short bursts, given how dominant the fastball could be as a result. But he does have a full arsenal, with a changeup that has about 12 mph of velocity separation with the fastball and has improved to the point where he throws it nearly as often as his two breaking balls. | | Jobe might not need the full arsenal out of the bullpen, but it's there, and it is starter quality. He's been fast-tracked from day one and is going to end up making his MLB debut after just three partial seasons in the minors and less than 250 total innings. That raises some questions about what his workload might look like in 2025, though he should get close to 100 innings this season if the Tigers make the playoffs, and that should be enough to project something like 150 next season. | | And they could be 150 really good innings. There will be some bumps in the road along the way – just ask basically any pitching prospect except Paul Skenes – and Jobe's injury history and youth will make him a poor bet for even those 150 innings. But if Jobe looks dominant in the bullpen, there's going to be a lot of hype around him in Fantasy Baseball drafts in 2025. And, since he'll have RP eligibility, he could be someone to target, especially early on in H2H points leagues in a year where SPaRP options seem like they'll be lacking. | | Let's hope he gives us something to get excited about over the next week because Jobe could play his way into top-50 consideration among starters for 2025 if he dominates. | | | | Monday's recap | | | | News and Notes | | Yordan Alvarez was out of the lineup Monday and has been diagnosed with a right knee sprain. He won't be available for the next two games but hopes to return this weekend. Bad timing if you're in a H2H points playoff. | | Francisco Lindor said that he's optimistic that he will play again for the Mets before the regular season ends on Sunday, though that's a lot different than the previous report, which was that he was hoping to play Tuesday. At this point, if he isn't in Tuesday's lineup, I think you have to sit him. | | Ian Happ has missed two straight with lower-back tightness. | | Kenley Jansen was placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. Alex Cora mentioned Chris Martin and Justin Slaten could both be in the mix for saves. | | The Rangers are expected to place Josh Jung on the IL with discomfort in his surgically repaired right wrist. He hit just .264 with seven homers in 46 games in a season that was pretty much totally wrecked by that surgery. I'll be buying him as a late-round sleeper and hoping for a bounceback in 2025. | | Bo Bichette traveled to Arizona this week to meet with a hand specialist. He's on the IL with a fractured right middle finger and will similarly be hoping for a bounceback at a drastically reduced cost in 2025 – potentially for a different team than the one he has spent his whole career with so far. | | Gabriel Moreno hopes to return to the Dbacks lineup as soon as Tuesday after an MRI on his left side didn't reveal any structural damage. | | Daulton Varsho underwent right rotator cuff surgery Monday. | | Blue Jays prospect Orelvis Martinez finished serving his 80-game PED suspension Monday and was optioned to the Florida Compex League. He showed some big power in the minors before the suspension and could be an interesting name to keep on your late-round radar for 2025. | | Ryne Nelson is scheduled to throw a 25-pitch bullpen Tuesday. He's on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. | | Charlie Blackmon announced his retirement Monday, finishing his career with 1,797 hits and a .292 career average. Blackmon was one of the best players in Fantasy for about five years at his peak and was surprisingly useful in his twilight years. | | Monday's standouts | | Aaron Nola, Phillies vs. CHC: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – It's been a pretty normal season for Nola, which was a relief after 2023's inflated ERA. If you believe in the "every other year" rule with Nola, you'll fade him for 2023, but I think the reality here is that he's just a pretty volatile pitcher in terms of his ERA because he doesn't have the overwhelming stuff to mitigate the rare mistakes he makes. You know you're going to get great volume and a strong WHIP from Nola, but the ERA volatility keeps him from being a true ace. As a boring, stabilizing source of volume, Nola will be a fine SP2 for 2025 but not someone to reach for at this point in his career. | | Bryce Miller, Mariners @HOU: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – As a general rule, you're better off judging a player's full-season stats over trying to determine which slice of a partial season might have more predictive value. But when it comes to players who are clearly still developing, there can be more value in buying late-season trends, and I think I'm going to do that with Miller, who has a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his past 15 starts. Primarily because this is a guy who has been tinkering with his approach since he debuted in the majors, going from throwing his fastball around 70-80% of the time in his first handful of starts last year to becoming one of the more unlikely kitchen sink artists in the game – he threw seven different pitches at least 5% of the time Monday. His four-seamer is still his bread-and-butter pitch, but with the rest of the arsenal developing the way it has, I think it makes sense to buy the upward trajectory, if not literally the sub-2.00 ERA. | | Hunter Brown, Astros vs. SEA: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – Brown is another guy who clearly took a big step forward mid-season, and his run of success has gone even longer than Miller's, with a 2.31 ERA over his past 22 starts. I think his 3.49 season ERA is probably more representative of the talent level, and I can't shake the feeling that Brown might be another Mitch Keller, a guy who had a similar run when he broke out but hasn't been able to consistently dial it in since then. I probably won't draft Brown as a top-30 SP next season if that's where the price ends up, but he'll be top-40 for sure. | | Tanner Houck, Red Sox vs. TOR: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K – Houck has managed to keep the results viable, but he's become a much less interesting pitcher in the second half. His 4.42 ERA over the past 14 starts is playable, but it has come with a 1.38 WHIP and just 53 strikeouts over 75.1 innings in that stretch, emerging as more of a boring, groundball type after his apparent early-season breakout. I think he's probably just a low-upside, mid-to-late-round target for 2025 after this regression. | | Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. BOS: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 7 BB, 2 K – The weirdest thing about Bassitt this season has been the regression with his command. Even before this start, Bassitt's 8.6% walk rate was his highest since 2018, and without a concurring increase in strikeout rate, it's easy to see why he's been so mediocre. I think there's room for a Seth Lugo-esque resurgence next season, so I won't write Bassitt off entirely as a late-round target, but I won't be particularly interested in drafting the soon-to-be 36-year-old, either. | | Hayden Birdsong, Giants @ARI: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Given the tough matchup, this was a very fine start from Birdsong, who has shown some real flashes of upside in his rookie season. His curveball, changeup, and slider each have whiff rates over 33%, which is solid all around, but he's just been let down by a fastball that has allowed a 93.1 mph average exit velocity and .432 xwOBA. He needs to improve that fastball and find a way to throw strikes more consistently, so Birdsong shouldn't be counted on as a contributor for 2025. But I think he'll be an interesting late-round sleeper in deeper leagues, given the vague outlines of an interesting pitcher you can see here. | | Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks vs. SF: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – Well, that's not an ideal start to the two-start week. He continued to get solid whiff and strikeout numbers, but the Giants hit him hard when they did make contact, sporting an average exit velocity of 95 mph. Rodriguez just never seemed quite right after opening the season on the IL, and his changeup has really regressed, going from a 31.7% whiff rate to just 24.7%. Rodriguez has bounced back from a disappointing season before, as recently as 2023, so I don't want to write him off entirely. But he'll be just a bench piece to draft in 2025, with an eye on a hot start or an early drop. | | | | | | | | Golazo Network | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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