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| Thursday, September 12, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| One of the biggest games of Week 2 (Bills at Dolphins) is going down tonight and because I want you to be able to watch it, it's time for my annual reminder that Thursday night games are on Amazon, which means the only way you'll be able to watch the game is if you have an Amazon Prime subscription. An annual subscription costs $139 per year and I have no idea if it's worth it, but my wife tells me it is and I guess I'll take her word for it since there are usually 19 different boxes from Amazon laying around our house at any given time. |
| If you don't feel like shelling out $139 for an annual subscription, you can sign up for a free 30-day trial here, which will allow you to watch the game. Amazon did not pay me to get you to sign up, which is my fault, because I definitely should have asked for a cut. |
| Anyway, we'll be previewing tonight's game in the newsletter, plus we'll be taking a look at the reported record-setting offer that the Bengals made to Ja'Marr Chase. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Bills at Dolphins |
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| The first Thursday night game of the season was on NBC, but starting tonight, Amazon will be taking over Thursdays. So what does that mean for you? It means that if you want to watch tonight's game, you have three options: You can move to Miami, you can move to Buffalo (the game is shown on local TV in both markets) or you can sign up for Amazon Prime (If you go that route, you can get the free 30-day subscription that I mentioned at the top. The free trial will allow you to watch the next five Thursday games before you have to decide whether you actually want to pay for Prime). |
| Now that we've got that out of the way, let's talk about the actual game. Here's a small preview for tonight: |
| Why the Bills can win: Two words: Josh Allen. In Allen's last 12 games against the Dolphins, including the playoffs, he's gone 11-1 against them and the only loss was by two points. He's thrown at least two touchdown passes in 13 straight games against Miami, which is an NFL record for consecutive games with multiple touchdowns against one team. He's averaging 285.8 passing yards per game and 50.6 rushing yards per game in his career against Miami, which makes him just one of two quarterbacks in NFL history to average at least 250 yards passing and 50 yards rushing against a single team. Basically, Allen has been unstoppable against the Dolphins and if that continues, it's hard to see Miami winning. To make matters worse for the Dolphins, Allen has also never lost a Thursday night game in his career (6-0). Why the Dolphins can win: The Bills have a revamped secondary and when you have a revamped secondary, the last team you want to face this early in the season is probably the Dolphins. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could have big nights for Miami and if that happens, you have to like the Dolphins' chances of winning. Also, the Bills had some serious trouble stopping the run in Week 1 and if they don't have that fixed by tonight, they're likely going to struggle to slow down a Dolphins offense that put up 400 yards in Week 1. |
| One other note about this game is that the Dolphins could be hurting in the backfield. Raheem Mostert (chest) has already been ruled out and De'Von Achane (ankle) has been listed as questionable. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Cody Benjamin by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. |
| ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Josh Allen OVER 245.5 passing yards (-115): The Bills quarterback always seems to save his best for the Dolphins. As I mentioned above, he's literally averaging more than 280 passing yards per game against Miami in his career. He could come up 30 yards short of that and still hit the over tonight, which is why I like this number. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Tyler Bass OVER 6.5 points (-120): Bass scored 10 points in the Bills' season opening win over the Cardinals and I won't be surprised if he gets near that number again. Including that game, Bass has gone over 6.5 in six of Buffalo's last eight regular-season games dating to last year. |
| The guys over at SportsLine have a full betting preview that you can check out here. |
| PICKS FOR 'TNF' |
Cody's pick: Bills 28-26 over Dolphins
My pick: Dolphins 27-24 over Bills |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, six of our experts have turned in their pick for tonight and EVERYONE is taking Buffalo except for me. I'm either going to get made fun of tomorrow or I'm going to rub it in after the Dolphins win. |
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| 2. Bengals made record-setting offer to Ja'Marr Chase: Why the deal still isn't done |
| When it comes to the contract talks between Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals, both sides managed to keep a tight lid on how negotiations were going in the lead-up to Cincinnati's opener. However, it looks like some information has finally leaked out. |
| Here's the latest on the situation: |
| Bengals made record-setting offer. Chase wants to be the highest-paid player in the NFL and the Bengals were actually willing to make that happen. According to James Rapien, who covers the team for Sports Illustrated , the Bengals offered Chase a four-year, $140 million extension. At $35 million per year, that would put Chase in a tie with Justin Jefferson for the title of highest-paid receiver in NFL history. The key details of the deal. Getting a big contract isn't all about average annual value, players also want a lot of guaranteed money. The offer from the Bengals included $90 million in practical guarantees along with a $30 million signing bonus. Jefferson's contract included $110 million in guarantees, so the Bengals weren't quite matching that part of Jefferson's deal. Why Chase didn't accept the deal. According to SI, Chase didn't like the structure of the guarantees. The Bengals were looking to pay them out by 2027, but Chase wanted them sooner. To put that in perspective, let's look at Jefferson's deal. The Vikings receiver is getting $88.74 million fully guaranteed at signing. The largest chunks of that total are his signing bonus ($36.94 million), a 2025 option bonus ($30 million). By the time the 2025 season ends, Jefferson will have potentially pocketed $70 million. Chase probably wants something similar, but it appears the Bengals aren't willing to do that. Why the Bengals might not be willing to do that. The Bengals have been doing business the same way for years: They generally will only give a player fully guaranteed money during the first year of his deal that's usually in the form of a signing bonus. In this instance, Chase would get a $30 million signing bonus, but he apparently didn't like how the guarantees were structured after that. |
| Before Week 1, Chase was asked how his contract talks were going and he gave an interesting answer. "I want to say we're off a little bit, but it's in reach," Chase said on Sept. 6. "I'd say we're pretty close. A few numbers need to be switched around and changed other places, but I'll say we're pretty close." |
| Chase said the two sides were close, and now, we know how close they were. You can get the full story on the Chase offer here. |
| 3. Deshaun Watson's camp responds to newest lawsuit: Here are the latest details on the case |
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| Less than 48 hours after being hit with a new sexual assault lawsuit, Deshaun Watson met with the media and obviously, there was only one topic that anyone wanted to talk about. |
| Here's the latest on the Watson case: |
| Watson denies the allegations. Watson's attorney, Rusty Hardin, issued a stern denial of the allegations on Wednesday. "Deshaun strongly denies the allegations in the Jane Doe lawsuit filed Monday," Hardin said in a statement. "We have asked him not to comment further while this matter works its way through the courts, but are comfortable he will ultimately be vindicated. We will be ready to defend this case in court at the appropriate time, but don't intend to conduct our defense in the media."NFL is now investigating. The league has already started the process of looking into the complaint. However, Watson won't be placed on the commissioner's extempt list while the NFL investigates. "We are reviewing the complaint, and we will look into the matter under the personal conduct policy. Not looking at commissioner's exempt list as there's been no formal charges and the league's review has just begun," league spokesperson Brian McCarthy said, via ESPN.The alleged victim's attorney, Tony Buzbee, told Pro Football Talk via a statement that they are planning to interview with the NFL in two weeks and that they will share a "pertinent" video.Browns won't be benching Watson. The Browns could bench Watson until the legal process plays out, but that won't be happening. Coach Kevin Stefanski said that Watson will be starting on Sunday in Jacksonville and that the team plans to "let the due process play out." |
| We covered the details of the lawsuit on Tuesday, but if you need a refresher, you can check out our full story on the allegations here. |
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| 4. NFL has quirky Week 1: Offenses turned the clock back with more rushing touchdowns than passing |
| The NFL has turned into a passing league over the past decade, but if Week 1 is any indication, that trend might be reversing. Of course, one week isn't a large enough sample size to make any assumptions, but passing definitely took a step back during the opening week of the season. |
| Jonathan Jones broke everything down, so let's take a look at a few of his key stats: |
| Passing touchdowns were down. There were only 35 touchdown passes thrown in Week 1, which is the fewest the NFL has seen during the opening week of the season since 2006. Baker Mayfield (4) and Derek Carr (3) were the only quarterbacks in the NFL who threw more than two touchdown passes in Week 1. They combined for 20% of all scoring throws during the opening week. Rushing the is the new passing. There were 36 rushing touchdowns in Week 1, which marks the first time since 1989 that there were more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns in the opening week of the season. It's also something that's happened just five times since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. There were only three players who scored multiple rushing touchdowns in Week 1 and two of them -- Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen -- were quarterbacks (Saquon Barkley was the other). Passing numbers are down. NFL games averaged just 376.1 yards passing in Week 1, which is the lowest in the opening week of the season since 1996. |
| One theory on the decline in passing numbers is that offensive players just aren't on the same page due to their lack of playing time in the preseason. Also, there's now a huge gap between the final preseason game and the first regular-season game. Teams used to get just a one week break before the start of the season, but now they get a two-week break. |
| The piece from Jones is definitely interesting and you can check out the full story here. |
| 5. Agent's Take: Building the ultimate 53-man roster |
| Anyone can build an ultimate 53-man roster for the NFL, but not everyone can do it like Joel Corry. As a former NFL agent, Corry thought it would be fun to build a 53-player all-star team with one rule: He has to stay under the salary cap. |
| Basically, what he came up with is the best team you could possibly buy using the NFL's own rules. The salary cap this year is $255.4 million, so Corry built the best team he could while also staying under that number. |
| Here's a list of the offensive players on his list, along with their 2024 cap number: |
QB: Brock Purdy, 49ers ($1.01 million)
RB: Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($3.8 million)
WR: Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($8.61 million)
WR: A.J. Brown, Eagles ($11.84 million)
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($4.87 million)
TE: Sam LaPorta, Lions ($2.16 million)
LT: Trent Williams, 49ers ($21.84 million)
LG: Joel Bitonio, Browns ($12.14 million)
C: Creed Humphrey, Chiefs ($5.16 million)
RG: Chris Lindstrom, Falcons ($9.01 million)
RT: Lane Johnson, Eagles ($15.87 million) |
| That's the entire offense, and Corry has spent just $96.31 million, which is less than 40% of his budget. If you want to know how he spent the rest of his money and how much he spent on defensive players, then be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Injuries already piling up for Browns and Rams |
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| It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Browns place four players on IR. We're only a week into the season and the injuries are already piling up for the Browns. The team placed starting safety Juan Thornhill on IR this week along with linebackers Mohamoud Diabate and Tony Fields II and defensive tackle Maurice Hurst II. The Browns have also ruled David Njoku (ankle) out of this week's game against Jacksonville. You can read more about Cleveland's injuries here. Rams hit even harder by injuries. The Rams were forced to put three players on IR this week, but the painful part is that all three of them are starters. WR Puka Nacua, C/G Steve Avila and LT Joe Noteboom will all miss at least the next four games. The good news for the Rams is that they have a Week 6 bye, which means all four of these players will get five weeks to heal before potentially making a return in Week 7 against the Raiders. Joe Burrow says wrist isn't an issue. Some Bengals fans became concerned after Burrow was shown flexing his wrist on TV during Sunday's loss to the Patriots. According to Burrow, it's not a big deal and his wrist is fine. You can read more about his comments here. Ravens starter rips Chiefs medical staff for conduct during season opener. Kyle Van Noy is NOT happy about the treatment he got from the Chiefs' medical staff after he injured his orbital socket during Baltimore's Week 1 game in Kansas City. Van Noy said the the team's ophthalmologist was "super unprofessional." It's an interesting situation and you can read more about it here. |
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