| Note: Tonight, our colleague Jeff Brown goes live with his cryptocurrency strategy session… Jeff says that the incoming administration is about to put in place a radical policy shift concerning digital assets… and it will give major tailwinds to certain small crypto coins. If you buy in early, you could be sitting pretty by the end of this year. So if you haven’t yet added your name to his guest list, there’s still a little time. Go right here to sign up automatically. It’s Going to Be a Trader’s Market By Larry Benedict, editor, Trading With Larry Benedict Donald Trump is sworn in as president in five days. And we’ll finally see how much of his election agenda he puts into action. His proposals range from tariffs and immigration controls to proposed tax cuts… and wanting to buy Greenland. Any of these decisions could sway the markets and economy this year. Yet there’s another vital piece of the puzzle. The Federal Reserve will be at the heart of the action this year. As we discussed yesterday, the Fed dropped the number of rate cuts in 2025 from four to two at its last meeting in December. Yet the market is now tentatively factoring in one rate cut… and not until October. In all likelihood, though, we must face the possibility of no cut rates this year at all. That’s making investors increasingly nervous… and is setting us up for an active year of trading. | | | Jeff Brown: “Buy These ‘Trump Coins’ Before His Inauguration” | | Tonight, January 15, at 8 pm ET, Jeff will be hosting his first special strategy session of the year… To help you prepare for the inauguration of America’s first ever pro-crypto president. Jeff believes if you know which “Trump coins” to buy, you could turn a tiny stake into a six-figure nest egg, possibly by the end of the year. Click here to automatically RSVP and during his first strategy session he’ll even give you the name of a “Trump coin” completely free of charge. |
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Fighting Inflation For much of the post-COVID period, the Fed focused on one thing… getting inflation under control. To do that, the Fed raised rates from 0.25% in February 2022 to 5.5% by July 2023. Yet as of last year, we’ve swung back to a rate-cutting cycle. The Fed has cut 1.0% in total, and it’s already dealing with a major quandary… Inflation has stopped falling. In fact, it has recently been rising. The fight has stalled out as the economy shows no signs of slowing. If anything, the economy has picked up momentum. And that is showing up in the recent data… Traders pay attention to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report because purchasing managers provide real-time insights about their company’s performance. Details in the PMI reports, like new orders, can be a leading indicator of economic performance. And the Services PMI just saw a big rebound. It jumped to 54.1 in December. That is tracking around 18-month highs. Manufacturing PMI has shown signs of a resurgence as well. It rose to 49.3 in December – its highest reading since its March 2024 peak. And those aren’t the only strong numbers we’re seeing. The other real standout has been jobs… The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows us the number of positions employers are actively trying to fill. A higher number indicates more demand for labor. That signals a robust economy. And JOLTS data for November came in at its highest level in six months at 8.1 million. It was almost 400,000 higher than market forecasts. The strong jobs data continued with last Friday’s nonfarm payroll (NFP) data. NFP tells us the change in the number of paid workers over the previous month (excluding farm workers and a few other categories). The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December. That was almost 100,000 more than forecast and the highest reading since March last year. And after reaching 4.2% in November, the unemployment rate in December dropped back to 4.1%. These reports suggest the economy is humming along just fine. And that makes it harder for the Fed to keep cutting rates… Free Trading Resources Have you checked out Larry’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just click here to check it out. |
Implications for the Markets Without rate cuts, the market will lose a big driver of its rally last year. And lofty stock valuations will come under even more scrutiny. We already saw that last week… Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rolled over and finished the week on their lows. That sell-off included Nvidia (NVDA) and other heavy hitters like Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Amazon (AMZN). As we approach Q4 earnings, you can be sure stock valuations will remain under intense pressure. And we could have surprises in store if expectations fall flat. That’s going to ramp volatility higher – something I’m expecting to last throughout the year. The great news is that’s going to make 2025 a trader’s market. We can turn volatility to our advantage… and profit whether the market rises or falls. So even with uncertainty on the horizon, there’s no need to fear. At One Ticker Trader, we’ve already turned the choppiness into 56.7%, 19%, 47%, and 42% gains on our first four trades of 2025. To join us for our next trades, simply go right here to learn more about our strategy. Regards, Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict | 