And very wrong at Woolworths

Good morning Voornaam,

The flurry of updates in the retail sector has continued, with Shoprite and Woolworths adding their names to the list. The underlying performance couldn't be more different.

Mind you, Woolies is doing a solid job of competing on the food side of things. As for apparel, it's another mess I'm afraid. In the prior year they blamed the ports and now they've blamed suppliers being late. I think the market is well and truly out of patience with the issues being everyone else's fault but theirs, especially when the Australian business is still going firmly in the wrong direction as well.

As for Shoprite, it's more of what you would expect. They continue to shoot the lights out in the core business, while incubating exciting new businesses like Petshop Science. If I was a retailer, I would actively avoid releasing results on the same day as Shoprite. It's like trying to scrum against a fresh bomb squad - not recommended.

Elsewhere in the food value chain, we saw AVI squeezing out solid earnings growth from muted revenue growth. They are pretty famous for doing this and they seem to still have the magic recipe for it. Over at Rainbow Chicken, profits have skyrocketed thanks to vastly better conditions in that industry. Tiger Brands has decided to exit the South American market with a sale of its investment in Chile.

Attacq sits even further up the value chain, holding the properties that these retailers operate from. Their festive update shows that the two-pot liquidity found its way into more discretionary retail categories, which ties up with what we've seen recently in other company updates.

And finally, Renergen issued a chunk of shares at these depressed prices. Sadly, with an ongoing need for capital, this is an ugly snowball effect that is difficult to do anything about unless the narrative improves.

Get all the important details with just one click in Ghost Bites>>>

China is never far from the headlines, as proven once more this week by the emergence of AI technology that gave the Western tech giants a fright. This is the thing with China: it's a land of immense opportunity and excitement, but also plenty of surprises - and not always positive ones. This makes it an ideal candidate for a structured product that seeks to manage the downside risk while offering strong upside opportunities. Japie Lubbe of Investec Structured Products joined me on a podcast to talk about International Opportunities Limited, a structured product that references the CSI 300 Index in China. Get all the details and the transcript here>>>

You only have until the end of this week to apply for equity funding from MIC Khulisani Ventures if you are a qualifying Black-Owned business. After we released a podcast with full details at the end of 2024, the team has summarised the opportunity in a new article that includes a link to the podcast for those who missed it. Don't delay!


Have a great day!

INVESTEC: International Opportunities Limited - a Chinese equity structured product

China is a land that is fraught with risk and brimming with opportunity. With enhanced upside as well as downside protection, International Opportunities Limited is a structured product that seeks to balance the risks and rewards available in Chinese equity markets.

International Opportunities Limited offers 1.3x geared exposure to the CSI 300 Index, capped at 60% growth for a maximum return of 78% in USD. In addition, there is 100% capital protection at maturity in USD.

Japie Lubbe of Investec Structured Products joined me to discuss the structure in detail. Get it here>>>

SATRIX: Low-risk high-reward - the low-volatility anomaly

Does taking higher risk always lead to higher returns? Or is there something to be said for seeking out lower volatility equity exposure, especially if it can generate similar overall returns?

Nico Katzke of Satrix digs into the numbers to bring you this insightful piece on portfolio and risk strategy.

Enjoy it here>>>

Ghost Wrap - five insights from December

Ghost Wrap: There were some great stories in December that are well worth keeping in mind in January. Italtile's share price needs a careful watch. Prosus is making major acquisitions again. Renergen is still dealing with teething issues - and a legal dispute as well. Metair is getting very little out of its Turkish business. Finally, will Bell Equipment shareholders kick themselves? I cover these topics in Ghost Wrap, brought to you by Forvis Mazars and available here>>>

MIC KHULISANI VENTURES - A game-changer for Black-Owned businesses in South Africa

MIC Khulisani Ventures is looking for Black-Owned business with high scalability and a commitment to growth. Equity funding is available and applications close at the end of January 2025. Get the details here>>>

GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market

Important retail updates from Shoprite and Woolworths were accompanied by updates further up the value chain from AVI, Rainbow Chicken and Tiger Brands. Attacq and Renergen rounded out a busy day of news. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>>

DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Short Stories v.05: Ideas for good

In a profit-motivated world, there are companies that find ways to solve genuine social problems through their products. Savlon, Honda, Energizer, Phillips and Renault all caught the attention of Dominique Olivier with their initiatives. Get the story here>>>

Unlock the Stock - KAL Group

Unlock the Stock: KAL Group joined the platform for the first time to talk about the performance and strategic focus areas in the broader agriculture industry. Enjoy the presentation and Q&A here>>>

MAGAnomics: Trump and the global economy

What impact will Trump’s presidency have on the global economy and emerging markets? Tune in to the latest episode of the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast for insights from Investec experts, Annabel Bishop (SA) and Ellie Henderson (UK).

International Business Snippet:

LVMH released an update and it was an important one, particularly after such strong news from Richemont that boosted the entire luxury sector this month. It's interesting to note that alcohol sales are under pressure, reflecting a broader emerging trend around decreasing demand for alcohol. As for smelling and looking good, there's no such demand issue there - Sephora did extremely well with double-digit growth in revenue and profit. Geographically, it was another weak quarter in Asia as expected, with the exception of Japan as an incredibly strong market for the company.

Sticking with the luxury sector, our research in Magic Markets Premium this week is on Burberry as a genuinely interesting turnaround candidate for riskier equity portfolios in 2025. Our subscribers can enjoy our detailed work on this company, complementing some of our other recent reports with similar turnaround opportunities.

Magic Markets: Banking on banking

Magic Markets: Banking is a critical sector in the economy and can be a lucrative investment as well. But what are the key metrics to consider? And just how important are the macroeconomics? Get the podcast and transcript here>>>

Macroeconomic indicators

US markets have managed to snap their recent losing streak, producing a strong close overnight. The focus has moved to tech sector earnings with heavyweight counters Meta, Microsoft and Tesla results up later today.

In addition to earnings news, there will be a big focus on central bank activity with the Fed rates decision and monetary policy statement out this evening and the ECB rates decision tomorrow. The South African Reserve Bank is also set to conclude its Monetary Policy Meeting tomorrow.

Asian equity markets are firmer this morning and we are expecting a positive start for our local bourse the JSE All-Share Index.

The dollar and US Treasury Yields are slightly lower today and in turn we have seen the rand holding on to yesterday’s gains.

Oil prices are flat on the day, although remain at depressed levels on Trump’s call for lower prices of the commodity and support for increased US production of fossil fuels.

Gold has managed to claw back recent losses and is again moving closer to all time high territory.


Key Indicators:
USD/ZAR
R18.64/$ | US 10yr
4.52% | Gold $2,760/oz | Platinum $942/oz | Brent Crude $76.43

As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading.