Explosions were reported in Tehran around 3:30am local time, hitting what appeared to be the Revolutionary Guards’ command centre. Not long after, at about 4:15am, another strike targeted the Natanz nuclear site, where thick black smoke was seen on TV rising from the area.
Iranian state media reports that the strikes on Tehran killed five people and injured 20. Separately, state TV said that at least 50 people, including women and children, have been wounded nationwide.
Iran’s oil ministry has said that Friday’s deadly Israeli strikes did not hit any major refineries or fuel depots. In a statement, it confirmed that all facilities are operating normally and fuel supply across the country has not been disrupted.
Two Israeli officials have told Reuters that the country is bracing for an Iranian response in the coming hours. Israel’s defence Minister Israel Katz declared an emergency situation across the country due to Israel’s strikes in Iran.
He warned that a missile and drone attack on Israeli civilians was likely to happen soon, and said he has signed “a special order, according to which a special state of emergency will be imposed on the home front throughout the entire State of Israel”.
Later, in comments that suggest the operation could be long and difficult, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “Israeli citizens may have to remain in sheltered areas for lengthy periods of time”.
What other actions did the Israelis take? “Israeli officials are saying that Mossad went in early to take actions that would undermine Iran’s ability to strike back. We don’t know exactly what that means, but it sounds like sabotage of missile infrastructure, possibly ballistic missiles.”
Why did Israel do this now?
Israel has been threatening to target Iran’s nuclear capabilities for decades. Now, it has finally launched its first strikes, but why act now?
Yesterday, a report came out from the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, criticising Iran for failing to meet its obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. For the first time in 20 years, the IAEA board formally declared Iran in violation, showing growing frustration with Tehran’s lack of cooperation, Julian Borger explains.
“They’ve accumulated a significant stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, which is almost all the way to weapons grade … Netanyahu said in his speech today that Iran has enough for nine nuclear bombs. Whether that’s true or not, I don’t know.”
The strikes come in the middle of US and Iranian talks aimed at reviving nuclear negotiations and easing regional tensions. In 2018, during his previous term, Donald Trump pulled the US out of the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), claiming it was flawed, and reimposed heavy sanctions on Tehran.
“Secretary of State Marco Rubio, was quick to say the US wasn’t involved and warned Iran not to hit US targets, trying to distance themselves from Israel to avoid blowback,” Julian says.
“It seems Trump had a sense something might happen,” Julian adds, pointing to the recent US decision to withdraw some of its personnel from the Middle East over the past few days.
“Netanyahu’s taken a big gamble by doing it without US support. I think what he’s gambling on is that when Iran strikes back, Trump will have no choice but to step in again in Israel defence and help with the defensive shield like it did last October,” Julian tells me. “But it seems to me quite a big gamble to take.”
How will Iran respond?
Israeli media says Iran has sent around 100 drones toward Israel, and military officials have confirmed that work is underway to try to shoot them down.
Iran’s foreign ministry has said the US, as Israel’s main supporter, will be responsible for the consequences of “Israel’s adventurism”. In its statement, the ministry says the Israeli attack “exposes global security to unprecedented threat” and calls on the international community to condemn it.
“Iran said they were going to hit back very forcefully - that they would give a ‘forceful slap’. The question is: can they? The Israelis have hit a whole lot of their missile sites,” Julian says.
“When they launched a mass drone and ballistic and cruise missile attack in October last year, almost no one got hit. The only fatality was a Palestinian in the West Bank that was hit by falling debris. Israel’s middle defences and air defence proved to be effective. Iran was not aiming at the cities that time, and wasn’t using as many missiles as it could. They’re still taking a risk, some missiles could get through. And Netanhyhu has appealed for patience and resilience from Israel and is bracing them for the long haul.”
What have other countries in the region said?
“Jordan has said they’re closing their airspace and want no part in this. But in October, much of the Iranian attack flew over Jordan and was intercepted there. There’s not much they can actually do to prevent that,” Julian says.
“You’ve got to wonder what the Gulf Arab states really think. Some may feel Israel is doing them a favour by weakening Iran, while others may believe it’s reckless and will only provoke Iran to rebuild its arsenal and accelerate its nuclear programme.”
The big question now is whether these strikes have torpedoed the negotiations between the US and Iran, with the latter racing to build a nuclear bomb. “Many analysts thought Iran was hedging, by stockpiling enriched material without actually crossing the line. The conventional wisdom was that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei hadn’t given the final directive, that final step to turn it into a weapon. That was the conventional wisdom.
“Now, Netanyahu, when he gave his TV address in the early hours of morning, made the claim that in recent months Iran has recently taken steps towards weaponisation. That’s a big claim and we don’t know if it’s true.”
