| On the last day of the Jewish high holiday of Simchat Torah, sirens were heard as far as Tel Aviv, alerting people to a barrage of rockets that were heading from the Gaza Strip. Hamas said they had launched 5,000 rockets – the IDF’s figure stood at 2,200. At the same time, Palestinian gunmen had entered Israel. Within hours, militants had infiltrated three military bases and raided the border towns of Sderot, Be’eri, and Ofakim. Israel have said more than 100 hostages, including women and children, have been taken into Gaza by Hamas, which hugely complicates any Israeli military operation to free them, Peter Beaumont reports. The hostages include festival-goers who were attending an all-night party celebrating the Jewish holiday near the Gaza-Israel border, where 260 bodies were later found. Airlines have suspended flights into Tel Aviv, all schools across Israel and Gaza are closed and businesses have pulled their shutters down. For now, life has come to a halt. How has Israel responded? Prime minister Benjamin Netanyhu vowed to destroy Hamas and launched a large scale offensive, firing a wave of retaliatory airstrikes on Gaza, destroying dozens of buildings. In a televised statement he said: “Our enemy will pay a price the type of which it has never known. We are in a war and we will win it.” He also told Gaza residents to “get out of there now” ahead of an Israeli military attack. However, they have no way to get out. Since 2007 Gaza has been under a full land, sea and air blockade, leading many to question where Gaza residents were expected to go as the borders into Israel and Egypt have been shut. Approximately 20,000 people have taken shelter in United Nations schools and hospitals. Israeli warplanes continued “intense” strikes in the territory, and have targeted several buildings in the centre of Gaza City, including Palestine Tower, an 11-storey building that houses Hamas radio stations, a mosque in Khan Yunis, a school where 225 people were said to be sheltering from rocket fire and Watan Tower which services as a hub for internet providers. Most areas are without electricity as Israel has stopped supplying Gaza with power and fuel, as well as food and water. The unending shelling has made Gaza’s already dire humanitarian situation even worse, with under-equipped hospitals making appeals for blood donors. Why did this happen? Hamas said the attack was in response to the scenes of Israeli settlers praying inside the compound of al-Aqsa mosque in East Jerusalem and due to the treatment that Palestinians have faced over the decades. The area around the mosque is religiously significant to Jewish people and Muslims alike. Jews are not allowed to pray inside al-Aqsa compound, doing so, according to Guardian analysis, is highly provocative. Experts and analysts however have said that the attack was not solely caused by these events – not least because this offensive would have taken months of preparation and planning. The incursion follows recent surges of conflict in Jerusalem and the Israeli-occupied West Bank: 2022 was one of the deadliest years for West Bank Palestinians with at least 146 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces. In February, there was a settler attack in Huwara so violent that the Israeli military called it a pogrom (a violent riot incited with the aim of massacring or expelling an ethnic or religious group). There has also been a marked escalation in the number of attacks against Israelis as the political situation has deteriorated in recent years: in 2022, 29 Israelis and two foreign nationals, 27 of which were civilians, were killed in attacks by Palestinians or Israeli Arabs, the deadliest year for Israelis since 2015. The election of Israel’s hard right government, and the de facto annexation of the West Bank which began earlier this year, demonstrated how unstable the situation had become. A poll that was conducted towards the end of last year found that support for the peace process had plummeted to an all time low: Palestinian support for armed struggle was increasing and more and more Israelis believed that they should go to war. The global context In his analysis, Peter Beaumont pointed towards the US-brokered normalisation deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a significant factor. “The reality is that while Hamas has dressed up the attack as a response to Israeli incursions around the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, it chose to trigger this conflict – at this time and in the way it did – as a way to impose itself in that wider diplomacy,” Beaumont writes. The attack has happened during a highly sensitive diplomatic moment that could see an alliance between the two countries – a situation that would be alarming for Iran and Hamas. Patrick Wintour’s analysis provides comprehensive insight into how this will change the picture of Middle Eastern diplomacy. What will happen next? Hamas leaders have called on Palestinians to join the fight and “sweep away the [Israeli] occupation”, meanwhile the Israeli military has called for mass mobilisation of its army reserves. The IDF has said that it has secured 22 locations but is continuing to sweep through others. And there are growing concerns that the outbreak of violence could spark a broader regional conflict that could draw in Lebanon’s military group, Hezbollah. A sizeable war will cause significant civilian casualties, on both sides, and is unlikely to stabilise a region that has long simmered with unresolved tensions. | 