As regular readers will know, Chris Gilmour writes for Ghost Mail every Monday. I'm not sure what he had for breakfast throughout last week, but he's pulled together a remarkable article on China. It's long, but it's totally worth it.
In this piece, Chris looks at whether investors will return to China after a nasty recent sell-off. There are strong arguments to be made that the GDP growth honeymoon is over in that part of the world, driven by the demographic hangover of the one-child policy and the localisation of supply chains by Western firms. He also addresses the Taiwan risk and explains why he believes it is different to Russia - Ukraine.
It would be very silly of you not to read this article. Just make sure you have a strong cup of coffee with you when you do.
I also dedicated several hours this weekend to unpacking some of the more important stories on the JSE. Last week was busy in the retail sector, capped off by a results announcement from The Foschini Group (TFG) on Friday. The numbers are brilliant, demonstrating the power of the model and the recent strategy to increase local procurement. Take a deeper look at TFG in this article.
In case you missed them, I also wrote on Spar and Mr Price last week. Make sure you've read all three articles so that you are fully up to speed on the retail sector.
Moving on from retail, African Rainbow Capital (ARC) Investments released an investment update on Friday. With a diversified investment portfolio that includes the likes of rain, TymeBank and Alexander Forbes, ARC is always worth reading about even if you aren't an investor in the group. Get the latest information on the portfolio in this article.
There's already so much here for you to devour. To make sure you haven't missed any of the other stories, remember to read Friday's edition of Ghost Bites - the best way to stay on top of the JSE news.
The major market mover on Friday was the release of US CPI data. Wichard Cilliers (Head of Market Risk at TreasuryONE) keeps us updated as always:
"US CPI printed 8.6% year-on-year, higher than the expected 8.3%. It seems that inflation is more robust than initially thought and the market is expecting 2x 50bps hikes from the Fed. The US dollar is on the front foot and really hurting the currency markets. The momentum that the rand had in the back end of Thursday continued during Friday, but the rand lost nearly 70 cents based on the CPI print. It moved from R15.17 on Thursday morning to R15.84 by the end of Friday. All other emerging markets are under pressure from the inflation print as the US dollar flexed its muscles. We expect markets to remain on the back foot. Calls of a recession and stagflation will only feed the "risk-off" narrative and could cause emerging market to come under pressure going forward."
The markets really are fascinating! There's always something going on and always something to learn. This is why I enjoy Magic Markets so much, the podcast that I co-host with Mohammed Nalla. In Episode 79, we decided to ask each other three burning questions. We touched on gold, our research approach and eve n the differences between Canada and South Africa. Be sure to listen to it at this link.
Finally, those interested in MultiChoice Group should refer to the detailed earnings update from the company that has been included in Ghost Mail this morning.
There's so much for you to learn and enjoy this morning. I hope you make the most of it!
Have a lovely Monday.
