What Imran Khan’s 14-year prison sentence means for Pakistan

Good morning. Less than two years ago, Imran Khan was prime minister of Pakistan. Today, he sits in a Rawalpindi jail, facing 14 years in prison on corruption charges alongside his wife Bushra Bibi. In the general election on 8 February, three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif is expected to secure victory with the help of Pakistan’s powerful military leadership. Until two weeks ago, he was banned from political office for life.

That reversal is emblematic of Pakistan’s troubled democratic history. Khan, now 71, who once had the backing of the army himself, remains the most popular politician in the country; his sentencing alongside persistent claims of election interference casts serious doubt on the credibility of next week’s vote.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Dr Farzana Shaikh, author of Making Sense of Pakistan and an associate fellow at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, about Khan’s rise and fall – and what this week’s events mean for Pakistan’s chances of escaping the grip of intersecting political, economic and humanitarian crises. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘You can’t rule out that he’ll be back’

After the glories of his cricket career, Imran Khan launched Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – the Pakistan Movement for Justice – in 1996. For 16 years, he was the only member of the party to win a seat in parliament, and a figure of derision among Pakistan’s elite.

Then, as Emma Graham-Harrison outlines in this profile from last August, his fortunes changed. In the 2013 election, PTI made significant gains, and Khan eventually became prime minister in 2018, promising to build an effective welfare state and take on corruption.

Instead, Pakistan’s economy stuttered, ultimately leading to an IMF bailout, while several opposition party figures were jailed. Though Khan, an increasingly strident populist, and the army leadership denied it, he was widely seen as benefiting from military support: MPs allegedly came under pressure to join PTI, which also enjoyed preferential media treatment. “He was never a democrat,” said Farzana Shaikh. “He borrowed the discourse of anti-corruption and contempt for the political classes, from the military, who found a congenial figure to carry their ideology forward.”

How did that change?

Eventually, Khan fell out with the generals – first splitting over the state of the economy and foreign policy before Khan sought unsuccessfully to influence military appointments. “Ultimately, the issue was that he wanted to use the army’s support to strengthen his own political base,” Shaikh said. “The military would not tolerate that – and it still will not tolerate anyone seeking mastery over that discourse.”

In April 2022, Khan was ousted by a no-confidence vote. Last May, after a year-long campaign against the new government and accusations that the military was behind a failed assassination attempt, he was arrested on charges ranging from corruption to blasphemy.

Despite Khan’s own complex history, the sentences handed down this week – 14 years for selling on state gifts for an undeclared profit, and 10 years for leaking official secrets contained in a sensitive diplomatic cable – are “draconian”, Shaikh said. “As well as the haste with which the sentences were imposed, there is an absence of any due process. He was denied independent counsel, and tried in a jailhouse instead of open court.”

What impact will Khan’s sentences have on the elections?

As part of his sentence, Khan has also been barred from public office for a decade, and while PTI has made use of an AI version of Khan to call for support, he will not be able to campaign for his party’s candidates. Meanwhile, PTI hopefuls have had their nomination papers rejected in their thousands, and others have been detained after they protested his original arrest. And the party’s recognisable cricket bat symbol – crucial for voter recognition in a country where more than 40% of people are illiterate – will not be allowed on the ballot paper.

A Gallup poll published in January found that Khan remains the most popular politician in the country – although the gap to Nawaz Sharif (below), who now enjoys the army’s favour again after a period in exile in London, has narrowed considerably. So Khan’s removal from the equation looks like a crucial step towards ensuring Sharif’s return.

Sharif himself – whose brother Shehbaz has been prime minister since 2022 – was forced to step down over corruption charges in 2017, and then had to flee the country to avoid prison; you might wonder why he would put his faith in the military’s support once more. “People are looking on with trepidation and wondering whether he has learned from that experience,” Shaikh said. “There is a tendency for Pakistan’s political leaders to believe they can be the one to do better. But there is also speculation that Sharif is less interested in governing the country for the next five years than he is in clearing his name and vindicating himself because he was wronged.”

What does all this tell us about the state of democracy in Pakistan?

No Pakistani prime minister has completed a full five-year term since the country’s foundation in 1947, largely because the army has always exerted considerable political control even outside periods of explicit military rule. (This excellent episode of Today in Focus from last May reflects on why the army is so dominant.) “Pakistan is referred to not as a democracy, but as a hybrid democracy,” Shaikh said.

In a post on the Chatham House website yesterday, Shaikh noted that Sharif’s inability to galvanise support means that his victory could “only be secured through unacceptably high levels of election engineering” – and warned that “pre-poll rigging” could “lead to a turnout so low it raises questions about the representative credentials of a new government”.

Despite those anti-democratic factors, next week’s elections will mark the first time the country has voted in a civilian parliament three times in a row. “The question I am often asked is, why doesn’t the military simply seize power formally?” Shaikh added. “But this system suits it very well. It jealousy guards its prerogative over foreign policy, over the nuclear weapons programme, and the level of defence spending. No civilian government is prepared to wrestle with that in case it means summary removal.” Meanwhile, elected politicians “shoulder responsibility for anything that goes wrong, and protect the country from international sanctions.”

What next for Khan – and for Pakistan?

Despite the severity of his jail sentence, Khan’s story may not be over. “I’ve been observing Pakistani politics for a very long time,” Shaikh said. “Look at Sharif: it’s political musical chairs. You can’t rule out that Khan will be back.” The key relationship that soured, she added, was that between Khan and army chief General Asim Munir – whose tenure as intelligence chief was cut short by Khan. “Unless he receives an extension, which is not unheard of, Munir is due to retire next year. A new army chief could take a different view.”

In any case, and while he can still appeal his sentence, Khan is certainly out of contention next week. For ordinary Pakistanis, the dire political prognosis suggests that the country’s chances of dealing seriously with the crises on its plate are remote.

Inflation is at nearly 30%, and interest rates at 22%; the rate of child malnutrition has risen by 50% since the floods that devastated a third of the country and caused an estimated $30bn (£24bn) worth of damage in 2022; and there are meanwhile cross-border tensions with Iran, with air strikes on both sides in response to suspicion that each country is harbouring militant groups.

“There is a real danger of social unrest,” Shaikh said – and while many who protested Khan’s arrest have been cowed by the military’s subsequent crackdown, the economic crisis could be a new trigger point. “That could bring people out into the streets very soon. And that would then be harnessed by Khan’s supporters to galvanise his base once again.”

What else we’ve been reading

Laura Paddison’s report on a US mining company suing Mexico for protecting the seabed near the fishing town of San Juanico from dredging that would destroy marine life is fascinating. Nimo

Aditya Chakrabortty writes an almost-obituary for the Royal Mail (illustration above), and persuasively presents it as a parable for a broader national decline: the service has been “run down gradually for so long that the public can no longer rely upon it,” he writes. As a result, the collective response has been “a long sigh of resignation”. Archie

I found Blake Montgomery’s article on the moral neutrality of screen time reassuring: “The measure of whether you are living a good life is up to you – relationships, career, your own inner peace and happiness”, Montgomery writes. “The graph of the hours you’re using your phone is not that metric”. Nimo

Tony Naylor assembles a panel of restaurant industry experts to judge the new rules of restaurants, from charging “cakeage” to letting adults order from the kids’ menu. And yet still no one will address my fundamental opposition to sharing plates! Archie

For the wealthiest parents, it feels like the goalposts and rules for university admissions are constantly shifting. So what can they do, they fret, but throw even more money at the problem? Caitlin Moscatello spoke with Christopher Rim, an education consultant who charges $120,000 a year to give the kids of the uber-elite a sharper edge to get into their dream institutions. Nimo

Sport

Sport | An inspired goal-scoring performance from 20-year-old full-back Conor Bradley (above) helped Liverpool to rout Chelsea 4-1 and restore a five-point lead atop the table before they visit third-placed Arsenal on Sunday. Manchester City eased to a 3-1 win over Burnley and moved up again to second, ahead of Arsenal on goal difference. After a poor first half, Spurs recovered to beat Brentford 3-2.

Golf | The PGA Tour has unveiled a $3bn (£2.35bn) deal with a consortium led by the owners of Liverpool FC that will handsomely reward players such as Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods who resisted the overtures of LIV Golf. The creation of a new commercial entity, PGA Tour Enterprises, will give players $1.5bn in immediate and future equity.

Cricket | The women’s game is to undergo a huge shake-up under plans from the England and Wales Cricket Board in which ownership of teams would be transferred back to the first-class counties. The counties will take direct responsibility for over­seeing and growing eight regional teams currently owned by the ECB.

The front pages

“MPs demand £4bn bailout for councils in cash crisis” – that’s our Guardian print lead. “Post Office hero turns down ‘derisory’ payout” says the Daily Telegraph. The Daily Mirror has “Change the law” – a plea from mothers to increase jail terms for domestic violence killers. “Get back to basics, police told” – that’s the Times. The Daily Mail goes with “I’ve been driven out of politics by death threats – for supporting Israel” which is about Mike Freer, a Tory justice minister. “5,600 migrants identified for first Rwanda flights” – the Daily Express sounds a bit like it’s promoting a travel giveaway. Top story in the Financial Times is “Fast-track legislation to end two-year political limbo for Northern Ireland”. The Metro splashes on “Crossbow stalker scandal” and the i says “40,000 XL Bullies beat the ban – as police tell public to call 101 for unmuzzled dogs”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Though small-scale farming has been on the decline in Norway for many years, a new generation has started finding the beauty in it. One such person is Rakel Nystabakk (above), a 35-year-old musician who moved back to her father’s sheep farm with her wife.

“A part of me was always here,” she says. Nystabakk is the fourth generation of her family to run the farm, and is confident she can keep it going. Having animals precludes any lie-ins, which can be hard, “but most of the time I love to come out and see the sheep and be outside and know that my ancestors have been doing this on these same fields for generations before me”.

For more on Nystabakk’s story, watch this Guardian documentary released this week.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

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