| The supreme leader’s non-committal observation that the attack should “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated” is fairly typical of the man, Shabani said. “Khamenei has always been very wary about taking clear decisions. He understands that to remain as supreme leader, you need to be a supreme follower, as well.” While Khamenei is conservative, “he has always preferred to work with a reformist civilian administration.” Until president Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash in May, “it was difficult for Khamenei – all of the branches of power were dominated by his camp, and there was often not a face-saving way out.” That may be part of why he accepted reformist Masoud Pezeshkian as president after Raisi: “if an opposing power centre holds some authority, if they have success, great – if they fail, it’s ‘I told you so’.” Khamenei’s stance is therefore unsurprising – but it is implausible to claim that the nature of a response is merely a tactical military matter. “He’s the micromanager in chief,” Shabani said. “He sounds like he’s just an observer – but he’s the commander in chief of the Iranian armed forces.” Pezeshkian struck a similar note yesterday, saying that Iran would “give an appropriate response” and that the country does not seek war. It may be that these remarks can be understood as a sign of caution. But they are also clearly framed in a way that leaves everything on the table. Why has the exchange played out so slowly? One striking feature of the tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran is how slowly they have developed. So far, each side has taken time over its response to moves by the other – a timeline that may make it seem that the escalation is under a measure of control. But, Shabani argued, that view may be based on a misapplied western conception of how war unfolds. He pointed to a post on X from Murtaza Hussain of Drop Site News: “The modern western style of war is based on ‘shock and awe’ style operations with short timeframes. The opposing style is based on long attritional warfare. This is why Russia deemed prematurely to fail in Ukraine and Israeli wars in Gaza and Lebanon nowhere near a horizon.” Iran may therefore not feel that speed is a necessary component of a significant response, which suggests that claims Khamenei has shown caution could be at best premature. “Perhaps Iran will act faster this time,” Shabani said. “But if they don’t, we know that it can still take place. And my view would be that given the extent of what happened, they are likely to believe that it is difficult to not respond.” Is the region now closer to an all-out war? “The million-dollar question is where the tipping point lies for major retaliation,” Shabani said. “We don’t know the answer to that.” As to Iranian public opinion, “I don’t think people in Iran want war – I don’t think people in Israel do either. There has been a flurry of nationalist messages on social media saluting the dead soldiers, but that doesn’t mean that is what normal people think. But perhaps they are a little more ready for war than they were 48 hours ago.” One frightening variable in assessing all of this is the danger that the significant damage to Iran’s conventional defences may strengthen the hand of those in Tehran who make the case for building a nuclear weapon. That might take 18 months to complete, but any progress would be almost certain to trigger a more intense conflict, drawing in the United States. “Weaponising the nuclear programme is the one game-changer at Iran’s disposal,” Shabani said. “Of course Iran doesn’t want war with the United States, but there will be those who question whether that is really still a choice, and who say that it is already paying the price for a bomb it hasn’t built yet.” Even short of that calamity, Shabani’s prognosis is gloomy. “This will not be the last attack,” he said. “It’s become normalised now. And when these things happen and people see that actually it doesn’t lead to a cataclysm, you are on a slippery slope – that instead of waking up at war one morning through shock and awe, you slide into it by attrition. If that happens, it is a lose-lose game.” | 