Edgy about the future of the US economy, not least due to the president’s tariff extravaganza, investors will look for clues in every bit of data they get their hands on. The main one to scrutinize: the monthly payroll figure. That’ll show the state of the jobs market, indicating the health of the economy at large. Economists expect next Friday’s report to show the economy created 180,000 jobs in February, higher than January’s 143,000. The unemployment rate is predicted to stay steady at 4%, while average hourly wages are slated to increase by 0.3% compared to last month.
The US manufacturing PMI for February will be released on Monday. If you remember, the measure rose to 50.9 in January. That’s the first time the factory sector tipped past the 50 mark – which indicates expansion – after 26 months of shrinking. Economists think it’ll stay in the positive range in February, but some say that could just be a short-lived bounce before new tariffs come into effect.
You’ll also want to check out the prices manufacturers paid to get a read on inflation, as well as the count of their new orders. The measure of their prices paid made a sharp jump to 54.9 last month, a worrying sign for stateside inflation. No wonder the Federal Reserve seems cautious about making more cuts to the interest rate.
European February inflation reading is expected to come in at 2.3% on Monday, which would be a fall from January’s 2.5% and a welcome change from the upticks seen over recent months. That would further justify the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its January meeting, the fifth trim since June. The last cut pushed the key deposit rate down to 2.75%, its lowest level since early 2023. And, expecting inflation to keep headed toward the 2% target, the central bank is expected to reduce that rate again on Thursday from 2.75% to 2.5%.
