| Don’t panic All out trade war is in effect after US President Donald Trump announced 125 per cent tariffs on goods imported from China, and Beijing promising to ‘fight to the end’ having earlier imposed retaliatory import taxes of 84 per cent.
Yet elsewhere, Trump’s shock temporary hiatus on tariffs has seen a major rebound across global stock markets.
Asia’s indexes shot up on Thursday, while the S&P index ended the day 9.5 per cent higher and the FTSE 100 came out of the traps up 6 per cent.
White House officials claim "this was [Trump’s] strategy all along" and demonstrated "the art of the deal", but while rising markets are good news, uncertainty persists and who knows when Trump will change his mind again.
Consequently, portfolio managers are warning investors to beware "false rallies".
Stuart Clark at Quilter Investors, says some market participants are getting "a tad over optimistic" that tariffs will be fleeting and somehow negotiated away by countries willing to give in to Trump’s aggressive trade tactics.
And he adds that now is not the time to "sniff out a bargain" on the stock markets.
As ever, the usual message is that investors should not panic, and stay focused on the long-term.
But this week we bring you views on the private markets, populated by those with typically long investment spans, where commentators express concern about the impact tariffs will have.
Scott Voss, Senior Market Strategist at private markets specialist HarbourVest, says: "We need only look at global public markets to understand the implications [of tariffs]. As financial investors, public markets are our barometer. Private markets, with their longer durations, will dampen the volatility seen in public markets but are subject to the same underlying uncertainties."
2025 research from Aviva Investors finds globally, private markets assets account for 11.5 per cent of institutional investor portfolios; up from 10.5 per cent last year.
North America remains the biggest investor in private markets globally by proportion, with 12.4 per cent of portfolios allocated to such strategies, compared to 11.5 per cent in Asia-Pacific and 11.1 per cent in Europe.
These allocations reflect the desire to diversify their portfolios, a key tenet of risk management. Yet should large-scale implementation of tariffs trigger another bout of inflation or other macroeconomic headwinds, private equity would face the same challenges as the wider economy.
However, there is strong optimism that private equity managers will survive.
Ralph Eissler, Head of Private Markets Research for one says: "PE managers appear able to weather turbulence in their portfolios while poised to make opportunistic acquisitions as they come along."
Taking a much-needed break from Trump, we bring you a thought piece from Gabi Slemer, Investment Director at Octopus Investments, who reminds readers of the opportunities in natural capital.
Over half of global GDP – roughly GDP44 trillion – depends on natural systems, and these are under threat from a host of climate change related events.
Slemer notes: "Now is the time to reaffirm the relationship between nature and the economy, recognising that sustainable growth depends on preserving our natural assets."
Finally, news that active equity specialist ECP Asset Management is expanding into the European wealth markets in Switzerland and the Nordics, as well as the Middle East to complement its UK and Ireland operations.
The decision, according to Ryan Rajkumar, Principal, Distribution, EMEA at ECP Asset Management, is driven by the "particularly strong opportunities in the Swiss, Nordic and Middle Eastern wealth markets for high-conviction, idiosyncratic global equity exposure".
I’m sure they’ll be hoping the tariffs don’t derail their plans.
Gill Wadsworth, Editor, Institutional Asset Manager
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