🎁 Inside Amazon's delivery

What’s going on here?

Amazon reported better-than-expected results, but investors decided to leave the ecommerce giant out on the doorstep.

What does this mean?

Sure, Amazon saw its revenue climb 10% to $188 billion and its bottom line nearly double, with both beating forecasts. But investors weren’t celebrating: Amazon Web Services’s (AWS) growth slowed, and the firm’s forecasts for the current period were borderline tepid. That’s an issue. Amazon’s stock has been riding high on two things, see – the firm’s AWS strength and its cost-savings. Now, both are being tested. With AI spending ramping up even as profit growth decelerates, investors are being faced with a nagging question: will that spending ever pay off? Along with shaping Amazon’s future, the answer could define the fate of valuations across Big Tech – and the S&P 500.

Why should I care?

For markets: Unknown unknowns.

Not to rouse your fear of the unknown or anything, but legendary short-seller Jim Chanos says the biggest risks facing US stocks are “unpredictable events”. By definition, it’s impossible to tell what those might be. But rather than interest rates, inflation, or geopolitics, such an event could look more like the launch of ChatGPT – or DeepSeek’s recent sudden rank-climbing.

For you personally: Hope for the best, invest for the worst.

You can’t predict the unpredictable. But you can try to protect your portfolio from those unexpected bumps. For starters, you’ll want to exercise caution when it comes to pricey stocks – especially if their valuations are built on best-case scenarios. Instead, consider less popular investments that are priced based on neutral or cautious expectations. There’s just more room for their fortunes to change for the better – which would bring yours along, too. And, as always, spread your bets: diversifying across different regions, sectors, and asset classes lowers your risk of being wiped out by any single event.

What’s going on here?

In a break from his previous tack, the US president isn’t pressuring the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates: he’s trying to lower the 10-year Treasury yield instead.

What does this mean?

The Treasury yield dictates the return investors get from lending the government money. And when it falls, banks tend to make a whole host of loans – including mortgages and corporate debt – cheaper. The result: Americans feel better about their finances and spend more, while the government enjoys a lighter interest bill. Only, the yield is set by the market – not the government. What the president can do is make other changes to try to bring it down indirectly. Things like drilling more oil to make energy cheaper, tweaking the maturity of bonds issued, and reducing the budget deficit. But that’s all much easier said than done.

Why should I care?

For markets: The UK chose a different route.

The Bank of England (BoE) lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday – its third cut since August. And with two of the central bank’s nine voting members pushing for a bigger, half-a-point trim, there could be more to come. You can’t blame the BoE for erring on the side of caution, though: slice rates too much, and it’d risk letting inflation run wild.

The bigger picture: More roads, better parks, or short-form videos.

The US president signed an executive order on Monday, directing the Treasury to plan the country’s first-ever sovereign wealth fund. That’s a type of investment fund that countries use to invest in themselves, with the intention of bettering life for future generations. As far as the president’s concerned, that means more national projects, infrastructure, and… buying TikTok, potentially. Looks like money won’t be an obstacle: the US plans to bankroll the fund with some of its $5.7 trillion worth of federal assets, as well as money made from tariffs.