Inflation Data Keeps Low Rate Hopes Alive

The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's target level, it wasn't the triumph it might have been. Even so, rates managed to move lower. Mortgage rates and, indeed, most rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market. Bond yields/rates move higher when inflation is high, and the market has been waiting on signs of lower inflation before trading in a way that allows interest rates to move lower. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the biggest name in monthly inflation reports. It's caused big reactions in rates many times over the past few years. In recent months, it's been showing more and more promise regarding a return to inflation levels that would allow for significantly lower rates. But CPI has given false hope before, so traders are wary. This week's report definitely stopped short of providing resounding confirmation that inflation is defeated. That said, it didn't send any signals that were too troubling either. With that in mind, it's not too surprising that rates actually didn't move much in response to CPI. If anything, the initial impulse was toward slightly higher rates. It wasn't until the following day's Producer Price Index (PPI) that bond traders saw better evidence of calmer inflation. Both CPI and PPI have been moving lower, but PPI is now all the way back down to target levels.

January 12, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Inflation Data Keeps Low Rate Hopes Alive The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's target level, it wasn't the triumph it might have been. Even so, rates managed to move lower. Mortgage r... (read more) MBS Commentary PPI Succeeding Where CPI Failed PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level. It is not known or respected as being a reliable or significant market mover, but sometimes it makes a dent. Today is one of those times, likely because PPI was at leas... (read more) Rob Chrisman Data Mining, Fair Lending, Tech Stack Products; Ginnie Stats; STRATMOR Ops Workshop; LO Comp and Profitability I received this call yesterday from an LO friend. “Rob, I was talking to my ‘hair-apist’ last night, and I was telling her about how our industry has been a real roller coaster in terms of income for people and companies. People need their hair cut r... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.69% -0.03% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.95% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.98% -0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.19% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.02% -0.08 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 1/12 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.95% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.66% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.87% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/11 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% +0.05 0.61 15 Yr. Fixed 6.41% +0.15 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.98% +0.12 0.43 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/10 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.53 +0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.53 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 101.34 -0.14 GNMA 5.5 100.86 +0.19 GNMA 6.0 101.44 -0.22 Pricing as of: 1/12 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.9450 -0.0300 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.152 -0.097 5 YR Treasury 3.839 -0.049 7 YR Treasury 3.895 -0.041 10 YR Treasury 3.945 -0.030 30 YR Treasury 4.180 -0.001 Pricing as of: 1/12 5:31PM EST Latest Video Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman: The Fed will have to move early, can certa... Breaking down big bank earnings Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in December in positive inflation s... March is 'too early' for the Fed to start cutting rates, says BMO's Yung-Yu... Around the Web Reuters Fed reports steep paper loss for 2023 amid surge in interest expenses Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December Eye on Housing Building Materials Price Growth Plummets in 2023 CNBC Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in December in positive inflation sign CFPB CFPB Addresses Inaccurate Background Check Reports and Sloppy Credit File Sharing Practices Eye on Housing Housing Costs Persist in Driving Inflation Higher Marketwatch Fed's Mester says March is probably too early for rate cut forexlive Fed's Goolsbee: December services inflation was a little more favorable than expected Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 Calculated Risk Blog Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.3% to 2.2% Range CNBC U.S. deficit tops half a trillion dollars in the first quarter of fiscal year Marketwatch Treasury yields remain steady to lower after hot December CPI inflation data Calculated Risk Blog AAR: December Carloads and Intermodal Up YoY

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