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| Friday, September 13, 2024 |
| Thank you for all of your feedback -- I received over 200 replies from FFT Newsletter readers to my Week 2 'In The Lab' Google form! Here's who you wanted to hear about the most: |
| (I won't have time to get to every player today, but I did want to give you a glimpse of where the community's curiosity is at after Week 1.) |
| QB -- Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson |
| RB -- Bucky Irving, James Cook, Aaron Jones |
| WR -- Jameson Williams, Drake London, Chris Olave |
| TE -- Mark Andrews, Colby Parkinson, Brock Bowers |
| Good stuff! Let's put these topics under a microscope! |
| And when you have time, the podcast that I recorded with Dan Schneier of FFT and Danny Kelly of the Ringer Fantasy Football Show today was fantastic. You can find the most recent Beyond the Box Score episode here. |
| In The Lab -- Week 2 |
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| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: KYLER MURRAY |
| Drew Petzing might have something special cooking out in the desert |
| The Week 1 performance for Marvin Harrison Jr. was certainly a disappointment. You can watch every route that he ran in his debut right here. Kyler Murray's showing left something to be desired as well. You can check out the underlying metrics for Murray in Week 1 in this QB Mega Thread. Murray was not at his best in Week 1. He wasn't very accurate, even though he was regularly turning down the deep ball. |
| Still, after putting the Week 1 Cardinals film under the microscope, I'm really intrigued by what might be developing. |
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| You can watch every pull-lead run here. |
| Arizona didn't seem to execute these runs all that well in Week 1. It felt like they came close to setting the edge for a big run several times, though. Rookie RB Trey Benson rushed three times in Week 1, all were Pull-Lead attempts. |
| I introduce the topic of Kyler Murray with this note on Pull-Lead runs because I think that this run game change may have the potential to unlock new things for Arizona's QB and offense as a whole. The speed threat posed by Benson (4.39) and Murray in read options while the play develops and pullers get out in space is so intriguing. Murray only kept the read option and rushed once in this game, but we could see him hold the ball more often if Arizona finds more success on these run plays and defenses begin to adjust and send extra attention to the pull-lead run side of the field, leaving the weakside more open for Murray to exploit with his speed. |
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| Better days ahead for Arizona's passing game? |
| As far as the Arizona passing game goes, I am not overly concerned. The best iteration of this offense, in my opinion, involves Harrison Jr. presenting a massive threat to opposing defenses as a dominant outside weapon who can consistently win against individual coverage. Nate Tice speculated that the reason we saw Buffalo using so much "cloud coverage" and two-high safety defensive looks in Week 1 was the threat presented on the outside by Harrison. At the collegiate level, MHJ was double-teamed more than any WR prospect that Matt Harmon has evaluated. I think that the best version of this offense involves MHJ demanding defensive attention and leaving the short and intermediate area of the field open for Trey McBride to rumble. McBride was one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL at converting first downs in 2023, and if defenses can't focus on him, he's going to feast. You can watch all of McBride's Week 1 targets here. He and Murray just missed on a couple of connections. |
| Buffalo's defense has played extremely well through two weeks, too. The Dolphins couldn't get anything going against the inexperienced Bills secondary in Week 2. Sean McDermott is one of the best defensive playcallers alive. I am not overreacting to Arizona's slow start in the passing game. |
| I came into the season with Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels ranked ahead of Murray, and that's still how I feel after Week 1. If you felt convicted that Murray was a better Fantasy bet, I don't think we saw anything in Week 1 that should change that. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Arizona Cardinals |
Week 2 -- Los Angeles Rams
Week 3 -- Detroit Lions
Week 4 -- Washington Commanders |
| Three straight home matchups await the Cardinals, with two coming against exploitable opposing defenses. This sure feels like the time to buy Cardinals players in Fantasy. |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: JAYDEN DANIELS
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| The replies to this tweet perfectly encapsulate where we're at with Washington's offense after one week. |
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| It's important to know that Daniels faced one of the most blitz-heavy defenses out there. Only the Broncos blitzed more than the Bucs in Week 1. |
| Will this offense work, or is this truly just a Fantasy cheat code situation? |
| Beyond the obvious -- Daniels is a rushing cheat code who will rush even more when pressured -- I don't have a whole lot to add. Kliff Kingsbury's offense is so gimmicky that it's hard to find a lot of takeaways from what we saw in Week 1. This is the most static offense in the NFL; the receivers remain lined up on the same side for the majority of plays, and there's very little pre-snap motion. It feels predictable, and that's almost never a good thing in the NFL. I don't feel confident that the offense will work for real-life purposes. If you want to sell high on Daniels before the wheels fall off, that might be the move. My plan is to hold and get as many 20+ Fantasy point performances as I can. Maybe it lasts all year, and he's a league-winner! If anyone comes knocking with a trade offer that blows me away, I'll consider it. But I'm not going out of my way to trade away what may well be the highest-scoring Fantasy player in existence in the year 2024. |
| Here's a look at the passing chart and other underlying metrics for Daniels in his first start. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Washington Commanders |
Week 2 -- New York Giants
Week 3 -- Cincinnati Bengals on the road
Week 4 -- Arizona Cardinals on the road |
| New York's defense feels like it is being slept on. Dexter Lawrence was an absolute menace in Week 1. Brian Burns is one of the few rushers who might be capable of tracking Daniels down on some scrambles. Still, the Commanders have a healthy 23-point implied team total. That's the 12th-highest total, ahead of the Jaguars, Colts, and Buccaneers, to name a few. |
| After a home matchup vs. the Giants, Washington draws two fantastic matchups against the Bengals and Cardinals defenses. It's totally realistic -- I'd propose, likely, even -- that Daniels might be the highest-scoring Fantasy player at any position after one month of football. |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: BUCKY IRVING
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| You can watch all of Bucky Irving's Week 1 rushes here. He looked like the same stud runner that we watched this preseason, even in his first taste of NFL regular season defense. |
| In this week's Beyond the Boxscore deep dive, the first topic that Dan and I hit on was the Bucky Irving and Rachaad White dynamic in Tampa's backfield. The underlying rush scheme data from Week 1 is very interesting. I think it's possible that Irving fits better with the direction that new offensive coordinator Liam Coen wants to take this run game. The Buccaneers were under center for a league-high 80% of rush attempts in Week 1. Rachaad White was better when running out of the shotgun in college, and that has carried over to his time as a pro. |
| Do you hear that? The steady drumbeat of positive Bucky Irving practice reports has been building for months. |
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| We may see Bucky Irving take a lead role as a rusher in this offense soon. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Week 2 -- Detroit Lions on the road
Week 3 -- Denver Broncos
Week 4 -- Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 3 vs. Denver might be the Bucky breakout game. The Broncos are one of the league's worst tackling units, and that's a home game where Tampa may build a big lead. |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: JAMES COOK |
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| James Cook is awesome. He's also probably the best sell-high in all of Fantasy football land |
| James Cook was 17th in expected Fantasy points (FantasyPoints Data model) at the RB position in Week 1, in a game where he saw three red zone rushes (his career-high is four) and two inside-the-10 rushes (his career-high is three). The problem for Cook has been and remains a lack of targets and scoring opportunities. He ran a route on less than half of Buffalo's dropbacks in both games and has four total targets through two games. |
| RB17 feels about right for Cook from a Fantasy-point scoring opportunity standpoint. He has the talent to push for more than that, and it is worth noting that his red zone snap rate is up from 43% in 2023 to 58% in 2024. |
| We saw touchdown variance swing Cook's way in Week 2, and he is going to be one of the highest Fantasy scorers at RB after Week 2 is complete. This feels like the time to explore trades. Maybe you can turn Cook into Jonathan Taylor or Jahmyr Gibbs. If Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson have a disappointing Week 1, it might not take much added onto Cook in a trade offer to get one of those two. That seems unbelievable, but people panic if the manager who rosters Robinson is staring down an 0-2 record, who knows where their head will be at. |
| This feels like the time to trade Cook if you can get a massive return for him. Week 2 was his second straight with a soft matchup. The next month brings a brutal stretch of opposing defenses: |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Buffalo Bills |
Week 3 -- Jacksonville
Week 4 -- Baltimore Ravens on the road
Week 5 -- Houston Texans on the road
Week 6 -- New York Jets on the road |
| You can find Cook's full Week 1 profile in the RB Mega Thread. |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: JAMESON WILLIAMS
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| Wow. My guy Dan Schneier nailed this call. I believe that both Dan and Adam Aizer expected an expanded role for Williams in Year 3. What we saw from him in Week 1 truly checked every box in terms of an optimal role that I could have envisioned. You can watch a breakdown of his Week 1 route tree here. |
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| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Detroit Lions |
Week 2 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3 -- Arizona Cardinals on the road
Week 4 -- Seattle Seahawks
Week 5 BYE |
| It's entirely possible that the Week 1 target total for Williams remains his season-high. It's hard to imagine the Lions going away from Amon-Ra St. Brown as the offensive centerpiece, and this is likely going to be a relatively run-heavy offense at its core, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery chewing up yardage on the ground. Oh yeah, there's also that Sam LaPorta guy who was historically good as a rookie tight end. There are a lot of mouths to feed, and Ben Johnson just may be able to pull it off. I don't expect that we'll see Williams as the focal point all that often, but if Johnson is able to continue to get Williams running routes vs. linebackers, it might only take a handful of targets for Jamo to put big scores on the board. |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: CHRIS OLAVE |
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| You can watch every Chris Olave route run in Week 1. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the New Orleans Saints |
Week 2 -- Cowboys on the road
Week 3 -- Philadelphia Eagles
Week 4 -- Atlanta Falcons on the road |
| With a difficult upcoming schedule, we may have an extended window to buy Olave low. I detailed why I am excited about his long-term outlook here. |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: MARK ANDREWS
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| That dang, Steve Spagnuolo did it again! |
| According to Nathan Jahnke, Mark Andrews saw double coverage at a higher rate in Week 1 than at any point across the 2021-23 seasons. |
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| Wild stuff. Spags is so unbelievably good at his job. |
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| According to the Fantasy Points Data team, Andrews posted the highest average separation score on his routes of any tight end in Week 1. My guess is that he will be totally fine for Fantasy purposes. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Baltimore Ravens |
Week 2 -- Las Vegas Raiders
Week 3 -- Dallas Cowboys on the road
Week 4 -- Buffalo Bills |
| That's it for today! If you want to give me feedback on our first 'In The Lab' installment, go to this Google form and scroll to the bottom. There's an area there where you can give longer-form general feedback. I'd love to hear from you as we continue to grow and shape this space together. I hope that today's 'ITL' was helpful! |
| If you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff! And if you want to learn about what went into one of the grossest weeks in recent history at the quarterback position, I created a thread detailing each quarterback's underlying Week 1 information. |
| I also created a RB mega-thread if you want to learn more about some of the underlying information that contributes to the end result at the Fantasy RB position. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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