| |
|
| Friday, October 11, 2024 |
| In The Lab -- Week 6 |
| |
| Week 6 topics: |
Drake Maye
Chase Brown
Tank Dell
Tucker Kraft |
| Welcome to the lab. |
| In case you missed it, I just recorded a dope podcast with Dan Schneier of FFT, Scott Barrett, and Ryan Heath of Data.Fantasypoints.com. |
| You can find the most recent Beyond the Box Score episode here! |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: DRAKE MAYE |
| For Fantasy purposes, for now, at least, Drake Maye's appeal is almost entirely predicated on rushing. And the rushing upside is exciting enough that I aggressively targeted Maye this draft season. He was one of my favorite bench stashes in all of Fantasy. A first career start against the Houston Texans defense is absolutely brutal, but Maye's rushing contributions might be enough to make him somewhat matchup-proof. We'll see. |
| |
| |
| Only Jayden Daniels scrambled more than Maye when under pressure in college. If you read Wednesday's matchup notes, you realize how important of a note that is for this week's matchup. We may see double-digit rush attempts from Maye in this game. |
| As for passing contributions, I want to make sure to temper expectations in Week 6. |
| Houston Texans defensive game log in 2024: |
| |
| Season-long passing expectations |
| There's no way around it; the infrastructure is not encouraging. The Patriots rank 32nd in play action rate and 25th in pre-snap motion, so we aren't seeing much of the pass-game efficiency boosters being used in Alex Van Pelt's offense. |
| The run game has been decent. Rushing effectively has not been a problem. In fact, on runs coming out of the red zone on first or second down, the Pats rank 12th in success rate. I chose those specific runs because the problem for this offense has been converting on third downs and actually getting to the red zone. The Pats rank 25th in red zone drives per game. Only the Chargers and Broncos have higher "three and out" rates than New England. A whopping 43% of New England's drives have been three plays and a punt. |
| The problem has been third downs. The Pats have the third-highest sack rate, often killing drives. This Maye be a problem. Among 28 quarterbacks selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft since 2017, Maye ranks 22nd in sack-to-pressure rate. He often creates negative plays by attempting to extend plays. Maybe his heroics are what the Pats need, but I wonder if Maye is even going to find anyone open on improvised plays out of the pocket. |
| My hope is that the Pats can continue to run the ball effectively on early downs, and Maye will inject a bit of life into New England's third downs. The Pats have an unusually high third-down dropback rate (fifth in the NFL) compared to the 28th-ranked dropback rate on early downs. Again, they're running the ball successfully on early downs. The Pats actually have an average distance to gain on third downs that is better than the NFL average. I don't know why they've been so pass-happy on third downs. But that's how Van Pelt's called it, he has asked the passing game to win and extend drives on third downs and has found no success. Maybe Maye's playmaking ability helps! Of course, it's never ideal to surrender yards in a game of field positioning, but the Pats might take the trade-off of additional third-down sacks if it means more trips to the red zone. |
| Will Maye find any open receivers? |
| Rookie Ja'Lynn Polk seems like the best hope, which is never a situation that you want to find yourself in as a QB. For what it's worth, the Fantasy Points Data Suite's charting team believes that Polk is consistently winning his routes. His "win rate" is the third-highest among NFL players with 50+ routes run. Below, you'll see where Polk ranks in terms of "average separation score." |
| |
| I highlighted the +1, +2, and +3 Rates because those effectively encapsulate what type of route-runner Polk is. |
| |
| In this article, you can read about the methodology behind each grade and find video examples of each type of route, win or loss. |
| Polk has earned "+1 grades" at the single highest rate among players with 50+ routes run. He has hardly any big wins but is presenting an open target consistently. |
| Polk has been playing more snaps than any Patriots receiver lately, and it's possible that he'll present a consistent target for Mate to lock in on. My only other potential hope for Maye is Demario Douglas. Maybe Hunter Henry can be a contributor, but his average separation score is way down from last year. "Pop" Douglas is the Patriots route-runner who pops in ESPN's Open Score. He ranks 19th among qualified players in 2024 after an impressive showing as a rookie. In the Fantasy Points Data Suite, you can filter to only include throws that came out of the pocket. On those plays, Douglas has a separation score that almost matches Polk's. Maybe he ends up being an improvisational target for Maye, who can shake a man coverage defender or find a hole in zone coverage. |
| The most likely outcome for Maye doesn't involve a whole lot of passing success in Year 1. For Fantasy purposes, we're betting on the rushing. We're betting on a Justin Fields in Chicago type of outcome. |
| |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: CHASE BROWN |
| Chase Brown won't have the backfield to himself in Week 6, but he has enough momentum at this point that I'm still projecting him to lead the Bengals in rushing attempts and Fantasy points. He has been excellent as a rusher, and the Bengals have slowly loaded his plate with more and more. |
| Brown's RB rush share by week: |
Week 1 -- 25%
Week 2 -- 25%
Week 3 -- 37%
Week 4 -- 50%
Week 5 -- 57% |
| |
| Brown has done enough as a rusher to earn more and more playing time, but his overall playing time likely remains capped if the Bengals won't trust him to handle passing-down duties. Brown has two pass-blocking snaps all season, compared to 32 for Moss. His passing down snap rate has not increased at all as the season has progressed. And the Bengals want to pass. Cincy ranks seventh in pass rate and fourth in situation-neutral (score within seven points) pass rate. |
| In my mind, Brown profiles similarly to Tank Bigsby for Fantasy purposes. Bigsby has three total pass-blocking snaps this season. The Jaguars pass the ball less than the Bengals, so there's maybe potential for Bigsby to get on the field more than Brown, but there's also less potential for rushing touchdowns than in a Bengals offense that is clicking at the moment. |
| What we've seen from Brown as a rusher is certainly exciting. He's one of the biggest Fantasy risers at the RB position over the past month. I'm not sure how high he can really fly, though. It would have been really insightful to have seen what type of role the Bengals would have used him in without Moss active in Week 6, but it sounds as if both backs will suit up. Just because he has not been trusted to play passing downs early in the season, Brown is in no way precluded from having his role expanded. I'm projecting that type of increased trust between player and team for Tyrone Tracy, for example. Maybe the same potential exists for Brown. For now, he's only being trusted to run the ball. He's doing that quite well. |
| |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: TANK DELL |
| Tank Dell has not looked like the same player that we saw torching defenses in 2023. Matt Harmon even said so, and his evaluation on wide receiver play is my most trusted resource. |
| Has he been as bad as his 2024 data might indicate, though? Both ESPN tracking data and Fantasy Points Data's separation charting grades still portray Dell as a well-above-average wide receiver. |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| As a rookie, Dell had a 22% first-read target rate. In one game played without Nico Collins, Dell's rate was 45%. |
| |
| Dell is probably one of the best buy-lows in Fantasy. It's possible that he finds his 2023 form at some point along the way. Tony Pollard said that he didn't feel like himself until midway through the season. What we've seen from Dell early in the season isn't necessarily what we'll see from him all year. If he finds his footing and establishes momentum with Stroud on downfield strikes with Collins sidelined, maybe we see Dell emerge as something similar to his rookie season form to close out his sophomore season. And if not, I doubt that you are going to have to give up much Dell in a trade, so the opportunity cost is low. |
| |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: TUCKER KRAFT |
| Tucker Kraft is a lot of fun. He plays with immense physicality and heart, truly appearing to leave it all out on the field. And lately, he's been a Fantasy contributor at a tight end position that is barren. |
| In 2023, Kraft played behind fellow rookie Luke Musgrave. In 2024, he overtook Musgrave, and his sophomore TE companion appears likely to hit the I.R. this week. Kraft is playing nearly every offensive snap for the Packers, and we saw that role materialize into nine targets when Green Bay went pass-heavy in Week 4. Last week, he only saw five targets but was able to turn two of them into catch-and-run touchdowns. |
| What can we expect from Kraft going forward? He enjoyed a productive receiving career as a South Dakota State Jack Rabbit but was thought of as more of a blocking prospect than a receiving contributor at the NFL level. I dug into the Fantasy Points Data Suite to get a better idea of Kraft's peripherals in his second season as a pro. What I found was not encouraging. |
| Kraft ranks last among 42 qualified tight ends in route "win rate." That's not what you wanna see, especially in conjunction with an 11% first-read target rate. Even without Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs last week, Kraft's first-read target rate was just 19%. Maybe there's a reason that Matt LaFleur isn't being intentional about involving Kraft in the passing game. |
| I looked into 2023 tight end data to see if there were any players with low route win rates who might inspire some confidence for Kraft's (2.9% win rate) outlook. David Njoku (6.4%) and Jake Ferguson (8.4%) appear to be the model. Njoku wins with YAC, maybe there is more of that in Kraft's future. He's not the type of explosive athlete that Njoku is, though. Ferguson is probably the better comparison, but Kraft faces much more target competition. |
| Like Ferguson, Kraft is on the field all the time and could find his way into the end zone several times in an offense that could produce 30+ passing touchdowns. I have a tough time projecting any type of yardage upside, though, with just an 11% first-read target rate. Ferguson's first-read target rate is 21.3%. |
| If you believe in Njoku, Ferguson, or any underachieving TE and can turn Kraft into them, that makes sense to me. I don't see a path to upside that doesn't involve multiple WR injuries. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
| |
| | | | | NFL | | Big Ten on CBS | The top of the NFC East meets the top of the AFC North and so much more for this CBS Sports Sunday! Watch your local game live beginning at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Penn State travels to the West Coast in hopes of continuing their undefeated season in a matchup against USC this Saturday at 3:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
