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| Friday, October 4, 2024 |
| In The Lab -- Week 5 |
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| Week 5 topics: |
Justin Fields
De'Von Achane
Bijan Robinson
Xavier Worthy (the NFL's leader in 'go' route rate)
Travis Kelce
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| Welcome to the lab. |
| In case you missed it, I just recorded a dope podcast with Dan Schneier of FFT and Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics. You can find the most recent Beyond the Box Score episode here! |
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| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: JUSTIN FIELDS |
| Through one month of football, Justin Fields is the QB6 in Fantasy, even with uncharacteristically low rushing production. In three seasons with Chicago, Fields averaged 8.2, 10.3, and 8.4 yards per scramble. In 2024, he's averaging only 5.6 yards per scramble. |
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| I dug into his rushing and did not see anything that stood out as a reason for the decreased efficiency. In this twitter thread, I outlined what I found. You can also watch all of his scrambles in that thread. And one final note that wasn't included in the thread: Fields is operating out of the shotgun slightly less in 2024. Fewer shotgun snaps may impact his rushing efficiency. |
| Fields has seemingly matured as a passer and seems likely to hold onto the starting job if what we've seen in the first month is any indication of what we can expect going forward. He's one of the most interesting players in Fantasy. Depending on your risk tolerance, Fields might be worth pursuing in trades. It's possible that he's still undervalued. |
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| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: DE'VON ACHANE |
| After shattering every rushing efficiency record known to man as a rookie, Achane is averaging 3.1 yards per carry in Year 2. It's not just his baseline statistics, the underlying stuff is ghastly too. D'Andre Swift is the only other RB (minimum 10 attempts per game) who is averaging fewer than two yards after contact per rush through one month of football. Achane's avoided tackle rate is down from 30% as a rookie to 16.4% in Year 2. |
| What's going on here? |
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| This probably is not helping. |
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| Facing fewer light boxes has likely contributed to Achane's rushing efficiency dip. Another factor potentially coming into play with Achane's rushing efficiency dip: |
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| Obviously, the ultimate factor is the offensive environment in Miami. |
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| Achane was never going to replicate last year's 7.8 yards per rush. I projected him for 5.0 yards per rush in 2024. He's at 3.3, which is hurting his overall Fantasy efficiency, but ultimately is not the end of the world. The real problem is the lack of scoring upside in Miami. He would have to be producing last year's yards per rush rate to matter for Fantasy given his current offensive environment without Tua Tagovailoa. Miami's offense is producing little to no trips to the red zone each week. |
| Don't let yourself be frustrated by Achane's rushing efficiency dip and lose the plot. Advanced rushing analysis is fun. And it can be important, especially in instances where touch volume ambiguity exists in the backfield. It can be important to know how RBs fit their blocking scheme and how effective they are at avoiding tackles and all of that, but at the end of the day, the winning formula is simple. We're looking for targets and TDs. Don't ever let the additional context distract you from that fact. |
| For now, his Fantasy value is almost entirely predicated on targets. And even those have come down with the offense unable to string together any successful drives and produce play volume. The overall size of the pie that Achane take a slice of each week is so small. For the time being, Achane is an extremely risky Fantasy player. |
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| Can he return to the top-five Fantasy RB that he appeared to be before Tagovailoa's injury? I think so. I watched all of his touches to see if there was anything noticeable that might be influencing his efficiency dip. He looks like the same player as last year. Watching his film felt sort of similar to watching the Fields scrambles. There just were not many plays that presented an opportunity for a big gain. Four games is a small sample size. |
| I have no idea if Tagovailoa is going to play again for Miami, but that seems to be the way the situation is trending. If that comes to fruition, then Achane may make up for a few down weeks in a hurry. |
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| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: BIJAN ROBINSON |
| I have some specific notes on the way that Robinson is being used. But first, we have to acknowledge what has been going on for the Falcons at a team level. |
| Any Bijan Robinson Fantasy discussion starts with the Atlanta Falcons offense |
| In 2023, Atlanta ranked 27th in the percentage of offensive drives that resulted in a TD. Aside from any of the Arthur Smith shenanigans, Robinson also contended with an offensive environment that simply wasn't conducive to scoring. |
| In 2024, the Falcons scored just five touchdowns in the first four games and only one went to Robinson. Then, in Week 5, we were finally treated to the offensive eruption spot that regression had been calling for from Atlanta. |
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| And still, no touchdowns for Robinson. Almost all of the offensive production came from the passing game. Robinson's Fantasy managers are left with next to nothing, once again. |
| Patience. |
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| Regression comes in many forms. One such form is the schedule loosening up and the flood gates bursting forth with half-a-thousand Kirk Cousins passing yards. Another such form might look like Kyle Pitts getting stopped at the one-yard line so that Robinson can punch in a rushing score. We never know how these things will go, but my bet is that over time, we will see Robinson produce. He's too good to not produce with the role that he's playing in a fast-paced offense that is facing an easy schedule and just proved plenty capable of putting points on the board. |
| Okay, let's talk about the specifics of Robinson's rushing efficiency. And again, as with Achane, I will remind you to not lose the plot here. Rushing efficiency plays a small part in overall Fantasy RB output. |
| Rushing efficiency is fun. It really doesn't matter much for Fantasy. Two of the top-five RBs in PPR points in 2023 averaged 3.6 and 3.8 yards per rush. Four of the five had 70 targets. The one who didn't had 18 rushing TDs. We know what we're chasing when it comes to Fantasy RB's. I don't think that Robinson's skill set is being maximized in Atlanta's zone-heavy rush scheme. I also don't think it matters all that much. He could score three touchdowns next week. He plays almost every snap. Don't lose the plot. |
| Here's what I'm talking about when I reference his fit in the zone-blocking Falcons rush attack: |
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| Atlanta's scheme is perfect for Tyler Allgeier. It feels like Robinson is being limited by it. Atlanta's new offensive designer -- Zach Robinson, formerly with the Rams -- has instituted some really fun wrinkles into the offense. I love the way that Drake London and Darnell Mooney are being used in tandem. The run game has felt very predictable. It very much feels like someone trying to copy what Kyle Shanahan does in San Francisco without as much savvy, nuance, and understanding of how to execute it. That's not a knock on Robinson. Shanahan is one of the best run-game designers of all time. |
| Anyway, I wouldn't worry about Robinson's Fantasy outlook. And for what it's worth, his rookie-season offensive schemer was the most outside zone-heavy run designed in 2023. So this is nothing new. Robinson was featured more on inside zone and duo runs at Texas, but he's been asked to adapt his game at the pro level. I think that he's talented enough to do just that, even if it's less than ideal. |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: TRAVIS KELCE |
| With the receiver position suddenly a major question mark, Patrick Mahomes again finds himself totally reliant on his future Hall of Fame tight end to consistently create an open target. Kelce celebrates his 35th birthday this Saturday; is the vet still capable of operating as an effective offensive centerpiece? |
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| Is Kelce getting open? |
| According to ESPN Analytics, Kelce has been the most open tight end in the NFL in 2024. |
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| Fantasy Points Data has Kelce ranked tied with Dallas Goedert for first in average separation score among 17 tight ends with at least 20+ routes run per game. |
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| It feels like Kelce's elite Fantasy days are back. Multiple tracking sites cite him as the most-open tight end in the league, and he inherited almost all of Rashee Rice's first-read targets in Week 4. |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: XAVIER WORTHY |
| Xavier Worthy, on the other hand, has yet to see more than four targets in a game. On the season, Worthy has just a 14.4% target per route run rate. That's not what you wanna see. Below, you'll find the range of players who Worthy profiles similarly to, in terms of drawing targets. |
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| The Chiefs have even done a bit to design targets, which is why his average depth of target (10.9) isn't as high as you might imagine. Compare that to Alec Pierce (a hilarious 24.9-yard aDOT). The times when those two players appear on NFL Red Zone are similar types of deep throws, but unlike Worthy, Pierce only gets downfield shots. He has no screens. Kansas City has dialed up a screen target for Worthy in each of the past three games. The Chiefs have also tried to get him involved on some short crossers lately. And still, his target rate is just 14.4%. Outside of deep shots, it feels as if Worthy has not created any wins on his own as a route runner and target-drawer. |
| This is backed by what the Fantasy Points Data Suite has found. Worthy ranks 67th out of 68 qualified receivers in route 'win rate.' I wondered if that was heavily influenced by his route tree, and I believe that notion is also backed by the Data Suite. |
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| In his current role, Worthy is going to be very hard to trust for Fantasy purposes on a weekly basis. If his role is expanded, he may be an awesome Fantasy player. Give him more horizontally-breaking routes mixed in with a designed touch here and there and some timely deep balls, and suddenly we are cooking. |
| Still, we are currently a very long way away from cooking. |
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| He's not even currently close to this range of receivers. Tyler Lockett's 15.3% TPRR in 2018 is the only rate remotely close to Worthy's rate. Only a handful of the players listed in the tweet above were below 18%. Worthy's 14.4% rate is really low. I hope that we see a transformation. I felt cautiously optimistic in Worthy's ability to contribute as a weapon with the ball in his hands and maintain some level of optimism that he'll see more short and intermediate targets in the future. We'll see! I wouldn't blame anyone for selling high. Nothing that we've seen from him on an NFL field has been particularly inspiring as it pertains to any potential role expansion. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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| | | | | NFL | | College Football | See who bounces back in NFL week 5! Watch your local game live this Sunday at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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