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| Friday, September 20, 2024 |
| Thank you for all of your feedback -- I received hundreds of replies from FFT Newsletter readers to my Week 3 'In The Lab' Google form and read through them all! This is fun! I love having this interactive space where I can get a better idea of where your heads are at. Here's who you wanted to hear about the most this week: |
| (I won't have time to get to every player today, but I did want to give you a glimpse of where the community's curiosity is at after two weeks. Today, I'll hit on each of the players in bold in detail) |
| QB -- Anthony Richardson (+Michael Pittman), Jayden Daniels (+Terry McLaurin), Caleb Williams |
| RB -- Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Zamir White |
| WR -- Tank Dell, Chris Olave, Drake London |
| TE -- Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews |
| Good stuff! Let's put these topics under a microscope! |
| One of the most common pieces of feedback that I've received is that it would help to have rest of season rankings updates. I love it. I'll try to carve out time to give you some updated thoughts on rest of season rankings in this space going forward. Fortunately, I just recorded a podcast with Dan Schneier of FFT and Pat Fitzmaurice of Fantasy Pros , where we talked about rest of season rankings! You can find the most recent Beyond the Box Score episode here! |
| In The Lab -- Week 3 |
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| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: DERRICK HENRY |
| (My findings -- Patience is warranted, things should get better) |
| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
| Is his current usage the best it'll be? Does he actually fit the Ravens scheme well? |
| Do you think he's dust? Will the Ravens get back to winning and positive game scripts? |
| Can he be utilized more on third downs? Why isn't Baltimore giving him more carries? |
| I watched all of Henry's touches, and I do not think that he's dust. There were plenty of stiff arms, he's averaging over three yards after contact per rush, and TruMedia charted him with six avoided tackles through two games. To me, he's looked better as a rusher than Jonathan Taylor if comparing to a similar type of Fantasy RB profile -- another RB who needs elite rushing contributions to live up to expectations. |
| The problem has been a lack of volume. Henry is averaging 16 touches per game. |
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| Why is the volume low? I believe our answer here can be found by simply looking at the 0-2 record for Baltimore. The Ravens have played with a lead on 24% of offensive plays. In 2023, Baltimore led on 61% of offensive plays. |
| Henry has a 67% snap rate when Baltimore has played with a lead, compared to just a 41% rate when tied or trailing. He's accounted for 57% of Baltimore's touches when playing with a lead. |
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| Assuming he does get more touches, what type of rushing efficiency can we expect? |
| To quickly answer the question about Henry's third-down role, no, I do not expect him to play on third downs. That's Justice Hill's role. The Ravens love him, and for good reason. He's a fantastic third-down RB. Barring Hill becoming unavailable to fill that third-down role, Henry is going to remain dependent on the Ravens playing in positive game scripts. |
| I expect Baltimore to play with more positive game scripts. The Ravens are 1.5-point favorites on the road against Dallas in Week 3. Vegas gives this team a ton of respect. I think that we'll see more leads in Ravens games soon. What might the run game look like in that scenario? |
| So far, Henry and the Ravens have been very effective on the ground. The average rushing EPA (expected points added) per rush for running backs with 20+ attempts in 2024 is -5.1. Generally, rushing nets a negative result vs. expectation. Passing is generally more efficient. Henry's EPA per rush is +3.1. He's one of 11 qualified running backs with a positive rate. He also ranks ninth out of 32 qualifiers in rushing success rate. |
| The Ravens have been more pass-heavy than I expected so far. Even in neutral situations (score within seven points), Baltimore ranks seventh in first-down pass rate and 13th in overall pass rate. I expected this to be a bottom-third of the team in neutral pass rate. I expect that we'll see the Ravens lean on the ground game going forward, starting in a matchup against a Cowboys defense that has been one of the easiest to run on so far in 2024. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Baltimore Ravens |
Week 3 -- Cowboys on the road
Week 4 -- Bills
Week 5 -- Bengals |
| Week 4 may be another game where Baltimore is chasing a lead, but Week 5 offers a potentially HUGE Fantasy output for Henry. I didn't draft much of Henry, but I'd be patient if I did roster him. |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: MARK ANDREWS
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| (My findings -- You really do hate to see it) |
| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
| How often does Lamar target him under pressure? Baltimore's O-line seems rough... |
| What are we seeing with his route participation, dropbacks spent blocking, first read rate? |
| Should he even still be rostered?!?! |
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| According to TruMedia, Lamar Jackson has the third-lowest pressured dropback rate in 2024. PFF has Baltimore's pass-blocking graded seventh-best. The Chiefs pressured Jackson a ton, but Vegas only generated a 14% pressure rate vs. the Ravens in Week 2. Shoutout, Mark Andrews, apparently. Good work as the team's third tackle! Unfortunately, that does us no favors for Fantasy. |
| When Jackson has been pressured, Andrews has zero targets on 18 routes run. Last year, he was targeted on only 11% of his routes run when Jackson was pressured. So, if pass protection is going to be a problem for this offense, that's bad news for Andrews. |
| As for the question about first-read targets, you can find first-read target information for every single team in this thread that I created. Through two games, Baltimore's offense has funneled through Zay Flowers (33% first-read target rate), with Andrews mostly an afterthought (13%). The offensive performance hasn't been particularly compelling through two weeks, so maybe we see things shift as the season goes on. |
| I'm not feeling great about the Fantasy outlook for Andrews, and he's someone that I have a ton of exposure to in Dynasty formats. Am I dropping him anywhere? No. For who? Isaiah Likely? No. Likely's route participation dropped to 50% in Week 2. Andrews is the team's clear starting tight end/right tackle, and he's the clear best bet to finish second on the team in targets. It's possible that we even see the target distribution swing back in his favor if Flowers continues to average just 6.1 yards per target. |
| I don't have any optimism for you other than the track record established by Andrews and Jackson as one of the most dynamic duos in the NFL. Andrews is 29 years old. I don't think he's dust. You may just have to take your lumps at the TE position for a bit; it happens to basically everyone who has to roster a Fantasy TE. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Ravens |
Week 3 -- Cowboys on the road
Week 4 -- Bills
Week 5 -- Bengals |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: ANTHONY RICHARDSON (with bonus Michael Pittman content)
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| (My findings -- The next month may be rough, but I'm not worried about A Rich in the long term. Pittman is another story.) |
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| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
What are we seeing with his average depth of throw, time in the pocket, scramble rate?
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| Is he ever going to be a consistent Fantasy contributor? |
| What's his accuracy been like so far? |
Average depth of target (aDOT) -- 13.7 yards (Trevor Lawrence is the only other QB with a double-digit rate, at 11.2 yards. NFL average = 7.4 yards)
Average time to throw -- 3.17 seconds (tied with Deshaun Watson for third-highest. NFL average = 2.87)
Average time to throw in the pocket -- 2.76 seconds (only Justin Fields has a higher rate. NFL average = 2.48)
Scramble rate -- 8.3% |
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| Richardson's scramble rate in 2023 was 7.1%. He didn't scramble a ton in college, either. His designed rush rate under Shane Steichen (particularly in the red zone) is what was so exciting about Richardson's limited rookie action. Richardson's designed rush rate in 2023 was 15.5%. So far, that rate is at 9.1% in 2024. |
| Slightly less rushing is something that I'm monitoring going forward, but it's important not to overreact to a two-game sample size. Richardson is averaging 0.70 Fantasy points per dropback so far, down from 0.80 in 2023. That's still really high. Josh Allen's rate in 2023 was 0.69. |
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| Is Richardson going to be consistent for Fantasy purposes? Probably not. He's super inexperienced. I'd encourage patience. Josh Downs making his 2024 debut should help provide more easy buttons for Richardson to hit. |
| Michael Pittman may be one of the biggest disappointments in Fantasy |
| Pittman led the NFL in RPO (run-pass option) targets in 2023 by a wide margin. Those have disappeared from his profile in 2024. |
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| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Indianapolis Colts |
Week 2 -- Bears
Week 3 -- Steelers
Week 4 -- Jaguars on the road |
| Woof. The immediate future for this Colts offense might be rough. |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: JAYDEN DANIELS (with bonus Terry McLaurin content) |
| (My findings -- There's potential for more from this offense) |
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| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
How is he handling pressure?
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| Do you see him passing downfield more as his rookie season progresses? |
| Should I be looking to move on from him? |
| Bruh. One game. One single game -- mind you, in which his offense moves the ball successfully but simply stalled out in the red zone -- where Daniels "underperforms," and we are wondering if we should move on from him. R-E-L-A-X. |
| Daniels is the QB4 in Fantasy. He's one touchdown away from being first in QB points. Should you move on from him? Only if you feel confident that you're replacing him with the top scorer at the QB position from this point on! |
| In this video, you can watch a breakdown of what's going on in the Kliff Kingsbury offense. It's not as bad as you might imagine. It wasn't as bad as I had imagined, at least. There were more potential shots to attack deep than I had expected. For whatever reason, Jayden turned them down. Will we see more deep passing going forward? My guess is probably. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Commanders |
Week 3 -- Bengals on the road
Week 4 -- Cardinals on the road
Week 5 -- Browns |
| The passing offense could find its footing in these next two games, but a Week 5 matchup against the Browns is terrifying. Only 29% of Washington's pressured dropbacks have resulted in a target. The NFL average is 60%! |
| The Commanders made it a priority to get the ball to Terry McLaurin in Week 2 |
| McLaurin has a 31% first-read target rate on the year, and Kliff Kingsbury even went as far as to move him to the right side of the formation in Week 2! (This is a joke; his alignment really didn't change in any meaningful way) |
| McLaurin's route tree was changed in a meaningful way, though! His 'go' route rate dropped from 31% to 14%, and Kingsbury used him on more slants, screens, and crossers. After finishing with four targets and 80 air yards in Week 1, McLaurin had eight targets and 31 air yards in Week 2. The Commanders attempted to get him some catch-and-run opportunities, but they felt too predictable for McLaurin to actually have much opportunity to run. For what it's worth, he's been one of the best catch-and-run weapons on short targets, so I think this is an encouraging development if it sticks. |
| McLaurin left another 30-40 yards on the field with two drops in Week 2. He got popped over the middle on one that Daniels probably shouldn't have thrown, and the other drop was a bit off-target, and McLaurin had to lunge to try to secure it. Both hit him in the hands, though. This after a Week 1 in which McLaurin toasted his defender and was missed down the left sideline on a potential 71-yard touchdown. |
| My guess is that things will get better for McLaurin as the Commanders continue to open the offense up, especially if catch-and-run opportunities continue to be given. No one else in Washington has emerged as target competition, so we could realistically see McLaurin's target share push to a career-high rate. Ultimately, I worry about what a low percentage of dropbacks actually results in targets in this offense, but still, McLaurin will likely produce better results than he has through two weeks. |
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| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: ZAMIR WHITE |
| (My findings -- Week 3 may look much different for Zamir White and this Vegas run game) |
| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
| How bad is he? |
| Why is he sucking, and what's the deal with Mattison? |
| LOL - You can watch all of Zamir White's 2024 runs right here! See for yourself! Just how bad is he? |
| To my untrained eyes, Zamir has not had much opportunity to do anything with his rush attempts. And I just checked to back up my untrained eyes with some trained eyes -- PFF has the Vegas run-blocking graded 31st ahead of only the Denver Broncos. |
| The debut of the 44th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft should help. Jackson Powers-Johnson is ready to roll for Vegas and may make a big impact on the interior immediately. This run game could improve, and could not ask for a better Week 3 matchup. |
| Another important note as it relates to White: the Raiders have been one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football. |
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| My guess is that we see this change starting in Week 3. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Raiders |
Week 3 -- Panthers
Week 4 -- Browns
Week 5 -- Broncos on the road |
| As for Alexander Mattison, the Week 2 usage suggests that he may be less involved going forward. |
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| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: TANK DELL |
| (My findings -- He's a stud, but the role is far from ideal) |
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| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
| Can we get some info on route participation, participation in 2 WR sets, where he lines up on the field, and first read rate? |
| Could Tank Dell be a top-24 WR without an injury to Diggs or Collins? |
| I absolutely am not worried about Tank Dell in the long term. He's a stud, and his offensive environment is awesome, the results just have not been there through two games. His first-read target rate is down (15.8%), but I think that we could see that number fluctuate throughout the year depending on what defenses prioritize. My guess is that defenses surely are terrified of Nico Collins at this point. |
| In the short term, there may be reasons for concern. It might require an injury for Dell to return to last year's levels of efficiency. |
| I checked in on Dell's route tree information, and it's nearly identical to his rookie season. Truly, the Rams have basically subbed Stefon Diggs in for Robert Woods and continued to let Collins and Dell do their thing. The big difference is that Dell stayed on the field for two-receiver sets as a rookie more often. He was on the field for 55% of two-receiver sets when healthy in 2023, that rate is down to 20%. |
| That hasn't really impacted his route participation rate in a noticeable way, though. Dell's route participation rate has been above 80% in both games thus far; he's only run one fewer route than Diggs. |
| You can find a Texans target distribution breakdown here. |
| How has Dell remained on the field for so many route-running opportunities if he's not playing in two-receiver sets? Well, simply, the Texans have a tell. When two or fewer receivers have been on the field, the Texans have run the ball 71% of the time. The NFL average is 62%. When three or more receivers have been on the field, Houston has passed the ball 72% of the time. The NFL average is 64%. Last year, Houston was right around the averages. Either this will stick, and this offense will be more predictable than others, or it won't, and Dell's route participation rate will drop (assuming he is the one who continues to leave the field for two-receiver sets). |
| This is the point in digging into Dell's data at which I actually started to get concerned. Running routes with three receivers on the field as opposed to two is generally a bad thing for Fantasy purposes. |
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| If sharing the field with two other receivers -- namely, Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs -- you are facing more target competition than if only sharing the field with one other receiver. Replacing a fullback or backup tight end with Diggs is a meaningful change. |
| Tank Dell's 2023 per-route data with 3+ receivers on the field: |
20.1% -- Target per route run rate
1.97 -- Yards per route run
0.47 -- PPR points per route run |
| Tank Dell's 2023 per-route data with two or fewer receivers on the field: |
36.9% -- Target per route run rate
3.20 -- Yards per route run
0.63 -- PPR points per route run |
| Dell is a beast. His splits with 3+ WRs on the field were still incredible. But those splits with two receivers on the field were e l i t e! |
| Play action is a huge contributing factor here. Since the start of the Bobby Slowik era, the Texans have an eight percent play action rate with 3+ WRs on the field (NFL average is 9%). With two or fewer receivers on the field, Houston's play-action rate is 24%, up from an NFL average of 20.8%. |
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| What does this all mean in totality? You still probably shouldn't overreact or sell Dell. We saw Tank Dell average 0.47 PPR points per route on just a 20% target rate with three-plus receivers out there as a rook. The dude is just so good. My guess is that he'll be more hit-or-miss in this role and may occasionally fall out of Fantasy relevancy completely if Houston goes run-heavy. But he will likely deliver spike weeks. And if either Collins or Diggs miss time, Dell will project as a weekly top-20 Fantasy WR. There's also an outside shot that he could cut into Diggs' share of two-receiver sets at some point. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Texans |
Week 3 -- Vikings on the road
Week 4 -- Jaguars
Week 5 -- Bills |
| The upcoming matchup is an intriguing one for Dell and the Texans passing game as a whole. Brian Flores and the Vikings defense has been giving opposing pass games fits. This is the game that I am the most excited for in Week 3. I'm really curious to see how C.J. Stroud chooses to attack this defense. To my eyes, Stroud appears to have leveled up from a patience and maturity standpoint when it comes to reading defenses from Year 1 to Year 2. This defense will provide an ultimate test for him in this regard. |
| If you want to read about the specific coverage types that the Vikings use, you can do that here. And if you like that type of analysis, I have to recommend that you make sure to always catch Wednesday's newsletter! I cover as many matchups as I can in that space every week. |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: CHRIS OLAVE |
| (My findings -- No worries at all. Buy-low if you can) |
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| You can watch every Chris Olave route run in Week 1. |
| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
| How has New Orleans done so well without him, is there still upside to look forward to from him? |
| Yes. You can find the Beyond the Box Score breakdown of Olave's 2024 season here . His role through two games has been encouraging, even though he hasn't been the one coming down with the explosive plays. I strongly believe in Olave as a player and expect much better days to come. His late-season schedule sets up very nicely. While it's frustrating that we haven't received big Fantasy dividends yet, I encourage you to remain patient. For as long as it takes, be patient. This offense has the potential to produce league-winning results, as we've seen. I will update you in this space if I notice anything regarding Olave's role that makes it seem likely that he's not going to be a bigger part of the offense than he has been thus far. So far, I am only encouraged by what we've seen as it relates to Olave. |
| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the New Orleans Saints |
Week 3 -- Eagles
Week 4 -- Falcons on the road
Week 5 -- Chiefs on the road |
| UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: DRAKE LONDON |
| (My findings -- Whew, thank goodness for that Week 2 performance. Week 1 was scary hours) |
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| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
| Is this the beginning of something beautiful? |
| This question got an audible laugh from me, so thank you! |
| Is there any hope for Kirk Cousins? |
| I thought that Kirk looked much better in Week 2! |
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| On the year, Cousins has the fifth-lowest off-target rate. I'm not sure if we're ever going to see him return to even 2023 per-injury form, but Week 2 was a step in the right direction. |
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| Looking ahead -- Upcoming matchups for the Atlanta Falcons |
Week 3 -- Chiefs
Week 4 -- Saints
Week 5 -- Buccaneers |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: BROCK BOWERS
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| (My findings -- STUD. The Raiders likely will pass the ball less going forward, so maybe you shouldn't sell the farm for him. But then again, maybe you should! Bowers appears to be rapidly approaching TE1 in Fantasy status) |
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| Questions from FFT newsletter readers: |
| How often is he lining up inline vs. out wide or in the slot? |
| The Bowers questions were essentially all the same -- is he for real? He is real, and he is spectacular. You can watch all of his 17 targets through two weeks right here. |
| To answer the question about his alignment: |
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| Bowers was used as a pre-snap motion route runner eight times in Week 1 and targeted once on those plays. In Week 2, he was targeted on three of seven snaps as the pre-snap motion man. |
| The backfield stuff that we saw from Vegas during the preseason hasn't been used during the regular season. Bowers has one snap in the backfield. He's been in the slot on 53% of his snaps and out wide 10% of the time. When watching Vegas, my eyes naturally gravitate towards Bowers. He's moved around the formation often and seems to be a much more important part of the offense than any other tight end that I have watched through two weeks. His first-read target rate (26.7%) trails only Trey McBride (27.8%) at the tight end position. Bowers sure seems legit to me! The only tight end who I would take over him rest of the season is McBride. If Kittle was healthy, you could make a case for him. |
| As outlined when examining White, this offense is probably going to lean more into the run game going forward. The Week 3 matchup invites a run-heavy gameplan, and I'd expect the Raiders to be more focused on Davante Adams than Bowers when taking to the air against the Panthers. |
| That's it for today! If you want to give me feedback on our first 'In The Lab' installment, go to this Google form and scroll to the bottom. There's an area there where you can give longer-form general feedback. I'd love to hear from you as we continue to grow and shape this space together. I hope that today's 'ITL' was helpful! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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