How to understand coronavirus’s new —global—phase

Today, in lieu of our usual Health newsletter, we’re sending out an update on the global status of COVID-19 outbreak. We welcome any feedback at [email protected].

THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK

In the past week, a surge in coronavirus cases outside China has raised concerns that the outbreak has reached a new stage and could continue its global spread to even more vulnerable countries.

As of last night, more than 3,300 cases of the virus have been reported outside of mainland China, where the overwhelming majority of the over 81,000 cases have been located since officials first discovered the disease in December. In the central Chinese province of Hubei, where the virus is believed to have originated, the number of cases appears to be stabilizing, according to government figures. But the number of people infected by—and dying from—the disease elsewhere is rising.

In a news conference Monday, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the outbreak has not yet reached the level of pandemic. Nevertheless, the WHO is warning that the window of opportunity to stop the coronavirus outbreak is shrinking.

Here are some of the latest updates from around the world:

United States

The U.S. has now confirmed 14 cases of COVID-19 within the country, and 45 more Americans who were infected overseas. Most caught the illness on the virus-stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship, and three others were evacuated from China. On Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) told reporters that community spread in the country is likely; the question isn’t “if” but “when.”

There were around 400 Americans aboard the Diamond Princess ship, where cases of COVID-19 soared after the boat was placed under quarantine in the Japanese port of Yokohama in early February, making it the largest cluster of the novel coronavirus outside mainland China.

Brazil

On Wednesday, Brazil became the first South American country to confirm a case of COVID-19, in a resident who had recently traveled to Italy on a work trip, according to the AP. Health officials said at a Wednesday conference that the man can return to his normal life when his symptoms have passed. In the meanwhile, they will take steps to identify and monitor people the man has come in contact with. “We will now see how this virus behaves in a tropical country in the middle of summer,” said Brazil’s Health Minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta.

Iran

With 19 coronavirus-related deaths, Iran follows only China. The outbreak in Iran has centered mostly on Qom, a city of about 900,000 people, but cases have spread over the last few days to other cities, including the country’s capital, Tehran. Experts worry that cases in Iran could spill over to neighboring countries. Qom is a holy city and pilgrimage site for Shi’a Muslims. Other countries in the region, including Afghanistan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq, have already reported cases involving individuals coming from Iran, and some neighboring states have shut down their borders to Iranians.

South Korea

Yesterday, South Korea confirmed that the number of cases of COVID-19 in the country had climbed to 1,261, with 12 deaths. More than half of these cases are in the southwestern city of Daegu, where the coronavirus spread rapidly through the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a mysterious religious group. More than 9,000 members of the group are in quarantine. The church, which claims about 200,000 followers in South Korea, said it has closed all of its 74 centers around the country and told followers to instead watch its worship services on YouTube.

Italy

In just the last week, the number of cases in Italy rose so rapidly that the country now has the third-highest count globally, following China and South Korea. The outbreak is concentrated in the wealthy northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto, but cases have been discovered in Sicily, Tuscany and Liguria, as well, according to the AP. The country has not yet identified “patient zero,” raising alarm about how widely the disease has already spread. Some Italian towns and cities, including Venice, have canceled Ash Wednesday Mass due to coronavirus fears, according to the AP.

Japan

As of last night, Japan had confirmed 189 cases of COVID-19 in the country—not including the 705 infected (and quarantined) passengers and crew members still aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which is currently docked near the city of Yokohama. Off the ship, one Japanese cluster involves a Jan. 22 river cruise in Tokyo organized by an independent taxi drivers’ union. Eleven people from the boat were infected, and a number of cases in the country were linked back to those who caught the virus on the boat. In another cluster, four people from the central prefecture of Aichi were infected after traveling back from Hawaii. Katsunobu Kato, Japan’s health minister, said last week that the country had entered a “new phase” of the outbreak.

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THE MOST AFFECTED COUNTRIES SO FAR

As of Feb. 26, 7 PM EST, here are the 15 countries with the most cases of COVID-19. (For comparison purposes, we've counted the Diamond Princess cruise ship as a "country.")

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