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Tuesday, March 16, 2021
If you're reading this, chances are you've had a question about what you should do in the early rounds of your Fantasy Baseball draft. This year more than ever it seems like we've been receiving so many of these questions and it makes sense. It's a confusing time to play Fantasy Baseball. We have to make player valuations following a 60-game season, 37% of what we're used to. Let us be your guiding light.
Today on the podcast we focused on how to draft from each draft slot of a 12-team league in both the H2H points and Roto/categories formats. It's important to know the distinction. In a H2H points league, chances are you're going to take one of Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, or Shane Bieber if you have one of the first three picks. But what do you do after that? How about in Roto or a H2H categories league? How many of those five-tool hitters are at the top. How does your team turn out if you draft two starting pitchers with your first two picks? We answered all of those questions and more. If you had concerns over how to start your draft, they should be gone after listening to the pod and reading below.
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How to draft from the No. 1 slot
  • In Roto leagues:
Ronald Acuna is the consensus No. 1 pick for all of us here at Fantasy Baseball. When drafting hitters at the top of the draft in Roto formats, it's especially important to prioritize finding a source of stolen bases and Acuna delivers. 
Acuna ATC projections: .277, 39 HR, 117 runs, 93 RBI, 29 SB.
But what happens when it comes back to you at the Round 2/3 turn after you select Acuna No. 1 overall?
Scott is looking to go SP-SP at the 2/3 turn after grabbing Acuna at No. 1 overall. "I would be most worried about what your SP2 and SP3 looks like if you don't get them here. I'm looking at Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Jack Flaherty here. I think it would be reaching to go beyond these three -- and I probably draw the line at Luis Castillo. If you can't get two of them, I go Corey Seager here."
  • In H2H points leagues:
We all have a different SP going No. 1 overall in this format, but Scott has Shane Bieber as his SP1. "Bieber is more like a 7-8 inning pitcher and that affects everything in this format -- not last but least his win potential -- because he is pitching deep into games. You are worried about innings in a points format."
I go with Gerrit Cole as my SP1 and the No. 1 overall pick in this format.
Once Scott grabs Bieber at No. 1 overall, he's looking to invest in a player who often gets pushed down too far in H2H points leagues: Trevor Story. Just kidding. While Scott likes Story and Seager here, or even Anthony Rendon or Alex Bregman (in this format), he's looking to scoop up as many SPs as possible. Depending on who is available, he'll grab two more, but he won't go as low as drafting two like Kenta Maeda and Zac Gallen here.
My ideal start would be to pair a Flaherty with Cole and then grab a stud hitter at that 2/3 turn.
  • In H2H categories leagues:
The strategy here is near identical for us in H2H categories as it is for Roto leagues.
How to draft from the No. 2 slot
  • In Roto leagues
Scott rolls with Mookie Betts over Juan Soto for one simple reason: he's a safer bet for a useful steals total. I would grab Juan Soto over Betts -- as I'm a believer in more steals coming -- but I'm not going to knock anyone for Betts.
Soto ATC Projection: .303, 38 HR, 110 runs, 112 RBI, 14 SB.
Betts ATC Projection: .290, 33 HR, 121 runs, 92 RBI, 23 SB.
Our strategy on the comeback in Rounds 2 and 3 are very similar to how we would play it from the No. 1 slot. SPs are once again prioritized.
  • In H2H points
Both Scott and I are grabbing our SP2 overall with the No. 2 overall pick and neither of us can imagine going through the first three rounds without grabbing at least two SPs -- sometimes up to three.
  • In H2H categories
The lineups are smaller, so the only difference here for Scott is that he might lean even more into SPs and he's more inclined to punt the steals category than he would be in a Roto format. 
How to draft from the No. 7-9 slots
  • In Roto leagues
We're not forcing SP from this slot if the Big 3 are off the board, but instead taking the best hitter to fall before diving back into SP in Round 2. Lucas Giolito, Manny Machado, Walker Buehler, Aaron Nola, Bo Bichette, Scherzer, LeMahieu, Luis Castillo, Adalberto Mondesi, Jack Flaherty, Xander Bogaerts, Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, and Seager (for Scott!) are all players we're considering on the comeback.
  • In H2H points leagues
The strategy remains the same in Round 1, but in Round 2 we're more likely to dive into that next SP range including Castillo, Flaherty and Maeda.
  • In H2H categories leagues
The strategy remains the same as our approach in Roto leagues.
On the rest of the podcast, we break down how to pick from every draft slot including interesting scenarios from how to pick from the 12/13 turn. We even tease the idea of going one hitter and one pitcher at every turn, and Scott wasn't totally against it!
News and notes
  • Probably the most interesting thing I saw today was that Eugenio Suarez will start at shortstop for the Reds on Tuesday with Mike Moustakas at third and prospect Jonathan India at second base. If Suarez can gain SS eligibility, that just makes him even more valuable and he's already flying under the radar a bit as a prospective value at ADP.
  • And don't sleep on India, who was a first-round pick in 2018, but the minor-league numbers have been underwhelming. Here's India's minor league line from back in 2019: .259 average with 11 HR and 11 SB.
  • Luis Robert was scratched from Monday's spring training game due to a lower abdominal strain.
  • Ketel Marte left Monday's action after being hit by a pitch on his foot. No update yet.
  • Spencer Howard was scheduled to throw two innings Monday against the Yankees but was scratched due to back spasms.
  • Xander Bogaerts, who's been dealing with a shoulder injury, could appear in a game at shortstop as soon as Wednesday.
  • Christian Yelich was scratched from the lineup for Monday's game against the Padres but isn't hurt.
  • A's manager Bob Melvin suggested Sunday that A.J. Puk will be the top candidate to begin the season as the Athletics' fifth starter if Mike Fiers (hip) is placed on the injured list. This is excellent news for those of us who hoped to use Puk as a SPaRP -- specifically in H2H points leagues where he now becomes a sleeper to target.
  • Jarred Kelenic (knee) will hit again Monday and should get into game action later in the week.
  • Reds outfielder Shogo Akiyama will be sidelined a few weeks with a hamstring injury, all but assuring he will open the season on the IL. That should solidify playing time for Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker early on.
  • Lorenzo Cain, who has been dealing with a quad injury, is scheduled to appear in a game this Saturday.
  • Players on a tear: Corey Seager hit his fifth home run of the spring and Shohei Ohtani hit two opposite field home runs Monday off Michael Lorenzen.
 
 
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