How the ‘big five’ will reshape next EU Parliament

Good morning from Brussels,

As the countdown for the EU elections has started, Euractiv analysed how the “big five” national delegations could reshape the political landscape in the next European Parliament.

Based on the current projections, our politics reporter, Max Griera, found that some significant shifts will take place within the political groups.

In the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), Poles and Spaniards will challenge Germany’s influence.

Madrid will increase its EU leverage as a whole, considering that Spanish socialists will largely prevail in the EU socialist group, too.

In far-right Identity and Democracy (ID), France’s Marine Le Pen will claim control of the group from Italy’s Lega, while Giorgia Meloni will take over the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) from Poland’s PiS.

Meanwhile, the EU Liberals have difficulty counting on the French, as President Emmanuel Macron’s party expects an electoral defeat at home.

Read the full story here.

Meanwhile, today, Dutch voters open the EU elections marathon, which will last until Sunday (9 June), when the vast majority of EU countries will vote.

Tomorrow (7 June), it’s Ireland and Czechia’s turn, while on Saturday (8 June), it’s Italy, Malta, Latvia and Slovakia.

The latter faces big disinformation issues orchestrated by pro-Russian forces, our reporters in Bratislava, Natália Silenská and Marián Koreň write.

A more right-wing European Parliament could mean fewer regulatory initiatives in the area of tech, and a weakened push for market integration, but more support for defence tech, according to party manifestos and expert interviews. Euractiv’s tech reporter Julia Tar digs deeper.

On the foreign policy front, 12 EU member states have made a joint push to advance the accession process for Ukraine and Moldova and formally kickstart membership talks by the end of June, while the Eurozone backed a G7 push on Russian frozen assets, although some legal questions remain.

Meanwhile, the EU has invited Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz to attend an ‘ad-hoc’ EU-Israel Association Council to discuss the country’s compliance with its human rights obligations under the deal.

In agriculture, as organic advocates celebrate a legal victory to halt ‘Eco-score’ labels, Argentina took its first steps to meet Europe’s new import rules on deforestation.

On energy, a new study suggests that after years of focusing on hydrogen, policymakers should switch their attention to direct electrification, which could deliver 90% of industrial process heat by 2035.

PARIS

National issues take centre stage in France’s EU elections, as far right surges in polls. EU elections in France have been focused on national issues, with very little room for European conversations, as the far-right holds on to a significant lead in voting intentions, and looks to turn the election into an ‘anti-Macron referendum’. Read more.

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BRUSSELS

Belgian far left, right lead in election polls as minors vote for the first time. With Belgians voting in regional, federal and European elections on the same day, the far-right and the far-left are set to make serious gains as experts differ on whether the substantial number of people aged 16-23 voting for the first time will influence the outcome. Read more.

BERLIN

Germany’s exit from the European Union, also known as “Dexit”, would cost the country’s economy €200 billion a year, business lobby INSM warned on Wednesday, as Germany’s far-right AfD party, currently second in the polls ahead of this weekend’s EU elections, maintains a strong anti-EU rhetoric. Read more.

German defence minister teases ‘new type’ of conscription, reiterates ‘no troops in Ukraine’. Germany’s Bundeswehr urgently needs to prepare for potential Russian attacks with a new form of conscription, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius warned on Wednesday and doubled down on his opposition to sending ground troops to Ukraine. Read more.

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PARIS

Franco-German tank producer KNDS confirms to open plant in Ukraine. Franco-German armoured vehicle manufacturer KNDS is to open its first factory on Ukrainian soil, the French Elysee Palace has confirmed, with details to be worked out between President Emmanuel Macron and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy when they meet at the Normandy landings commemorations on Thursday. Read more.

STOCKHOLM

Sweden to ban bottom fishing in territorial waters. Sweden is set to become the second EU country to ban bottom fishing in marine protected areas, going a step further than Greece’s April decision by banning it in all territorial waters. Read more.

ROME | TIRANA

The deal Italy has struck with Albania to have the latter process the asylum claims of thousands of migrants picked up at sea sent to it by Italy should be replicated at the EU level, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Wednesday, adding that it could be part of a structural solution for the EU. Read more.

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MADRID

Respect for EU values ‘red line’ for Spanish right in new European Parliament. Respect for European values is the absolute “red line” of the conservative Partido Popular (EPP), the main opposition force in Spain, for any future alliance in the European Parliament after Sunday’s elections, the party’s main candidate in the European elections Dolors Montserrat told Euractiv’s partner EFE in an interview. Read more.

BRATISLAVA

Disinformation is in full swing in Slovakia, with pro-Russian forces accusing opposition leader Michal Šimečka of the Progressive Slovakia party (PS) of planning an uprising similar to the 2014 Maidan in Ukraine, alongside narratives that foreign entities plotted the assassination of Prime Minister Robert Fico and that the EU wants to kill cows and force citizens to eat worms instead. Read more.
Fico’s first post-assassination speech: Blames opposition, ‘Soros media’. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was shot several times in an assassination attempt on 15 May, unexpectedly posted a video on Facebook in which he said he did not believe the attack on him had been carried out by a “lone madman”, blamed the media and the opposition, and announced that he would be able to return to work in early July. Read more.

SOFIA

Bulgarian army struggling to shake off fake news wave about being sent to Ukraine. The Bulgarian army is struggling to shake off the pre-election wave of disinformation that soldiers are about to be sent to fight in Ukraine, despite pro-Russian far-right political forces and President Rumen Radev continuing to say this is in the works. Read more.

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BUCHAREST

Romanian far-right leader investigated for forging signatures for EU election. Prosecutors are investigating George Simion, leader of Romania’s far-right AUR party, for allegedly orchestrating the falsification of thousands of signatures needed for Silvestru Șoșoacă’s candidacy as an independent in the EU elections, something AUR denies. Read more.

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Daniel Eck, Liene Lūsīte, Alice Taylor]