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| Wednesday, August 21, 2024 |
| I'm a bit bummed because I thought that I was going to get to pick apart Dan Schneier's rankings today. If you aren't familiar with Dan, he edits the newsletter and does fantastic work for CBS. Here's his Twitter account. |
| Dan is the man behind the scenes and our trusty editor, and he doesn't have updated rankings just yet, but he promised to come up with rankings this weekend. So it's coming. |
| Today, I'll conduct a more civilized and professional examination of my rankings relative to my esteemed colleagues who do fantastic work for CBS -- you know them, you love em -- I'm talking about Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings, specifically. |
| Two notes before we jump in: |
| 1. I am updating my research on rush scheme data. You might remember a newsletter post on the topic if you've been reading since June (thank you!). I haven't finished digging into preseason data yet, but I did start -- you can read the update on Twitter. |
| If you don't have a Twitter account, congratulations. I guess that you are better off without one. Still, I'd recommend that you make one for the purpose of following my account. My Twitter account basically serves as a stream of NFL-related consciousness for me during the season. I'm constantly on there. If you want to know what I'm thinking or potentially talk ball, you're gonna need a Twitter account. |
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| Hi, I'm Jacob. I know I don't look it, but I am over 30 years old, I am a professional, and I know ball. I tweet 24/7 during football season. I do not sleep. I only watch ball. Are you a ball-knower? Let's talk. |
| 2. I'll be updating my NFL Journal 2024 with notes each week, starting in the preseason. Feel free to read it. Friday's FFT Newsletter will cover unheralded rookies (we hit on Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, and Jordan Reed in this space last season) as well as an 'In the Lab' installment. Please fill out this form to let me know what you want to put under the microscope! |
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| I am lower than the FFT crew on these players: |
| Jonathan Taylor |
Jamey rank -- 12
Dave rank -- 11
Heath rank -- 10
My rank -- 21 |
| You're going to notice a few themes as we get rolling here. Sorry, I won't tell you what your experience will be, I have no idea. I just tweeted this cut-up of Austin Ekeler's preseason touches without anticipating the possible kerfuffling that might ensue. There's no telling what interpretation might be found outside of our own experience. Many searched for profound meaning within the three Austin Ekeler preseason touches and then directed their disappointment at the tweet when they found none. Life is often confusing, get in line. Austin Ekeler is no longer a Charger, did you know that? |
| I noticed a few themes as I got rolling with these ranking comparisons. |
| 1. The FFT crew ranks running backs much higher than I generally do. |
| 2. The FFT crew ranks wide receivers lower than I tend to. |
| 3. The FFT crew is more cautious with expectations for rookies than I seem to be. |
| It is with all due immense respect that I conduct this rankings examination. Jamey, Dave, and Heath are monoliths that have stood the test of time, enduring all of the ridiculous clamor that inevitably ensues in the pursuit of attempting to make sense of the pure chaos that is Fantasy football. While we all love it, Fantasy football can be cruel, unforgiving, and thankless. If you drafted Jonathan Taylor in 2022, you know this. |
| What have you done for me lately is the name of the game here, and still, these three mensches remain entrenched among the most-trusted to help navigate the treacherous Fantasy landscape even with careers that span decades. Truly an awesome feat that transcends any individual disagreements that I may have as we attempt to project what may happen in 2024. I cannot get behind drafting Taylor ahead of this group of wide receivers: |
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| We'll hit on Collins in more detail later. I recognize that I am much higher on him and Waddle than consensus. Depending on where you are drafting, you may be able to get those two in Rounds 3 or 4, so maybe it makes more sense to draft a RB in Round 2. That's fair. Be sensitive to who you are drafting against and what platform you are drafting on. A casual home league on CBS is the place to draft a RB ahead of these receivers (not Puka). That's how I would draft in that situation, even though I strongly prefer the median projection and top range of outcomes for the receivers over the running back options after the top three backs are off the board. |
| My problem with the JT ranking is that he's not even my top RB after the top three are gone. I prefer Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De'Von Achane. Williams offers more touchdown upside and a bit more receiving upside than Taylor. Vegas lookahead lines have the Rams implied for more points than the Colts, and Williams has no hulking QB as a threat to vulture goal line touchdowns. The Dolphins and Lions are implied for way more points than the Colts. Gibbs and Achane face more backfield competition for touchdowns, but that's baked into their projection. And still, they project an almost identical median point total to JT. What if their backfield teammate gets hurt? Suddenly, those two would project significantly better than Taylor. That contingent upside doesn't exist for Taylor, he's already projected for an optimal role. |
| The real problem is a lack of receiving upside. Gibbs obviously brings massive receiving upside, he's one of the best receiving RB prospects of the past decade. Don't sleep on Achane as a receiving weapon, either! He had 60 receptions in his final two seasons at Texas A&M. |
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| Saquon Barkley |
Jamey rank -- 11
Dave rank -- 12
Heath rank -- 19
My rank -- 42 |
| Speaking of receptions, Saquon Barkley is no longer the receiving back that you think he is (yes, I see his name at the top of the CFB leaderboard that I just provided about Gibbs and Achane. That was seven years ago.) |
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| You're going to notice that Heath and I disagree a lot in today's newsletter! |
| The following images are screenshots that I took of the Philadelphia Eagles team preview that I published titled, "The Jalen Hurts Show." You can read it in article form if you missed it this summer. I previewed every team, by the way, and Dan worked his butt off to get each one on the site, so head over to SportsLine to catch up if you want a deeper dive into each team's 2024 outlook. And please give Dan a follow and thank him for his hard work! |
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| Not all touches are created equal. I have Barkley projected for 257 rush attempts. Only Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson project for more. It just doesn't matter! He's projected for the 12th-most PPR points. I have Isiah Pacheco projected for more points and targets per game than Barkley. |
| Jalen Hurts is a ball hog, more than any player in any offense in the NFL. |
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| The Philly RB position is not a good role for Fantasy purposes. The Eagles are not expected to be an elite offense. Philly has the 11th-highest implied point total for 2024, according to Vegas lookahead lines. No Barkley for me, this year. Not ever. Not even if there's a fire. |
| Oh, let me guess, you still are gonna draft Saquon Barkley? You think he's so much better than the previous Eagles backs, so everything I said is null. Check this out! Oh, let me guess, you think my stats don't matter and I don't know ball. The reason his stats are bad is because his offense sucked and he was getting hit behind the line of scrimmage, right? Well, I've got a stat to address that speculation as well. Oh let me guess, you find me and my stats unbearable and you still think you're right. You better believe that I have a tweet for that too! |
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| Maybe he's just not as good as you think he is. |
| Rachaad White |
Jamey rank -- 27
Dave rank -- 23
Heath rank -- 20
My rank -- 47 |
| I might be wrong on this one. If Rachaad White fills a role similar to the one that he did last year, he could be one of the best picks in Fantasy. I expect Tampa's offensive line play to be much better, and I'm excited about new offensive coordinator Liam Coen's potential impact on the run game. |
| I also think that Bucky Irving might be an obviously better-rushing option than White. We probably don't want a member of this backfield if it is split. The Bucs have the 22nd-ranked Vegas implied point total for 2024. |
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| James Cook |
Jamey rank -- 25
Dave rank -- 27
Heath rank -- 13
My rank -- 48 |
| The Bills have signaled a desire to find a complement to James Cook. Particularly, they've seemed interested in finding an effective short-yardage back. Leonard Fournette and Damien Harris and Latavius Murray proved to not be it. Ray Davis is him. This is the back that the Bills have been looking for, and Buffalo used a Round 4 pick to secure his skill set. Even though he is going to be 25 years old as a rookie, the Bills drafted Davis ahead of Braelon Allen. Allen is a 235-pound monster and is the youngest back in the class. Buffalo drafted Davis ahead of Audric Estime. He weighs 230 pounds and was statistically the best pure rusher from this class. |
| Why would the Bills draft a 25-year-old RB ahead of those two? He's going to play, right? He might play a lot! Davis can contribute on passing downs, in short-yardage situations, and he's shown flashes of explosive play creation that might warrant a starting job at some point in his career. |
| This offense is going to run the ball a ton. I'm not sure how much of it will be accounted for by Cook, though. |
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| Davis isn't the only threat to backfield snaps, either. Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady used Samuel in the backfield a ton the last time that we saw him (Christian McCaffrey missed most of that season, so Brady was desperate for answers. I'm not projecting Curtis Samuel for 200+ rushing yards in 2024). |
| Unless Cook scores a bunch of long touchdowns, he's going to have a really difficult time producing the type of top-end outcome that would make me regret passing on him at his ADP. I'd rather have a beer, I mean, receiver. |
| George Pickens |
Jamey rank -- 45
Dave rank -- 40
Heath rank -- 40
My rank -- 70 |
| Sorry, Heath! If Brandon Aiyuk is traded to Pittsburgh, it is over. If not, I'm fine missing out on an Arthur Smith+Russell Wilson team-up. It could be cool. I've got lots of exciting players that I can draft in the top 50. I'm good. Best of luck to you who take the plunge. If Pickens is good, it will probably be pretty entertaining. He could have a huge year! |
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| Joe Mixon |
Jamey rank -- 41
Dave rank -- 43
Heath rank -- 53
My rank -- 71 |
| If you go to Twitter and search "@Jagibbs_23 Joe Mixon" and you will find a whole myriad of reasons why I am out. |
| Just like this: |
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| There are so many reasons. |
| Chris Godwin |
Jamey rank -- 56
Dave rank -- 60
Heath rank -- 56
My rank -- 63 |
| It was actually very hard to find any WR that I had ranked lower than the FFT consensus. I don't have a strong stance on Godwin. People seem to be expecting a strong year from the slot. I don't know that a move to the slot necessarily impacts him in any positive way. |
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| More slot routes and fewer downfield opportunities feels likely to lower the Fantasy ceiling for Godwin. On top of that, rookie Jalen McMillan has been a recipient of steady praise all offseason and has looked the part in preseason. I've watched every preseason route, he looks smooth and is open often. I expect that he'll present more target competition than previous WR3 options (not including Antonio Brown) that have played in this offense. |
| Terry McLaurin |
Jamey rank -- 58
Dave rank -- 56
Heath rank -- 63
My rank -- 72 |
| The horizontal raid offense is back. Cool guy Kliff Kingsbury gets another chance at designing an offense, and his WR1 is Terry McLaurin. Are we excited? Better yet, he has a rookie QB whose propensity for scrambling and taking sacks resulted in me projecting the Commanders for just the 20th-most receptions even though I am expecting this to be the fastest-paced offense in the NFL. Scrambles and sacks do not produce targets. Wide receivers need targets to score. |
| Maybe the new offense might unlock McLaurin's catch-and-run ability. I'm not going to be the one who benefits if so. There are so many players in this range who I prefer. |
| Zamir White |
Jamey rank -- 63
Dave rank -- 57
Heath rank -- 61
My rank -- 96 |
| Zamir White checks so many boxes as a potential trap. His preseason usage has been extremely weird, too. Antonio Pierce is a quirky guy, maybe he just does things a little bit differently than most. I'm not overreacting to the preseason usage. I just don't see it for White as a Fantasy producer. |
| Even in an ideal scenario, White is an early-downs only RB who doesn't offer target upside and plays in an offense that Vegas has implied for the 27th-highest point total. Someone else can draft him. |
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| I am higher than the FFT crew on these players: |
| Deebo Samuel |
Jamey rank -- 20
Dave rank -- 26
Heath rank -- 41
My rank -- 11 |
| If Brandon Aiyuk is traded, Deebo Samuel projects as my WR3 behind only CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill. If Aiyuk is not traded, he projects as my WR14, behind Drake London and ahead of Chris Olave and Malik Nabers. The production for Samuel when Aiyuk has been off of the field is absurd. |
| Nico Collins |
Jamey rank -- 23
Dave rank -- 29
Heath rank -- 39
My rank -- 13 |
| If you've been reading the newsletter or following my work, you surely know about Nico Collins. I put you on game last offseason. He's one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Top-10, easily. Maybe top-five. I'm crazy, right? |
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| Putting Collins in this offense with C.J. Stroud and Bobby Slowik is a cheat code. I want him on my Fantasy team. Maybe his targets will drop a bit with Stefon Diggs on the team. Probably. He could score more touchdowns. He could simply play way more snaps. He was hurt on and off in 2023. Collins ranked 54th at WR in routes run in 2023. He ranked 12th in total PPR points. |
| Nico Collins is my favorite player to draft. It feels so good every time that I click on his name. This offense is going to be so fun to watch as long as we don't get a bunch of Joe Mixon runs. Please don't do it to us, Bobby. Please, Bobby! |
| De'Von Achane |
Jamey rank -- 28
Dave rank -- 34
Heath rank -- 46
My rank -- 19 |
| If you ain't first, you're last. |
| Trey McBride |
Jamey rank -- 47
Dave rank -- 46
Heath rank -- 27
My rank -- 26 |
| I want De'Von Achane because several data points suggest that he is a historical outlier. I want De'Von Achane because I believe in his coach. Both reasons apply to Trey McBride, to a lesser extent. He's my TE1 for Fantasy in 2024, and I really really really like the profiles for Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews. And, of course, Travis Kelce will probably score a ton of points. Dalton Kincaid could put up a massive Year 2, I see it too. |
| McBride is the first tight end that I would take. He led all tight ends in targets and first downs per route run in his first taste of real NFL action. Only George Kittle (the best historical yard per route run producer at the TE position) averaged more yards per route run than McBride in 2023. This is what we saw from him as a collegiate pass-catcher, too. |
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| Shoutout Kyle Pitts, of course. |
| McBride now has Marvin Harrison Jr. to scare the pants off of opposing defensive coordinators. MHJ was double-teamed at a higher rate than any WR that Matt Harmon has ever evaluated at the collegiate level. He's a problem. He'll be stretching defenses to the breaking point, opening up space for McBride to run over would-be tacklers in one-on-one situations over the middle of the field. The dude weighs 260 pounds. You cannot hip-drop tackle, good luck bringing him down. |
| Jonathon Brooks |
Jamey rank -- 84
Dave rank -- 79
Heath rank -- 74
My rank -- 59 |
| Upside. I want this upside. The rookie could be producing like a top-five PPR RB during the Fantasy playoffs. I really believe he is a special talent and has a skill set that is perfect for Fantasy. I also am cautiously optimistic in Bryce Young (reasoning here) and Carolina's offense (reasoning). |
| I believe that if you are intentional and patient, you can bridge the gap until Brooks arrives. |
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| Xavier Worthy |
Jamey rank -- 99
Dave rank -- 109
Heath rank -- 86
My rank -- 64 |
| He just moves differently. The ease with which he has gotten behind defenses in preseason is scary. If you wanna learn about him as a player, I wrote about Worthy earlier this offseason. I want this upside. |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
Jamey rank -- 98
Dave rank -- 108
Heath rank -- 94
My rank -- 65 |
| I'm pretty in on the JSN bounce-back. I did not realize how much more in I would be than the FFT crew. I'm gonna have to find a time soon to chop it up with them because this ranking shocked me. Of course, his 2021 season at Ohio State was nutso. And there were plenty of 2023 signals that Smith-Njigba is good , even though a good portion of that data was accumulated while making a recovery from an injury that prevented him from receiving valuable reps leading up to his rookie campaign. I watched every route that he ran last year (I have no life). He looked good to me! I want to place some bets on him, at the very least. If you rank him around 100th overall, you probably are going to end up with little or no exposure. I think that's a mistake. He could rebound in a big way in Year 2. I'm super excited for Seattle's offense under Ryan Grubb. Things could look entirely different under the new regime. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. |
Jamey rank -- 96
Dave rank -- 92
Heath rank -- 85
My rank -- 67 |
| Give me BTJ all day late in drafts. Like Worthy, he just moves different. You can watch all of his routes here. |
| Rome Odunze |
Jamey rank -- 97
Dave rank -- 92
Heath rank -- 93
My rank -- 68 |
| He's just so good. He feels inevitable. Is a 32-year-old Keenan Allen really going to keep this level of a talent off of the field? I'm also much higher on Caleb Williams. He has an FFT consensus rank of 113, but I have Williams at 86th overall. |
| Jayden Daniels |
Jamey rank -- 87
Dave rank -- 98
Heath rank -- 105
My rank -- 77 |
| He's a Fantasy cheat code. I want this upside. |
| Kimani Vidal |
Jamey rank -- 200
Dave rank -- Outside of the top 200
Heath rank -- 166
My rank -- 128 |
| For what it's worth, I'm also a bit higher on J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards than the FFT crew. I want to get me a piece of this backfield. There are a few ambiguous situations that I try to leave every draft with a piece of -- the Chargers backfield, Green Bay's pass-catchers, and Kansas City's pass-catchers -- I don't know who is going to produce in these situations, but I feel pretty confident that someone is going to prove to be a Fantasy value. |
| In the case of L.A.'s backfield, why not take a shot on the cheapest and youngest option? Check this thread out for some Chargers offensive line hype and to watch all of Vidal's preseason touches. For what it's worth, I liked the Round 6 rookie's collegiate profile. He was efficient as a rusher even while handling a massive workload. He was great at avoiding tackles and contributed on passing downs. He could be a thing at the NFL level! We've seen more random running backs than this succeed. |
| Tiered Rankings Update |
| If you missed Monday's newsletter, no worries! Below, you can find my up-to-date tiered rankings. I just moved Curtis Samuel (turf toe) down and am very sad about it. |
Tier 1 -- Cheat Codes
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| (These tiered rankings are representative of how I'm drafting in half-PPR formats. My updated non-PPR and full-PPR rankings will be live on SportsLine on Wednesday.) |
| Players in bold are ones that I have ranked significantly ahead of ADP. I highly recommend being sensitive to the site that is hosting your draft. Each draft is different. You might be able to get a player who I rank in my top-20 in Round 3 or 4 on some sites. The more aware of where discrepancies in my rankings and ADP exist, the more value you will be likely to scoop up throughout your draft. |
1. Christian McCaffrey
2. CeeDee Lamb
3. Tyreek Hill |
| Tier 2 -- Potential Cheat Codes |
4. Breece Hall
5. Bijan Robinson |
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| Scott Barrett is a smart dude! He believes that the potential top-end outcome for the few remaining bellcow running backs is so high that those three should be the first players selected in Fantasy. That thinking makes some sense to me, which is why I place Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson in a tier of their own above Ja'Marr Chase and a bunch of other elite receivers. In my opinion, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb are cheat codes in their own right -- they don't project for quite the gargantuan point total that CMC put up last year, but they do both project for more points than I've ever projected a WR for. |
| Tier 3 -- Dawgs |
| You can't go wrong in this tier. A lot of people complain about picking from the back of the round, which I get from the perspective of missing out on the cheat codes at the top of the draft. That's always the case, though. Picking in the back half sucks. Your league really should have instituted a third-round reversal by this point to at least attempt to mitigate the disadvantage. |
| Anyway, enough complaining! The players in this tier are absolute dawgs. Any one of them could finish as the top scoring Fantasy WR in 2024. |
6. Ja'Marr Chase
7. A.J. Brown
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown
9. Justin Jefferson
10. Garrett Wilson
11. Deebo Samuel
12. Puka Nacua
13. Nico Collins |
| Tier 4 -- Scared money don't make money |
| You've gotta make a pick. I know that these don't feel like Round 2 picks. What are you gonna do? Draft Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor because that feels "safer?" Henry is a 30-year old running back, and the DraftSharks Injury Predictor has him as the "safest" pick of those three. |
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| None of the picks in this range are going to feel good. That's the nature of the beast. There's a lot of ambiguity in 2024 as young players step into larger roles. That presents us with a lot of upside! Let's focus on the potential for how cool it could be if these players thrive in 2024 rather than suffering in advance anticipating these Round 2 picks coming back to bite us. |
14. Marvin Harrison Jr.
15. Jaylen Waddle
16. Drake London
17. Kyren Williams
18. Jahmyr Gibbs
19. De'Von Achane |
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| Check out this historical analysis done by the great Ryan Heath. Don't be afraid to bet on De'Von Achane. If it does not pay off, everything will be alright. We will get through this together. |
| Tier 5 -- I feel solid about all of these picks |
| Once you hit Round 3, it's time to consider grabbing an elite tight end. "What are the trends that are gonna define 2024 that we don't know yet?" My former CBS colleague Ben Gretch (subscribe to his substack and learn to make smarter Fantasy football decisions! ) posed that question in relation to the tight end position. He believes that the 2024 Fantasy TE group is stronger and deeper at the top than ever before, and I agree. The profiles of Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, and George Kittle are all extremely strong. I try to always land one of that bunch. That is not always realistic, as sometimes I find elite players like Nico Collins or Jaylen Waddle somehow available in Round 3. That's a good problem to have, though! |
| Here's how I'd sort out the elite tight ends and the rest of Tier 5: |
20. Brandon Aiyuk
21. Jonathan Taylor
22. Derrick Henry
23. Isiah Pacheco
24. Chris Olave
25. Malik Nabers
26. Trey McBride
27. Sam LaPorta
28. Davante Adams
29. DeVonta Smith
30. DJ Moore
31. Travis Kelce
32. Mark Andrews |
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| Tier 6 -- Quarterbacks are on the menu! |
33. Josh Jacobs
34. DK Metcalf
35. Cooper Kupp
36. Josh Allen
37. Mike Evans
38. Lamar Jackson
39. Jalen Hurts
40. Patrick Mahomes
41. Kyle Pitts
42. Saquon Barkley
43. Travis Etienne
44. Anthony Richardson
45. George Kittle
46. Dalton Kincaid |
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| Rachaad White is poised to handle a massive workload and was the Fantasy RB4 in PPR formats in 2023, but I can't help but fall in love with Tampa Bay's Round 4 rookie RB Bucky Irving. |
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| Tier 7 |
47. Rachaad White
48. James Cook
49. Kenneth Walker
50. Rashee Rice
51. Diontae Johnson
52. Michael Pittman
53. Christian Kirk
54. Amari Cooper
55. Tee Higgins
56. Tank Dell
57. Stefon Diggs |
| Tier 8 |
58. David Montgomery
59. Jonathan Brooks
60. Calvin Ridley
61. C.J. Stroud
62. Zay Flowers
63. Chris Godwin
64. Xavier Worthy
65. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
66. Keenan Allen
67. Christian Watson
68. Brian Thomas Jr.
69. Rome Odunze
70. George Pickens |
| If Pickens does not end up as Brandon Aiyuk's teammate, then he could put up a monster season in Year 3. I'm pretty worried about Pittsburgh's offense, though. All of the Steelers (other than Najee Harris. This is feeling like another miserable Arthur Smith season . Please feel better soon, Jaylen Warren!) have been moving down my rankings. Pittsburgh played Russell Wilson and Justin Fields for the entire second preseason game and only put three points on the board! |
| If Aiyuk is traded to Pittsburgh, Pickens would project as a barely-usable Fantasy option. If I knew that Aiyuk was going to be a Steeler, I'd rank Pickens as a borderline top-100 pick. He'd be in the same range as DeAndre Hopkins and Ladd McConkey. |
| I recently moved two players into Tier 8 that had previously sat in the same range as McConkey. Brian Thomas Jr. has been the most impressive receiver that I have watched this preseason. Odunze's ascent feels inevitable and Caleb Williams looks locked and loaded to deliver a huge statistical season. Patience will likely be required with both of these rookie receivers, and neither may ever reach the top to their range of outcomes. Of course there is risk involved with betting on rookie receivers. The top to their range of outcomes is so exciting, though! |
| Hitting on these types of bets give you a real chance to put together a team that can win a Fantasy championship. And hey, if you're a believer in McConkey maybe you throw him in this tier. The same logic could apply. If you're a Chase Brown believer, this is the range to make sure that you get a chance to make that upside bet. There are a bunch of players that get drafted in the fifth and sixth rounds of Fantasy drafts that I have little interest in, so I often end up looking at a draft board where my top-ranked player (usually Jonathan Brooks) is way down the actual draft board. The aggressiveness that I choose to approach this part of the draft with usually depends on how I feel about the draft room. If it feels like a room where I can afford to let a player slip another round to try to gain the most possible value with each pick, and if the slipping player does not solve an immediate problem for my roster, then I let them slip. If I already have drafted Achane, I'm probably letting Brooks slip here. |
| Tier 9 |
71. Joe Mixon
72. Terry McLaurin
73. James Conner
74. Najee Harris
75. Alvin Kamara
76. Raheem Mostert
77. Jayden Daniels
78. Rhamondre Stevenson
79. Javonte Williams
80. Aaron Jones
81. Devin Singletary
82. D'Andre Swift
83. Dak Prescott
84. Joe Burrow
85. Caleb Williams
86. Tyjae Spears
87. Tony Pollard
88. Jaylen Warren
89. Jake Ferguson
90. Jayden Reed
91. Jordan Love
92. Kyler Murray
93. Joshua Palmer |
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| Last Wednesday's newsletter focused on sleepers. One of the categories that I placed players into was sleepers with "injury-contingent upside." You'll find some of those players sprinkled throughout the upcoming tiers. |
| The top tier that I created for injury-contingent sleepers was labeled the "Amethyst Tier." I like making tiers. |
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| Tier 10 |
94. Zamir White
95. Courtland Sutton
96. Ladd McConkey
97. Blake Corum
98. DeAndre Hopkins
99. Evan Engram
100. Brock Bowers
101. Zack Moss
102. Chase Brown
103. Gus Edwards
104. J.K. Dobbins
105. Trey Benson
106. Jaylen Wright
107. David Njoku |
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| Tier 11 |
108. Keon Coleman (wow this is higher than consensus? If you believe in Coleman's talent, you absolutely should be drafting him. I am skeptical, and I still have him above consensus because the preseason role has been so promising.)
109. Rashid Shaheed
110. Curtis Samuel (sad)
111. Hollywood Brown
112. Pat Freiermuth
113. Tyler Lockett
114. Darnell Mooney
115. Josh Downs
116. Jordan Addison
117. Austin Ekeler
118. Brian Robinson
119. Ezekiel Elliott
120. Chuba Hubbard
121. Zach Charbonnet
122. Bucky Irving
123. Ray Davis
124. Braelon Allen
125. Tyler Allgeier
126. Tyrone Tracy
127. Antonio Gibson
128. Kimani Vidal
129. Dontayvion Wicks
130. Brock Purdy
131. Jameson Williams
132. Brandin Cooks |
| Lots of bold names here, huh? This tier mostly reflects a difference in philosophy between how I'm drafting and how the public seems to. I want to get my hands on these premium handcuff lottery tickets. I'm never drafting the quarterbacks and tight ends in this range. Cole Kmet? Yuck! (He's actually looked really good this preseason, but the Bears seem to be set on giving Gerald Everett a large role and there's only one football to be spread among all of the Chicago pass-catching options.) |
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| If Greg Dortch was six-foot-three, I'd draft him in Round 2. He and Marvin Harrison Jr. would be the coolest WR duo in the league. If I was six-foot-three I would be in the NBA. Probably not, actually, but would you believe that I once dunked a basketball on a 10-foot rim at the height of five-foot-nine? I'm much shorter than Heath Cummings, but I'm still two inches taller than Greg Dortch! |
| Tier 12 |
133. Khalil Shakir
134. Xavier Legette
135. Romeo Doubs
136. Jerry Jeudy
137. DeMario Douglas
138. Jalen McMillan
139. Jahan Dotson
140. Dallas Goedert
141. Luke Musgrave
142. Demarcus Robinson (I'm wondering if Robinson is even worth drafting lately. I wonder if Jordan Whittington might cut into his snap share.)
143. Greg Dortch
144. Ja'Lynn Polk
145. Adonai Mitchell
146. Jermaine Burton
147. Ricky Pearsall
148. Jerome Ford
149. Nick Chubb
150. Rico Dowdle
151. Khalil Herbert
152. MarShawn Lloyd (this makes me so sad. I've had him ranked as a borderline top-100 pick at times this summer. Hopefully his hammy heals up and we see him healthy and in action as a rookie)
153. Ty Chandler
154. Ben Sinnott
155. Justin Herbert
156. Tua Tagovailoa
157. Jared Goff
158. Kirk Cousins
159. T.J. Hockenson
160. Dalton Schultz
161. Noah Fant
162. Tyler Conklin
163. Taysom Hill
164. D'Onta Foreman
165. Justice Hill
166. Will Shipley
167. Audric Estime
168. Trevor Lawrence
169. Geno Smith
170. Drake Maye
171. Daniel Jones
172. Justin Fields
173. Hunter Henry
174. Geno Smith
175. Dylan Laube
176. Matthew Stafford
177. Aaron Rodgers
178. Sam Darnold
179. Bo Nix
180. Jaleel McLaughlin
181. Baker Mayfield
182. Will Levis
183. Colby Parkinson
184. Bryce Young |
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| Tier 14 -- Why are we still drafting? |
185. Cole Kmet
186. Michael Mayer
187. Juwan Johnson
188. Greg Dulcich
189. Isaiah Likely
190. Adam Thielen
191. Jakobi Meyers
192. Mike Williams
193. Rashod Bateman
194. Michael Wilson
195. Jalen Tolbert
196. Gabe Davis
197. Derek Carr
198. Russell Wilson
199. Michael Penix Jr.
200. Chigoziem Okonkwo
201. Zach Ertz (ooh sleeper alert! Jk, I just found it funny that I was making a soon-to-be 34 year-old Zach Ertz's name bold)
202. Tyler Boyd
203. K.J. Osborn
204. Andrei Iosivas
205. Malachi Corley
206. Luke McCaffrey
207. Jordan Whittington
208. Jacob Cowing
209. Malik Washington
210. Johnny Wilson
211. Brenden Rice
212. Cade Otton
213. Jonnu Smith
214. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
215. Dameon Pierce
216. Tank Bigbsy
217. Darius Slayton
218. Jalin Hyatt
219. Kendrick Bourne
220. Keaton Mitchell
221. Kendre Miller
222. Roschon Johnson
223. Carson Steele
224. Blake Watson
225. Alexander Mattison
226. AJ Dillon
227. Samaje Perine
228. Jase McClellan
229. Theo Johnson
230. Gerald Everett
231. Mike Gesicki
232. Gardner Minshew
233. Jacoby Brissett
234. Aidan O'Connell
235. Hayden Hurst
236. Will Dissly (the public doesn't seem to be very interested in Will Dissly this year, curious.)
237. Kylen Granson
238. Erick All Jr.
239. Cade Stover
240. Wan'Dale Robinson
241. Elijah Mitchell
242. Quentin Johnston
243. Javon Baker
244. Jordan Mason
245. Eric Gray
246. Cam Akers
247. Sione Vaki
248. Tre Tucker
249. Trenton Irwin
250. Jared Wiley, I did it, I typed 250 names! Bring on the 2024 season, let's go! |
| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning during the regular season! Until then, we'll be rocking three days a week. Use your newfound free toilet time wisely. Maybe learn a new language over the next few Tuesdays and Thursdays. You learned how to make sense of my ramblings and made-up stats this summer! You are capable of so much! What might you do with this newfound freedom? The world is yours! I will be sleeping. And I hope to occasionally use my free time on Tuesdays and Thursdays to go outside, maybe get some grass and sun on my skin. Take some deep breaths before we lock in for another fun and chaotic ride. NFL is so back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! |
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