Housing and Rates Having Tough Time Finding Momentum

Stronger Today, Sideways in General Bonds improved overnight on a combination of friendly central bank news in Japan and softer economic data in Europe. From there, bond traders were relieved that PCE prices weren't any higher than they were considering the warning embedded in yesterday's GDP data. Chicago PMI tried briefly to push toward higher rates, but buyers quickly regained control and didn't give it up again through the close. The gains are nice, but rates remain exceptionally range bound in the bigger picture. Econ Data / EventsCore PCE inflation m/m0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev Core PCE inflation y/y 4.6 vs 4.5 f'cast, 4.7 prev last month revised up 0.1 Employment cost index1.2 vs 1.1 f'cast, 1.0 prev Chicago PMI48.6 vs 43.5 f'cast, 43.8 prev Consumer Sentiment63.5 vs 63.5 f'cast/prev Market Movement Recap10:00 AM Stronger overnight. Gains extend slightly after 8:30am data and bouncing back after Chicago PMI. 10yr down 5.9bps at 3.469. MBS up 7 ticks (.22). 10:40 AM Recovering now after mid-morning stumble. 10yr down 8bps at 3.448. MBS up almost 3/8ths. 01:55 PM 5.0 coupons up at least 7 ticks (.22), but would be a bit higher without illiquidity. 10yr yields near lows of day, down 9bps at 3.439. 04:37 PM Month-end positioning and FRC's after hours slide are keeping bonds bid into the 5pm close. 10yr down 9.8bps at 3.43. MBS up 3/8ths.

April 28, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Stronger Today, Sideways in General Stronger Today, Sideways in General Bonds improved overnight on a combination of friendly central bank news in Japan and softer economic data in Europe. From there, bond traders were relieved that PCE p... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Housing and Rates Having Tough Time Finding Momentum Mortgage rates fell nicely to start the week but only after rising rather abruptly in the previous two weeks. That said, short term ups and downs are just a sideshow in the bigger picture where rates have been locked in a pattern of indecision t... (read more) Rob Chrisman Non-QM Execution, Fees , Appraisal, DPA Products; STRATMOR on Tech; Comparison on Loan Level Price Adjustments “Rob, earlier this week you posted some ‘units funded’ information from the MBA showing a dramatic decline from a few years ago... Dollar-wise, certainly we’re nowhere near the $4+ trillion funded in 2021. What are some of the other MBA thoughts abou... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.59% -0.08% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.59% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.20% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.22% -0.03 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.78% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.19% -0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/28 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.98% -0.07% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.43% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/27 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.55% +0.12 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% +0.14 0.56 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.12 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.42 +0.36 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.42 +0.36 UMBS 5.5 100.80 +0.28 GNMA 5.0 99.47 +0.25 GNMA 5.5 100.63 +0.23 Pricing as of: 4/28 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.4277 -0.1003 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.009 -0.072 5 YR Treasury 3.486 -0.112 7 YR Treasury 3.465 -0.112 10 YR Treasury 3.428 -0.100 30 YR Treasury 3.678 -0.078 Pricing as of: 4/28 5:31PM EST Latest Video Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March, as expected Fed's aggressive rate policy caused the banking crisis, says Greenwich Weal... Fed: Silicon Valley Bank failed to manage basic interest rate, liquidity ri... April's final read on consumer sentiment remains at 63.5 Around the Web Federal Reserve Fed's Review of SVB Failure Calculated Risk Blog Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in March CNBC Fed report on SVB collapse faults bank's managers and central bank regulators Eye on Housing Housing Affordability Expectations Improve CNBC First Republic's stock poised to rise for second day as regional bank searches for rescue deal Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen" Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Still Accelerating YoY Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in March; Up 1.0% Year-over-year CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors mull over key economic data Eye on Housing Housing Share of GDP Lower in the First Quarter of 2023 CNBC Euro zone economy ekes out 0.1% growth in first quarter, misses expectations as Germany stagnates Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.3% in March; Spending increased Slightly Eye on Housing Economic Growth Weakens in the First Quarter

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