Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75

Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75 After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels in 20 years, the yield curve was ready for a bounce today (i.e. shorter maturities were ready to outperform longer maturities). This pattern often coincides with MBS outperformance and today was no exception. The short end got a push from several Fed speakers who mentioned that 50bp hikes would still be historically fast and that traders could "pivot" their anxiety to focus on the eventual ceiling as opposed to how quickly we get there. Meanwhile 10yr yields moved moderately higher, which is a decent enough result given the 260k vs 200k NFP beat. Econ Data / EventsNonfarm Payrolls261k vs 200k f'cast last month revised to 315k from 263k Unemployment Rate3.7 vs 3.6 f'cast, 3.5 prev Earnings0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast/prev Labor Force Participation Rate 62.2 vs 62.3 prev Market Movement Recap08:34 AM Bonds were modestly weaker overnight and are losing more ground after the NFP data. 10yr up 5bps at 4.2. MBS down just over a quarter point. 09:07 AM MBS back to unchanged and 10yr only 1.4 bps higher at 4.16%. 12:34 PM MBS holding in stronger territory, currently up 5 ticks (.16). 10yr yields up 1.8bps at 4.167. Shorter-dated yields are outperforming. 04:04 PM MBS outperforming, still in positive territory, up a quarter point on the day, but just over an eighth of a point off the best levels. 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.171.

November 4, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75 Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75 After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels in 20 years, the yield curve was ready for a bounce today (i.e. shorter maturities were ready to ou... (read more) Rob Chrisman Home Equity, Sales, Tax Service, Subservicer Audit Products; Webinars and Training I was walking down North Wabash in Chicago yesterday and a beggar (is that politically correct?) yelled out at me, “You’re the reason this country has to put directions on cereal boxes!” Simple things like cereal boxes, shampoo, or soup didn’t used t... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.29% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.29% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.75% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.84% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.95% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.89% +0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/4 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.95% -0.13 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 6.29% -0.07 1.20 5/1 Yr. ARM 5.95% -0.01 0.20 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/3 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.06% -0.10 0.73 15 Yr. Fixed 6.37% -0.02 1.05 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.55% +0.02 0.70 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/2 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 96.41 +0.42 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 96.41 +0.42 UMBS 5.5 98.53 +0.36 GNMA 5.0 97.02 +0.36 GNMA 5.5 99.14 +0.30 Pricing as of: 11/4 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.1605 +0.0115 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.663 -0.055 5 YR Treasury 4.334 -0.032 7 YR Treasury 4.254 -0.017 10 YR Treasury 4.161 +0.012 30 YR Treasury 4.258 +0.074 Pricing as of: 11/4 5:31PM EST Latest Video Banks pull back loans from the commercial real estate sector Jobs report shows labor market remains tight, says Richmond Fed President T... Wage gains are adding to inflation, says KMPG's Diane Swonk The 3pm Bond Report - November 4, 2022 Around the Web Wall Street Journal Fed's Collins Signals Support for Slowing Pace of Interest Rate Increase Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Weekly Inventory Up 40% Year-over-year; Now Above Same Week in 2020 CNBC Fed officials Barkin and Collins see possibility for slower rate hikes ahead Calculated Risk Blog Early Q4 GDP Tracking and Upward Revisions to Q3 GDP CNBC U.S. payrolls surged by 261,000 in October, better than expected as hiring remains strong Calculated Risk Blog Comments on October Employment Report CNBC Interest rate hikes have made financing a car pricier especially if you have bad credit. How much you could pay CNBC 2-year Treasury yield hits fresh 15-year high ahead of key labor market data Calculated Risk Blog ISM Services Index Decreased to 54.4% in October CNBC October job growth could be slowest in nearly 2 years, but unemployment remains extremely low Brookings Inst. The labor market needs to softenbut not as much as some think CNBC Labor costs show slower rise, while trade deficit widens and jobless claims nudge lower CNBC Bank of England must balance rate hikes and economic risks, chief economist says

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