High stakes gambling

Good morning Voornaam,

You can turn your tax into solar power with Futureneers this month, but you have to act quickly to take advantage of the Section 12BA opportunity. Find out more in this article>>>

Local company news:

MultiChoice is taking a risky and very interesting approach in the potential Canal+ transaction. After a non-binding offer came in from the French media group, it seems as though they were popping the champagne too early. MultiChoice put an abrupt end to the party by coming out with an announcement that the offer price is too low, leading to oeufs on their faces.
There are several nuances here, including what looks like a potential mandatory offer that Canal+ might need to make to shareholders at a lower price than the price in the non-binding offer letter. This could put a floor price on MultiChoice for now, with the potential upside of Canal+ or a new bidder putting in a higher offer than the R105 that Canal+ initially put on the table. Here's the risk though: if the mandatory offer rule is interpreted based on voting rights rather than economic rights, then the threshold hasn't been breached!
So, everything could fall over and MultiChoice's share price could plummet back down to where it was, despite the company claiming that its valuation is much higher. You've gotta love M&A!
Another excellent example of M&A at the highest level is Sun International's acquisition of Peermont. The circular has now been released, showing the details of the transaction and just how much the advisors will be making from it. It also shows the substantial debt that Sun International will be taking on here. Naturally, I included that in Ghost Bites this morning.
Also look out for news from Italtile, Mondi, RCL Foods and Vukile, all available in Ghost Bites>>>
It was interesting to note Vukile's commentary around apparel sales at the end of 2023. The latest Ghost Wrap podcast recaps the clothing retailer updates from The Foschini Group, Mr Price, Truworths and Pepkor. This podcast is designed for busy people just like you, with thanks to Mazars. You'll find it here>>>
International company news:
Thanks to data and automation specialists B2IT, Magic Markets moves from shoes to cars this week. We tackled the latest earnings from Tesla (always an exciting story, let's face it) as well as how Volkswagen is doing a traditional stalwart in this tough industry. As always, there's much to learn about both companies in this podcast>>>
Business and politics really don't mix well together. In a democracy where people tend to be split fairly evenly down the middle, having a strong political view is an almost guaranteed way to upset half your customers.
Some businesses thrive on having a political position, choosing to appeal strongly to half the customer base rather than weakly to everyone. This works in some instances. It doesn't work when you're trying to sell a lot of burgers or coffees to consumers.
For evidence of just how dumb it is for a large company to take the route of political alignment, we turn to Starbucks (where the workers union posted in support of Palestine) and McDonald's (which gave discounts to Israeli soldiers). According to CNBC, both companies suffered to a knock to sales as a result.
See? It doesn't matter which side a business supports. The point is that it shouldn't support anyone. It should sell burgers and coffees and let people get on with their days.
And in fairness to Starbucks, it was the problematic Starbucks Workers United union that made the post without the company's permission. Talk about adding insult to injury after all the labour issues that Starbucks has had.
Have a great day!

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Currencies, commodities and rates: TreasuryONE Market Update

With the spotlight on Jerome Powell's firm stance against immediate interest rate cuts, along with the strong labour market data last week, the market has had to significantly adjust its expectations for the March meeting. There is a lower probability of rate cuts than before, with the market pushing those expectations out to June.
Predictions for total cuts this year appear optimistic, which is now a difficult situation for equities as Treasury yields are rising (the 10-year sits at 4.13% this morning). The dollar, on the other hand, is enjoying an 11-week high, boosted by strong PMI data as well.
The rand has now moved above R19 to the dollar. Although local news like the Budget Speech later in the month may play a role in the rand, the reality is that we are mostly driven by what is happening with the dollar.
Any good news? Well, at least platinum ZAR is above R17,100 again, so there's that! Brent Crude is a touch higher at $78.18
As a Ghost Mail reader, you have a wonderful early bird opportunity to register for the 2024 post-budget panel discussion hosted by TreasuryONE, Econometrix and ETM Analytics. I absolutely cannot recommend this enough and I will also be attending to learn from the panel. Get it in your diaries now already by registering at this link>>>

LISTEN: Magic Markets podcast

READ: Satrix launches Satrix JSE Global Equity ETF

READ: Why are we losing our minds over Stanley cups?
(by Dominique Olivier)