| | | | Friday, May 31, 2024 | | Thursdays tend to be the slowest days around MLB, with teams traveling and often taking the opportunity to get some lesser-used role players into the lineup with day games around the schedule, and this week was no exception. | | So, as we typically do, today's newsletter isn't going to focus on players to add from Thursday's action – though, if you scroll down, there are a few candidates in the Standouts section to consider if they're available. Instead, we're looking ahead to this weekend's games to give you some names to keep an eye on, from struggling stars we'd like to see signs of life from to players we might be rushing to add when waivers run Sunday night. | | Frank Stampfl and Scott White broke down everything you need to know from Thursday's action, with a sneak peek at what to expect from Week 11's schedule, too, and we'll have a whole lot more of that for you come Monday. For now, here's your weekend viewing guide: | | | | What to watch this weekend | | | Just give us a reason to be optimistic …
| | Pablo Lopez, Twins @HOU, Friday – I haven't lost faith in Lopez at all , though I know plenty of you probably don't share that. A good outing here could go a long way toward restoring confidence in Lopez, whose strikeout and walk rates remain elite but who has had more trouble limiting troublesome contact than last season. The Astros have a couple of tough matchups in their lineup, to be sure, but they've been surprisingly beatable this season. We'd love to see Lopez continue that trend. | | Blake Snell, Padres vs. NYY, Sunday – I've been tempted to just not move Snell in my rankings at all as a statement of how certain I am that he is going to figure things out. As I wrote earlier this week , as bad as Snell has been this season, it's not even the worst of his career – he had a five-game stretch with an 11.94 ERA in 2019 and then immediately followed that up with a 12-strikeout outing that turned into a four-start stretch where he struck out 31 batters and allowed just four runs (before an injury kept him out for two months). In 2021, he had a five-start stretch with a 9.43 ERA between May and June; he followed up his worst start of that stretch with a 2.81 ERA over his final 13 starts of the season. This is just who Snell is, and there is rarely any rhyme or reason for why he struggles as badly as he does nor for why he turns things around without warning. Can I say with any confidence he'll do that this week against the Yankees? Absolutely not! But it wouldn't surprise me at all, and I am expecting it at some point. | | Framber Valdez , Astros vs. MIN, Saturday – I'm less certain Valdez is going to turn things around than the first two pitchers in this section, and less certain he'll be an impact, ace-level Fantasy pitcher even if he does, just because I'm not sure a low-strikeout rate pitcher matters as much in this pitching-rich environment, especially on an Astros team that no longer seems like a good bet to provide a ton of wins. That he's currently pitching to his 4.33 xERA from last season also suggests that he probably was pretty lucky to be as good as he was. I still believe a turnaround could come, but I'm not necessarily pounding the table for Valdez as a buy-low candidate right now. Let's see if he can prove me wrong. | | Joe Musgrove , Padres @KC, Saturday – In fairness to Musgrove, he's put together three pretty good outings in a row after a disastrous April, but his overall numbers are still quite poor – 5.66 ERA, 5.77 xERA, and a 20.6% K rate are all career-worst numbers for the 31-year-old. The problem is, I'm not sure there's one specific thing we should be looking for here – his velocity is down across the board, so we'd like to see that climb back up, but otherwise, the biggest issue is just that none of Musgrove's pitches has been as effective as they were last year. That kind of holistic struggle is hard to analyze, because the answer is, "Just hope he pitches better." Maybe he will, but the Royals are absolutely the kind of team that will punish you if you don't right now. He's a very risky start. | | Jordan Montgomery, Diamondbacks @NYM, Friday – The primary issue for Montgomery is that his strikeout rate is way down, mostly because his two primary whiff pitches, his curveball and changeup, just haven't been as effective. His velocity is also down 1.7 mph on his fastball, so it could be as simple as, if the velocity rises, Montgomery will pitch better. I'm willing to bet on that being the case, and it's worth noting that Montgomery's fastball velocity was a season-high 92.3 mph in his most recent start. Hopefully that's the start of his rebound. | | | | Still worth rostering? | | Charlie Morton, Braves vs. OAK, Sunday (94%) – The A's have been the solution to what ails a lot of pitchers so far this season, and I actually think he's a pretty fine streamer against them, despite being pretty down on Morton in general. But given the regression we've seen of late from Morton, he's kind of in make-or-break territory right now – I think he's severely over-rostered right now, and I bet everyone is going to agree with me if he struggles in this matchup. Even if he doesn't, I'd need to see something pretty special to view him as anything more than just a streaming option. | | Brayan Bello, Red Sox vs. DET, Sunday (84%) – There's still a lot Bello does right. He gets a lot of ground balls and generates weak contact, and his control remains quite solid, with a 7.5% groundball rate. However, despite throwing his slider more and generally getting pretty solid results from it, he still just isn't generating many strikeouts – his 22.1% mark is a career-high, but is still pretty much dead average. There have been some promising signs lately, but his results are still pretty mediocre. I want to see Bello take that step forward, but with how many great pitching performances are out there, he needs to give us a reason to keep him around beyond vague notions of upside. | | Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks @NYM (79%) – One significant change in Pfaadt's profile so far has been his dramatically improved quality of contact allowed, and if you saw that coming after he allowed 25 homers in 23 starts (including the playoffs) last season, well … my email address is [email protected] if you have any other hot tips I need to know about. In all seriousness, Pfaadt's current xERA is 2.88, significantly lower than his 4.16 ERA, and if that actually came to pass, he'd be a borderline ace. But he's also not getting many strikeouts overall, so any regression on the quality of contact could render him unusable for Fantasy. He's on a knife's edge right now, and a bad start here could make him droppable. | | Aaron Civale, Rays @BAL, Friday (57%) – I'm not even sure Civale deserved to be this widely rostered coming into the season, though I could at least see the case for it given his solid ERA and the gains he made as a strikeout pitcher after getting to the Rays last summer. After 11 starts with a 5.72 ERA, what's the justification? If you have Civale on your roster right now, you might as well hang on to him to see if he can figure something out against a tough Orioles lineup. | | Casey Mize, Tigers @BOS, Sunday (37%) – Mize has lost some heat off his fastball over the past few starts and it's revealed just how thin his margin for error is at this point, with a 6.56 ERA and just 16 strikeouts in 23.1 innings of work in May so far. He just hasn't found a combination of secondary pitches that works for him, and if his fastball is merely good rather than very good, he just doesn't have enough to consistently work through lineups. Even down to 37% rostered, he looks like one of the most over-rostered pitchers in the game barring a dramatic turnaround. | | | | Time to buy in? | | Hunter Brown , Astros vs. MIN, Sunday (42%) – Given how bad Brown has been for most of the past calendar year, I certainly understand being hesitant to buy in. But he's been pretty good in the month of May, sporting a 3.41 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 26.1 innings of work, with improved performance from much of his arsenal, especially his splitter and four-seamer. You'd like to see one of his breaking balls take a step forward, and that might be the next step for becoming a more consistent pitcher. It's what I'll be keeping a close eye on for him moving forward, and given the matchup here, I don't mind the idea of Brown as a streamer. | | Tylor Megill, Mets vs. ARI, Sunday (52%) – We've seen Megill pitch in this velocity band before and there was little to get excited about, so it's not the 95.8 mph average fastball velocity we're excited about here. It's the new splitter, which has been a monstrous pitch for him in the early going, accounting for five of his 20 strikeouts with a 63.6 whiff rate. His fastball has always been a good pitch, but the splitter might just be here to finish off Megill's arsenal, giving him a go-to putaway pitch he can lean on, especially against lefties. It's a tiny sample size of just 12 innings, so skepticism is warranted, but another good start here – especially something like his seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts from earlier in the week – might make Megill a must-add player this weekend. | | Ryan Weathers, Marlins vs. TEX, Saturday (39%) – We've seen some truly tantalizing flashes from Weathers, but little consistency, best exemplified by the stretch where he sandwiched one-strikeout efforts around a 10-strikeout outing back in April. Things have been a bit better lately, but his past two starts are still the only time so far Weathers has had consecutive outings with more strikeouts than innings pitched. Can he make it a third? His changeup and sweeper combo gives him the upside if he can find that consistency we've been looking for. | | Mitchell Parker, Nationals @CLE, Saturday (33%) – The Nationals rotation has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the game of late, and Parker might be the most pleasant surprise of them all. His 21.5% strikeout rate doesn't blow you away, but there's reason to think he might have upside beyond that, as both his splitter and slider have been really excellent swing and miss pitches. They are also his third- and fourth-most used pitches, which might explain the underwhelming strikeout rate. There's upside here, let's see if he can tap into it against a very contact-heavy Guardians lineup. | | Albert Suarez, Orioles vs. TB, Friday (7%) – Given their excellent home park and lineup, anyone starting for the Orioles has a chance to be a pretty useful Fantasy option. Suarez has started four games this season and has allowed just four runs with 18 strikeouts and five walks in 19.1 innings of work. On his own, Suarez isn't a terribly interesting player, though I think he could be a league-average pitcher most of the time. In Baltimore, that could make him a pretty interesting Fantasy option. | | News and Notes | | Ronald Acuña will undergo surgery on Tuesday to repair the torn ACL in his left knee. He's out for the season, but there's a chance he could be back in time for Opening Day in 2025. | | Gerrit Cole threw a 43-pitch simulated game on Thursday. Aaron Boone said Cole could begin a rehab assignment as early as next week, putting him on track for a late-June return if he avoids any setbacks. | | Pete Alonso is day-to-day after a CT scan confirmed no fractures in his right hand. He was out of the lineup Thursday. | | Zac Gallen left Thursday's start with a right hamstring strain, the same hamstring that's been giving him issues off and on for much of the season. We'll see if they put him on the IL this time to try to let it fully heal. . | | Rays manager Kevin Cash said Zach Efllin will throw a ramped up bullpen session Sunday before the Rays decide his next steps. Cash added that Eflin's back feels alright after Sunday, he could be cleared to return next week. | | Speaking of the Rays, Josh Lowe will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A this weekend and hopes to be activated on Tuesday, so it sure sounds like this injury is significantly less serious than the first time he was on the IL. | | Life, uh, finds a way. Clarke Schmidt was placed on the IL with a right lat strain and will be shut down for 4-6 weeks. Cody Poteet will start Saturday against the Giants, but this could open the door for Luis Gil to remain in the rotation even when Cole is ready. | | Brady Singer was scratched from his start Thursday due to an illness. | | Red Sox manager Alex Cora said he's optimistic Tyler O'Neill's stay on the IL will be a short one. O'Neill went on the IL Wednesday with right knee inflammation. | | Garrett Whitlock underwent internal brace surgery on his right elbow Thursday and will miss the rest of the season, though he could be back early next season given the shortened timetable for the internal brace recovery. | | Rhys Hoskins could be activated as soon as this weekend's series against the White Sox. | | Masataka Yoshida is set to begin swinging a bat in the coming days. He's been out since May 1 with an injured thumb. | | Pete Crow-Armstrong was recalled by the Cubs and Craig Counsell indicated the rookie could have a bigger role this time around. He has hist .188/.269/.290 so far in 82 career MLB plate appearances, but has remained a pretty productive hitter at Triple-A, so there's some appeal in categories leagues. | | Thursday's standouts | | Logan Gilbert, Mariners vs. HOU: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – We'll be happy to turn the page on May for Gilbert, who saw his strikeout rate collapse and his ERA inflate as a result. Gilbert's cutter has been the main issue in his May regression, as it has gone from a pitch with a .331 xwOBA in April to a .481 xwOBA in May, though Thursday, all of his hard pitches were the problem: Astros batters made contact with seven pitches thrown at least 90 mph, and they had an average exit velocity of 98.9 mph, with a homer, a triple, and a single allowed. It could have been even worse, frankly. I remain pretty optimistic about Gilbert, who is constantly tinkering, largely ditching the cutter in this one, notably. But, given his inconsistent command, these blowup stretches remain frustratingly common. | | Jack Flaherty, Tigers @BOS: 6.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Flaherty's ERA was a bit inflated in April, but that hasn't been the case in May, which he just finished off with his fifth quality start in as many tries. He struck out 40 with just five walks in 31.2 innings of work and honestly looks better than he ever has before – and this is a guy who once finished fourth in Cy Young voting! He has a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low walk rate, with comparable quality of contact metrics to his career rates. I don't necessarily trust he'll keep this level of performance up, but I also don't see much reason to make a lot of noise about him as a sell-high candidate either. | | Carlos Rodon, Yankees @LAA: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Rodon remains fine, but I still don't know if I see the path back to ace production here, either. His slider still looks excellent, and he has wisely been leaning on it more lately after ill-fated experiments with a cutter earlier on. But his fastball just hasn't had the same bite it had when he was at his best despite the velocity mostly being there. If you want to bet on Rodon rediscovering that form, I don't think it's a terrible idea, since he mostly looks fine, physically. It's just not the bet I'm looking to make. | | Nick Pivetta, Red Sox vs. DET: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Sure, it was a very good matchup, but it was still nice to see Pivetta get back on track after a pretty rough May since his return from that elbow injury. It was pretty much all fastball and sweeper in this one, as he threw his curveball, slider, and cutter just 19% of the time (down from 28.3% entering this one), and that kind of approach might make it tougher for Pivetta to pitch deeper into games. That's a concern for his ceiling, but Pivetta re-establishing his floor is more important for now. | | Christian Scott, Mets vs. ARI: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Scott hasn't been bad so far, but it sure feels like he's been a bit underwhelming so far, doesn't it? His fastball has been very good, as advertised, and he got five of his eight whiffs with it Thursday (albeit with just a middling 17% whiff rate on the pitch). It's the rest of the arsenal that just isn't impressing so far. His sweeper, splitter, and slider haven't been bad , necessarily, they just haven't generated whiffs like you want to see. Yet. I still think Scott has plenty of upside, so I'm holding where I can. | | Chris Paddack, Twins vs. KC: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – We didn't expect it coming into the season, but the Royals are a pretty scary matchup these days, and you don't have much margin for error against them. Paddack made a few mistakes, and I'm just not sure he has enough to consistently overcome mistakes against good lineups. That leaves him as an okay streamer against the right matchups, but only worth consistently rostering in H2H points leagues thanks to his RP eligibility. | | Spencer Arrighetti, Astros @SEA: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – The Mariners are on track for a major-league record in strikeouts, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see any pitcher finding success against them. Still, Arrighetti hadn't really shown the ability to take advantage of even very good matchups so far, so this was still a noteworthy performance. I'm not sure how much we can take from it, but it does still at least put Arrighetti in the streaming conversation moving forward. | | Patrick Sandoval, Angels vs. Yankees: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – I mean, knock me over with a feather. We talk about streaming options every day on the FBT pod and I didn't even once consider Sandoval as an option in this matchup. He threw the kitchen sink at the Yankees, using six pitches at least eight times each, and his nine whiffs on 102 pitches don't exactly do much to generate much enthusiasm here. That's baseball, Susyn, as the man said. | | Colin Rea, Brewers vs. CHC: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Rea has been surprisingly solid for the Brewers, now sporting a 3.77 ERA, but I don't think there's much to take from this one, either. He's a sinkerball pitcher who doesn't generate many ground balls or strikeouts, and he doesn't have especially good control either. Even in the streaming discussion, Rea belongs on the outside looking in for most leagues. | | Cody Bellinger, OF, Cubs – He's starting to make me look silly again. Bellinger is on quite a little hot streak, with multiple hits in five of his past six games, including a double and a homer Thursday, to bring his season-long OPS to .803. And he's doing that while once again dramatically, outperforming his expected stats; his xwOBA is actually down to .312, considerably worse than even last year's mediocre .327 mark. I still don't quite understand how he's doing this, and I remain inclined not to buy it, but every two-strike knock makes me look more and more stubborn. | | Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals – It's been a tough season for Pasquantino, who hit just his sixth homer Tuesday while sporting a .229 batting average. But, it's worth noting that the underlying numbers are much more impressive, with a .273 expected batting average and .490 xSLG, and Pasquantino is hitting more barrels and more balls to the pull side. It's not a profile you would expect to underperform, and I do think he's a pretty nice buy-low candidate right now. | | Christopher Morel, 3B, Cubs – I think the same is more or less true for Morel, who has the best plate discipline of his career by far, but has also seen his results in play regress in a significant way. The underlying numbers back that up to a point, as his expected wOBA on contact has slipped from .469 last season to .438 … except a .438 xwOBACON is still a terrific number, especially with his improved plate discipline. I think Morel might just be one of those guys who constantly frustrates us with his inconsistency, and I do worry there's at least some risk that the Cubs decide his disastrous defense just isn't worth it if he isn't hitting. But I do expect he'll hit better moving forward, and view him as a buy-low too. | | Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins – Jeffers pulled out of a deep slump in a big way Thursday, clubbing two homers after going 16 games without one. I do wonder if he might just be wearing down a bit, as he's playing pretty much everyday for the Twins and already has 192 plate appearances as a result; he had just 335 in 2023 and 275 in 2022. Jeffers is hitting .266/.356/.496 over the past two seasons, so I'm inclined to just keep rolling him out there as my starting catcher in pretty much all formats. | | Reed Garrett, RP, Mets – With Edwin Diaz on the IL, Garrett got the save Thursday, working around a walk to preserve a one-run lead. Garrett has been one of the best relievers in baseball this season, though I still expect Adam Ottavino to be a factor while Diaz is out – Ottavino had worked the previous two games and was presumably unavailable for this one. | | Elvis Peguero, RP, Brewers – With Trevor Megill day-to-day after being hit by a comebacker the other day, Peguero got the save against the Cubs, allowing one hit that he worked around to close out the 6-4 win. If you're in a daily lineups league, maybe you can steal another save or two before Megill comes back, but that could literally happen tomorrow. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | Golazo Matchday | Tomorrow, watch as German giants Borussia Dortmund take on the kings of Europe, Real Madrid, to determine the winner of the most prestigious club competition in the world. The match starts live at 3 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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