| | | | Friday, June 21, 2024 | | How about this for a stat of the night: Jackson Merrill homered yet again Thursday night, his ninth of the season and sixth in the past eight games. That gives Merrill six homers over the past eight games, making him just the second center fielder in MLB history to homer six times in an eight-game span at 21 or younger. The other one to do it? | | Willie Mays. | | During the week of Mays' passing, and on the night MLB held a special game in Rickwood Field, the first game where Mays ever played as a professional, Merrill matched at least one Mays' innumerable feats. That's pretty special. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but as Mark Twain is famously credited with saying, sometimes it rhymes. That's a pretty special moment. | | Merrill is, I don't think I need to say, not Willie Mays. But he's an awfully talented young player who is now on a four-plus WAR pace and seems to be figuring out how to turn a contact-oriented swing into one that can generate some power. Outside of the past week-plus, Merrill hasn't exactly taken the majors by storm, but he's suddenly on close to a 20-20 pace despite making his debut as a 20-year-old, and that might make him a pretty special player. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got everything else you need to know about from Friday's action around the majors, plus my usual preview of the upcoming weekend's most interesting pitchers, from the struggling aces we're hoping to see more from to the waiver-wire pitchers it might finally be time to buy in on. Let's get to it: | | | | What to watch this weekend | | | Give us a reason to be optimistic
| | Pablo Lopez, Twins @OAK, Sunday – I think this is like the fourth straight week I've included Lopez in this section of the newsletter, but I haven't really lost faith despite his 5.63 ERA. Lopez isn't executing well right now, something Lance Brozdowski highlighted specifically with his four-seamer usage recently. Lopez's velocity and movement profiles still look almost identical to last season, so the answer is pretty simple: He just has to start pitching better. I can't guarantee he will, but I'm very confident it's coming. I know you're frustrated, but there's no world in which I'm dropping Lopez right now. Even if he struggles here. I'm aggressively trying to buy him. | | Jared Jones, Pirates vs. TB, Saturday – It's been a steady decline for Jones, who went from a 2.86 ERA in April to 3.55 in May and now, in June, a 4.60 mark. His control has regressed of late, and he's really struggling with left-handed hitters, which isn't terribly surprising for a guy who only throws his changeup 7.5% of the time. I still believe in the talent, but it also certainly looks like we may have gotten over our skis a bit early on – I may have compared him to Spencer Strider more than once. The Rays are a beatable matchup, and it'd be nice to see Jones do exactly that. | | Jesus Luzardo, Marlins vs. SEA, Saturday – Among the pitchers drafted as must-start options this season, Luzardo is probably the one I'm actually most panicked about. He has lost 1.5 mph on his four-seam fastball, taking it from a pitch that ranked 45th out of 70 qualifying four-seamers in whiff rate and 43rd in expected wOBA allowed last season to 70th and 65th out of 72 this season, respectively. His changeup and slider remain weapons, but if the fastball is going to be this bad, I'm not sure it matters. I need to see more fastball velocity from Luzardo, pronto. | | Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays @CLE, Sunday – It's hard to identify what the problem is for Kikuchi right now. His fastball has been a bit less effective on contact than last season, and his breaking balls haven't been quite as effective, despite similar velocity and movement profiles as last season. He's had a couple of rough outings of late, but on the whole, remains a very solid pitcher – probably one who will provide excellent strikeout numbers but merely decent ratios and the occasional blow-up. This is a tough matchup, so let's hope he can avoid one of those blow-ups here. | | | | Still worth rostering? | | Jordan Montgomery, Diamondbacks @PHI, Friday – The thing that makes Montgomery tough to value right now is, the case for him in Fantasy the past couple of years has been more about him providing a safe, projectable floor, rather than a high ceiling, and now he's decidedly not doing that. There have been some promising signs of late, but he needs to string together a few more good starts in a row before we can get on board, really. The key to watch is the curveball, which has gained a couple of inches of break and has become a less effective pitch. He started to tighten that up in his last start, and if he can continue to refine that, he could still be a viable Fantasy option moving forward. | | Ryan Pepiot , Rays @PIT, Friday – I still want to believe in Pepiot, whose 3.42 expected ERA is more than a run better than his actual mark. His fastball is a legitimately elite pitch, with the best whiff rate among all four-seamers and the third-best expected wOBA, but I do wonder if his reliance on that pitch might not make him a bit too predictable. He's been moving in the wrong direction since a strong start but is still racking up a ton of strikeouts and limiting free passes. But at some point, you've gotta keep runs off the board, and he has just one quality start in five tries since coming off the IL. We can only project improvement on an unproven pitcher for so long before we give up. | | Jordan Hicks, Giants @STL, Sunday – I fully expect Hicks to have a good start here, and I just don't know how much it's likely to matter for Fantasy. He has a 2.82 ERA and ranks just 51st among starting pitchers in Roto scoring because he just doesn't provide much volume – Hicks hasn't gone more than 5.1 innings in any of his past nine starts. That limits his win potential and basically guarantees he won't provide many quality starts, which limits his value even in H2H points leagues, which should be his best format. I think he's probably someone who needs to be viewed as more of a streamer than someone you need to remain married to on your roster, given the low ceiling here. | | Drew Thorpe, White Sox @DET, Saturday – Coming off a five-walk, zero-strikeout effort, Thorpe should have a pretty short leash for Fantasy players at this point. This is a good matchup, and he's a good prospect, but he's the kind of prospect who gets a boost from projectability, rather than upside because his arsenal outside of his changeup is pretty pedestrian. It's possible he can make the profile play up with elite command, but … well, five walks, zero strikeouts. I'm willing to hang on to him to see if he can take advantage of the matchup, but if he doesn't shine here, Thorpe will be a pretty easy drop. | | Andrew Abbott, Reds vs. BOS, Friday – I'm gonna be honest, I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop with Abbott all season, despite the solid 3.42 ERA. He just isn't getting any strikeouts at all, and this approach seems totally unsustainable in that home park. He's gotten away with it so far, but there's little upside, and I'd be happy to drop Abbott for anyone with some upside. A poor showing here would probably lead many of you to start agreeing with me, I'll bet. | | | | Time to buy in? | | Reese Olson, Tigers vs. CHW, Sunday (64%) – Olson's a tough one to crack, because he has two exceptional secondary offerings in his slider and changeup, and then two fastballs that don't even generate 10% whiff rates right now. If he can get to two strikes, there's a lot to like here, but he's often giving up too much hard contact on his way there – his 46.5% hard-hit rate is in the bottom 9% among pitchers right now. I think on the whole, the profile should make him a viable starting Fantasy option, and one who is probably under-rostered right now. But we'd sure like to see more strikeouts from him, wouldn't we? | | Jonathan Cannon , White Sox @DET, Sunday – I'm trying to find reasons to buy into Cannon after he has gone 15.2 innings with one earned run allowed over his past two starts, but I'm just having trouble with it. He's had some pretty miserable numbers in the minors, allowing a 5.65 ERA across 19 starts between Double-A and Triple-A, and that alone is going to make it tough to buy in. He does have a nice heavy sinker that batters have struggled to do much with, and his sweeper looks like a pretty strong pitch – maybe not an elite swing-and-miss pitch, but a pretty good one otherwise. But the whole profile just doesn't do much to get me excited. I could be wrong, of course, and the matchup against Detroit bodes pretty well for Cannon as a streamer. But as someone who needs to be added | | Davidjohn Herz, Nationals @COL, Friday – I really wish Herz's first start after his breakout performance wasn't coming at Coors Field, because I pretty much don't think we can ever learn much from starts there, good or bad. The ball literally moves differently at Coors than it does anywhere else, so, even if Herz has a great start, it'll be hard to say whether it has any predictive value. Still, he's obviously a name to watch after that 13-strikeout showing against the Marlins, and we'd like to see him keep racking up big whiff numbers with his fastball and changeup. | | News and Notes | | Aaron Judge returned to the lineup after missing one game with a left hand injury. He finished 2-3 with his 27th HR, 3 RBI, so I guess the hand is perfectly fine! | | Astros Manager Joe Espada said he's hopeful Kyle Tucker will be ready to begin baseball activities this weekend. He's been out since June 4 with a right shin contusion, with this injury dragging on much longer than anyone initially anticipated. | | CJ Abrams has missed two straight due to a cyst on his left wrist. Hopefully, he's good to return this weekend because the Nationals are in Colorado, but I'd wait until lineups are in before setting them, if you're in one of those leagues that allows weekend changes for hitters. | | Zac Gallen is scheduled to throw another simulated game early next week and could be reinstated from the IL shortly thereafter. He's working his way back from a hamstring injury, but may not end up needing a rehab assignment. | | Jordan Westburg was back in the lineup Thursday after missing one game with a hip injury. | | Gleyber Torres was removed due to tightness in his right groin Thursday. Aaron Boone noted that he was taking a cautious approach and that the issue isn't expected to be serious. Maybe the lopsided nature of that game's score played a part. | | Nolan Jones has missed two straight because of an illness. | | Max Kepler exited Thursday because of neck spasms. | | Jose Soriano was placed on the IL with an abdominal infection. | | Kyle Gibson is likely to make his next scheduled start Tuesday against the Braves. | | Robert Gasser will undergo season-ending elbow surgery, though as of now it isn't known whether it will be fully Tommy John or something less significant. We should know soon, but it seems all but certain that his season is over. | | We haven't heard much about Esteury Ruiz recently but apparently he's progressing through a strength program due to his wrist injury and is expected to begin baseball activities within two weeks of its completion. | | Adael Amador was removed Thursday due to a mild oblique strain. | | Prospect updates | | Jasson Dominguez will be out up to eight weeks due to a significant left oblique strain. It's a tough break for a guy who had to undergo Tommy John surgery just after making his MLB debut a year ago, and now it looks like he'll likely be out until late August, at least. We may not see the 21-year-old at all at the majors this season. | | The Dodgers are recalling Landon Knack to start Friday against the Angels . At Triple-A this season, Knack has a 3.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 52 K over 48.1 IP in the PCL. He didn't show much strikeout upside in four earlier starts with the Dodgers but had a decent 11% whiff rate and solid 7.2% walk rate, so there could be some upside with that lineup backing him up. Knack is just 7% rostered and is worth a look in deeper leagues. | | The Astros are promoting one of their top pitching prospects Jake Bloss to make his debut Friday against the Orioles. That's an awfully tough landing spot for the former third-round pick, who has made just eight starts above A-ball in the minors. So far this season, he has a 1.74 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 60 K over 62 IP, with a 16.8% swinging strike rate at High-A, though just a 10% rate at Double-A. My expectations aren't terribly high for his debut, but I'll be watching closely just in case he surprises with some upside. | | Thursday's standouts | | Luis Gil, Yankees vs. BAL: 1.1 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – Well, Gil got all of the regression out of the way in one start, so that was nice of him. He was never going to sustain a 2.00-ish ERA, and even a sub-3.00 ERA still feels like asking too much in the long run. The bigger issue is how the Yankees' inevitable desire to limit Gil's innings will bump up against our desire to have him remain in our Fantasy lineups, as Gil has already thrown more innings this season than any since 2021. Gil is still one of the best pitchers in baseball so far, but there will almost certainly be a point in the relatively near future where that is no longer true. If you can trade him right now, I still think that's the smartest option. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals vs. ARI: 5 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – It can sometimes be a cop-out to say that the BABIP Gods just weren't on a given player's side one day, but that really does seem like the case here. Gore didn't give up a batted ball over 100 mph, and only had four over 95 mph, two of which turned into outs; that means eight of the 10 hits he allowed were not hard-hit balls. I'm not trying to argue Gore was great or anything here, but this one just doesn't strike me as particularly worrisome. | | Seth Lugo, Royals @OAK: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – If you've been reading this newsletter all season, you know I'm not really much of a believer in Lugo, but for the most part, I'd say he pitched even better than this line Thursday. He had a shutout going into the seventh inning with a low pitch count, so they left him out there with a 2-0 lead and he just sort of ran out of steam. Lugo has earned the benefit of the doubt from his coaching staff to pitch deep into games consistently, and while I think he's probably more of a high-3.00s pitcher than his current 2.42 ERA (his xERA is 3.91, for what it's worth), this was still a very good start. | | Gavin Stone, Dodgers @COL: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Stone really struggled in his first couple of starts, but he now has a 2.38 ERA over his past 12 starts, with seven quality starts and eight wins in that span. I don't buy the ERA being sustainable, but if he settles in somewhere south of his current 3.97 xERA with that Dodgers team backing him up, I think he's probably going to remain something like a must-start pitcher moving forward. Not an ace, but someone you're happy to have around most of the time. | | Simeon Woods Richardson , Twins vs. TB: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Against the right matchups, I think you can feel pretty good about streaming Woods Richardson these days, but I don't expect him to be much more than a streamer. He has just one start out of 12 with more than six strikeouts, and just hasn't shown very much swing-and-miss potential so far. This was a decent matchup, and we got a pretty good result out of it; I'm not sure I want to roll the dice next time out against Arizona, but he could face the Tigers and White Sox in the two after that, which is pretty good. He's not a bad bench pitcher to have around. | | Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks @WAS: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – That's now three quality starts in his past four tries for Nelson, but with just two or fewer strikeouts in three of those four starts, I really don't see much reason to get excited here. He had a decent matchup and took advantage, but he also still has a 5.18 ERA overall and an xERA nearing 5.00 for the season, so this one seems pretty safe to ignore. | | Royce Lewis, 3B, Twins – Yeah, he homered again. What else is new? That's nine in 15 games, with a 1.377 OPS. It's a tiny sample size, but as I wrote Thursday, I don't necessarily think you can just slap the "sell-high" tag on Lewis and call it a day ; if I had him on a team right now, I'd be very hesitant to sell him, even if I understand, logically, that might be the best decision. I would still need to be bowled over by any potential trade offer at this point. | | Jake McCarthy , OF, Diamondbacks – McCarthy had three more hits Thursday and is now hitting .364 in the month of June, which makes him a decent target on waivers if you're looking for an outfielder with some speed. I don't really buy him being capable of contributing much beyond said speed, but he does have a career-best .273 expected batting average this season, thanks to a more line-drive centric approach. If he gives us a .270-ish average and remains a standout in steals, McCarthy can certainly be useful in five-outfielder leagues, though he's not really an everyday player, and was a pretty fringe-y Fantasy option after opening last season with some hype, so expectations should remain pretty limited for now. | | | | | | | | The First Cut | | PGA Tour | The First Cut takes you inside the ropes of the golf world, on the PGA Tour and beyond. Tournament previews and picks, deep dives into the players and storylines that matter in the sport of golf.
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